Another "can we value jam the river" spot

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 11/8 over 200 hands. Seems reasonably aggressive postflop, but probably just because he always has such a strong range after nitfolding nearly everything pre.

I'm aware people are going to say "why the turn check", and I'm open to thoughts on it, but my thinking is that he's a nit and a lot of what he continued on the flop with is liable to just fold the turn if I bet again. I think if I check back the turn, his QQ/JJ/TT etc. can probably bet blank rivers or call a small bet, wheras they just fold if I bet the turn. His AJ and AXs also might not call the turn, but probably bet (or call a small bet) on the river.

River is another tough(ish) spot I think (nice to be in tough spots with boats huh?) - he's 11/8 ffs, when he raises the river I actually think I might even be beat quite often (but luckily a lot of the suited ace boat combos are blocked). Of course, in accordance with zeebo's law, I'm never folding.

Can we value jam the river?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $9.13 (91.3 bb)
SB: $11.19 (111.9 bb)
BB: $19.49 (194.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $19.14 (191.4 bb)
MP: $23.05 (230.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6 6
Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 2 3 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.25) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.25) A (2 players)
BB bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $8.70

[griffey24]

3 combos 22, 3 combos 33, assuming he's so tight he's only calling Axs then 2 combos A2s (h,s), 1 combo A3s (hh), 1 combo A6s (ss).

So we beat 6 combos and we lose to 4 combos. So right now we're ahead 60%. This guy is SUCH a nit though, it worries me he's only gonna b/3b Aces full for value. It might be nitty but I think I'm actually just flatting this vs this nitfest.

[Cobra_1878]

What was villains 3bet% and FTCB%?

Your hand is massively under repped, you look more likely to have Ax in your range here rather than a full house. I'm not even sure an 11/8 calls, OOP in BB, with small suited Ax hands, he might just fold them pre. I think he is much more more likely to have AJs-A8s here (depending on stats I requested)

[Savy]

I think the Ace on the turn is a great card to barrel. As it's the type of card that we'll be betting with on a lot of our bluffs. It also likely hits villains range.

I also think you can station this off. Your raise on the river can look like a poor bluff imo, and this is the top of your range bar one combo of AA I'd assume.

[OngBonga]

I'm stacking river. I'd expect to see 22 and 33 in his range if he has A2s and A3s, and I'm expecting him to consider all of this the nuts vs our range. If he thinks we have AK and AQ enough times when we raise river, he's gonna raise his underboats. He's not going to fold 22 or 33 so right there we have enough combos to make a proft vs everything we can possibly lose to. No brainer really.

[griffey24]

Yaah after reading some responses, if ppl at these games could be b/3b stuff like A8+ (ie: way overplaying their hands), then this is for sure a jam.

[abelardx]

For 100 bbs I would always get all-in here. Deep I might just call but probably I'd go for it in the heat of the moment. That's probably not the thing to do at higher stakes but at 10 nl it's good for a couple of reasons.

1. We slowplayed our big hand hoping for just this scenario. Now that we've got it we should go with it.

2. There's a psychological thing with microstakes players especially nits. They sit around waiting for a good hand and when they finally get one they tend to way overplay it. I would expect villain to have a big ace here most of the time, then a slowplayed straight, much less frequently better boats and quads.

[kickass]

I dont think 11/8 has A2-10 in they range because yr deep he might have called pre but nits are not the adjustment types. I think that they are at least discounted 22 33 are exactly the hands I expect so im jam cos nobody folds boats ever.

[BorisTheSpider]

I dont think 11/8 has A2-10 in they range because yr deep he might have called pre but nits are not the adjustment types. I think that they are at least discounted 22 33 are exactly the hands I expect so im jam cos nobody folds boats ever.

Yeah, I "Zeebo's law'd" someone last night with quads - like you said, no-one ever folds boats.

I'm sort of coming round to jamming, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it at the time - I took one look at "11/8" and wanted to do a variation on Ongs advice in the other thread - "call and try to forget it ever happened".

[BorisTheSpider]

Yaah after reading some responses, if ppl at these games could be b/3b stuff like A8+ (ie: way overplaying their hands), then this is for sure a jam.

