Luck vs. Skill: How You Know (Poker Philosophy)

[Manomanman]

One of the first things that poker pop culture teaches us is that poker is a game of skill. We hear it all the time in posts, it's the theme of "Rounders," and it's a clear fact of the game.

A lot of new or even experienced players wonder, "Did I play this hand right?" or "Am I just on a bad luck streak?" or "What is the best strategy for limit holdem?" etc. etc. Fundamentally, they want someone (or perhaps a computer program) to help them separate the "luck" factor of poker from the "skill" factor. They want to know if their success or failure is influenced more by one or the other.

There are two ways to tell: results and intuition.

Are you a winning poker player or a losing poker player? First, subtract the rake. If you play at a B&M casino, figure in that you gave the house about $8 per hour, then add that to your overall figure. (ie. if you've played 5 hours and you're down $40, you're a break-even poker player). In my mind, if you have played a good amount of poker (this is subjective; it could be 10 hours for one person and 3 months straight for the next) and you are up, then you are doing something right. Keep in mind that if you've been playing poker for years and, minus the rake, you are down, then you have probably had some systematic lack of skill in your game (this doesn't mean you suck, you could have poor table selection, you play above your bankroll, you have a leak in a small aspect of your game, you are too loose for the limit you play etc.). If you are really in the red, find those leaks and plug them fast. If you are break even (minus rake) or are a winner, keep improving your game and take it to the next level.

The second way you know if you have "skill" and are winning or losing due to or in spite of your skill, is blind intuition. When you sit down at a table, do you know EXACTLY who's money your going to take it, how much of it you're going to take, how you're going to take it, and when you're going to take it? Or, on the other hand, do you sit down and find your stack dwindling, saying to yourself, "What's going on here?" Do you KNOW when to make those tough calls? Do you KNOW when to make those tough laydowns? Most importantly, are you sitting there having a good time while everyone else is scratching their heads, asking you stupid questions like, "You got Aces? I think you've got it." Are you getting people frustrated and capping it with you/going all in when you have the nuts? [If when you play poker it isn't like this, don't feel inadequate...polish your game until you "get it."]

I'm a break even-for-life player. If I got all of my rake + tips back, I would probably be up about $400 for-life. (Damn, that's a lot of money to "pay to play" in one year!) But when I sit down at any table I say to myself, "Piece of cake." I am playing at limits where the players don't have me baffled. I am never in over my head. I couldn't by any stretch of the imagination go pro, because I know I'm not that good yet. In sum, differentiating luck from skill in your game comes from experience. After learning how to adequately play the game, you need to put in some good time and then evalutate your net gain minus the rake, taking into account your subjective "feel" for the game.

When you never have to ask questions like, "Should I have laid down AK preflop?" then I think, at that point, you should have the tools necessary to adequately evaluate how much skill you have.

[bigred]

When you sit down at a table, do you know EXACTLY who's money your going to take it, how much of it you're going to take it, how you're going to take it, and when you're going to take it?

That is a great line, I would love to be able to do that. Where can I buy this "intuition", is Walmart selling it?


In all seriousness, great post Mano. I hope I can reach that level.

[LeFou]

are you sitting there having a good time while everyone else is scratching their heads, asking you stupid questions like, "You got Aces? I think you've got it."

This cracked me up. So many many people at the table drop these dopey comments, e.g.
flop 6 9 T
and you bet so they'll say "oh, you got 78, huh?" as if it takes a really acute observer to be able to count to ten. Tolerable the first half dozen times, then it's pretty tiresome.