Interesting Odds Question?

[RiverMonkey]

?

Here an interesting odds question (probably pretty tough to calculate too).

Anyone know how to calculate the odds that someone else holds top-hand with two pair better than your two pair when both your pairs, and your opponents pairs are disguised?

On the Flop?
On 4th?
On the river?

What are the odds that the final result will be:
(i) tie with the bottom pair and lose on the top pair?
(ii) tie on the top pair, but lose on the bottom pair?

[RiverMonkey]

I'm new to the forum and decided to post this question in the 'Hold'Em Strategies' section rather arbitrarily. Please let me know if this type of question belongs else-where or perhaps doesn't belong at all

Given that there have been lots of views of my post, and zero responses leads me to believe the post is either out-of-place, not considered informative, too difficult to calculate, old news (answer can be found elsewhere) or something similar.

Thanks!

[Humphrind]

It's a little tough to figure out the math on this, but I'll give it my half-assed attempt.

The odds of this are 50/50. Either they have it, or they don't.

Even if the odds are a million to 1, how do you know that you aren't in that 1 time. You have to use reads, study the board and use your notes on other players to find out if it happened or not.

[RiverMonkey]

In other words, are you saying that:

the odds are sufficiently close enough to being a coin toss, that they don't help you enough to make good, sound poker decisions.?

When I'm holding something like Q6s and I limp in and the flop looks likes KQ6, maybe I shouldn't be as aggresive as I've been to-date. Relatively often, I find out that my opponent had K7 prior to the flop, and hits another 7 on the turn or river to beat my two-pair (even though, they were probably drawing to only a set in their own mind). In other words, I always think about the possibility of my opponent having top-pair kings, but when I have two disguised pairs, maybe I tend to discount the drawing potential of my opponent's Ks too much. (I'm assuming of course that the odds are in my favour with two pair relative to my opponent hitting a set (they only have two-outs (the two remaining Ks) after the flop)).

Maybe I should run this kind of scenario through one of those monte carlo simulators?? Is there a good, freeware one that I can get?

On a related note, I'm sure that how short-handed the game is a BIG factor here re: making the right decisions.

Anyhow, I guess my bottom line question is: "Is there a general, recommended strategy for playing two-pair post-flop, when neither pair is top-pair"? Clearly, the answer will depend on Table Texture (loose/tight, aggressive/passive), and Number of players, but any guidance would be appreciated. Maybe I need to lay-down/let-go of my two pairs more often than I do now.

BTW, the more I read the refinement of my original question, the more I realize it should be posted in the Beginners Circle

[Iconoclastic]

Bottom two pair...if your opponent is a TOTAL MANIAC or just extremely loose, play it like the nuts and bet big and reraise all in if you think they'll call it.

Against all other non Passive opponents, reraise a bet in Late Position or bet the pot if no one else has bet. Fold to a reraise at any time. If you get called check-call down to river unless they suddenly show alot of strength, which probably means they were slowplaying nuts or made a good hand, in which case you fold. I don't like betting again because getting called once means there's a good chance you'll get called again, and you really don't know where you stand. Maybe they have a similar weak two pair.

Against Passive (Rocks) opponents, don't reraise their bet, cuz it usually means they have a better hand than you. Call or Fold.

If you improve your hand, then just generally play it like the nuts.

[zenbitz]

I totally diagree with hump. If it's a million to one that he has it (i.e, you are beat) then you should play the odds and bet.

UNLESS if you win, you win nothing, and if you lose you are, say, out of a tournament or dead.

THe odds are actually not calcuable unless you assume something about the player (i.e, have a read)

So, your example:
You foolishly (or blindidly...) are in a pot with Q6o and the flop comes
KQ6

So, there are two 2p that beat you KQ and K6, plus a tie Q6.
If he is playing a random hand (say you were SB, and he was BB)

You know the identity of 5 cards, so there are 47 others, and hence 47*46 = 2162 possible holdings.

Of these, 6 are KQ, 9 are K6, and 4 are Q6.
So, post flop there are 15 hands that beat you (not including KK/QQ/66)
odds, are 0.7%.

BUT, you might have info - about the player and actions. Even in the blinds, KQ might raise you, so that's probably less likely. K6 and Q6 are really only going to be played by very loose players, blinds, or huge stacks

what you probably really need to be worried about is 66 which is 1 in 2000 randomly, but most likely to be limped in

UNLESS, the guy likes to limp his QQ/KK... but you probably already figured that out

When the turn comes up - if it's <6, then there are 9 more possible KX TP that beat you, if it's >6, then there are 18 more, but now there are only 46*45 possible hands (2070).

KQ64: odds you are beaten climb to 1%
KQ69: odds you are beaten climb to 1.6%

(not including straights or flushes)
The only other case I think that qualifies is if the turn is a K.
Now all pocket pairs beat you (but you still have outs), plus KX

non KQ6 pockets: 60
KX hands: 2*46 = 92

You are behind 7.3% to a random calling station.
But really you are more likely to be beaten, unless you both checked the flop, because it's very likely he had SOMETHING.

But that means you have to play poker, not cards

[RiverMonkey]

Very infomative answers ... thanks folks!

BTW, in my made-up scenario I limped in with Q6 suited ..... not offsuit. That's a pretty standard limp-in hand isn't it?

[zilch]

RiverMonkey I think that you should read the starting hand guide on the front of this site as a guide to which hands to start with. You will find the Q6s is not a hand you want to generally limp with. There's not a lot of flops that will give you a hand that you can feel really comfotable with. You will need to be a really good post flop player to get away with playing hands like that.

[koolmoe]

Very infomative answers ... thanks folks!

BTW, in my made-up scenario I limped in with Q6 suited ..... not offsuit. That's a pretty standard limp-in hand isn't it?

You generally need two of three things from unpaired hole cards:

-High card power
-Suited
-Connectedness

Q6s has only one of these. As a general rule you should muck it as you need to win 16 small bets to win on the merits of the flush alone. Q9s is the lowest suited Q I would recommend playing, and then only from late position.

[TylerK]

Ignoring the question of "what are you doing in the hand with Q6" for a moment...

The way I like to think of these situations is "what hands will he call a bet with?" This always depends upon your current situation, your table, the players, etc. In this situation with a handful of limpers, you might see hands like:
KT?
QJ?
66?

KQ PROBABLY would raise preflop. Again, depends on the player. K-rag is probably not something to worry about, certainly K6 is not a hand people usually play.

I would say that realistically the only hand you might be behind to in the situation you described is 66. There may also be something like a T9 on a draw, etc. Given that fact, I would simply just bet the flop pretty hard. Most of the time you're going to take it down there, as your 2-pair here is simply not a profitable hand in an unraised pot.

[Fnord]

Most of the time you're going to take it down there, as your 2-pair here is simply not a profitable hand in an unraised pot.

In what game worth playing?

[TylerK]

Most of the time you're going to take it down there, as your 2-pair here is simply not a profitable hand in an unraised pot.

In what game worth playing?

By "profitable," I mean as far as getting a lot of money into the pot. Sure, I'd like to find a game every time where K7 will call my bets all the way down to the river on this hand, but I don't think that I can always expect to find that game.