That's the thing - can enough people really 3b a bare ace, even AK here? I'm not sure - it's a rare enough spot. On the flop, for sure, you can expect people to get it in, even deep, on AAx with AK and probably AQ, but 3b the river I'm not so sure. AK even is only the 7th nuts here and the micros are pretty nitty - I wouldn't put it past an 11/8 to fold the nut flush for example on a paired river to this kind of action.

I think the way this hand played out probably does mean he can 3b a strong ace because I'm so under-repped.

[abelardx]

The timing can be important too. If he 3-bets quickly he could be reacting emotionally. If he stops and thinks about it he's more likely to have you beat.

[BorisTheSpider]

For 100 bbs I would always get all-in here. Deep I might just call but probably I'd go for it in the heat of the moment.

Yeah, agreed I'd snap shove 100bb deep, but we are nearly 200bb deep here.

1. We slowplayed our big hand hoping for just this scenario. Now that we've got it we should go with it.

Well, we slowplayed hoping he'd improve enough (or just overplay enough) to play a big pot. That doesn't necessarily mean all the money has to go in - we still play a big pot just calling his river 3bet.

2. There's a psychological thing with microstakes players especially nits. They sit around waiting for a good hand and when they finally get one they tend to way overplay it. I would expect villain to have a big ace here most of the time, then a slowplayed straight, much less frequently better boats and quads.

I actually think this is really solid insight - I had another couple of hands last night where a similar dynamic played out, with nits showing up in quite big pots with stuff I wouldn't expect to call the river, and you're probably right that when you sit around folding everything for hours on end, you tend to get married to your hand as soon as you make something half decent.

[Savy]

Have you never noticed that you can get nits to pay off overpairs that are clearly beat? When you've waited two hours for AA to play a hand you're damn well going to play it till the end.

You still should definitely bet the turn and GII btw. Out of interest fancy spoilering what he had? I'm just interested to see if someone so nitty ever does show up with A2o here for example.

[BorisTheSpider]

Have you never noticed that you can get nits to pay off overpairs that are clearly beat? When you've waited two hours for AA to play a hand you're damn well going to play it till the end.

Yeah, I think that's highly player dependant - I see two postflop tendencies in nits, one group seem capable of folding almost any hand other than the nuts to action, or they are so weak tight you get to showdown and laugh when they take down a 20bb river pot with an overpair, or check down a set once the third card to a flush comes. The other group, as you said, get married to anything they play and will stack off with overpairs on really scary boards where they are just crushed whenever there's any action.

[BorisTheSpider]

You still should definitely bet the turn and GII btw. Out of interest fancy spoilering what he had? I'm just interested to see if someone so nitty ever does show up with A2o here for example.

Yeah, I hate the turn check. I need to stop getting fancy with stuff like this, it's ridiculous.

Spoiler: Show

He had AJo. I have trouble even figuring how he has this preflop, let alone how an 11/8 floats the flop with bare overs, then seemingly wants to get all the money in on the river with the 9th nuts, but there you go - like you said, some people fold all day long then get married to their hand whenever they make anything reasonably strong.

[Savy]

I think him GII is kind of a case of thinking you're FOS, it seems the natural reaction for people to want to raise bluffs when they have a good hand but in reality all it means is they fold out all bluffs and get snapped by nutty hands.

[BorisTheSpider]

I think him GII is kind of a case of thinking you're FOS, it seems the natural reaction for people to want to raise bluffs when they have a good hand but in reality all it means is they fold out all bluffs and get snapped by nutty hands.

Yeah, just because someone is nitty as hell and has a really strong preflop range, doesn't mean they are not really, really bad. I think you have a good point - people at these stakes often don't really understand why they are betting, in fact, that's probably the biggest difference between the bad players and the ones who are actively improving. It seems like a typical bad player thought process here to think "I probably have the best hand so I'm going to raise" without considering what worse could ever call or raise.

[The Bean Counter]

Definitely jamming this one at 10nl Boris. An 11/8 doesn't have any better boats in his range and I'd expect him to stack off with everything else that takes this line (which I'd expect to be AQ/AK almost exclusively as I doubt this guy even mines deuces,treys or 45s oop).