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GSFD - flop 3bet

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  1. #1

    Default GSFD - flop 3bet

    Unknown villain.

    Our equity against [QQ+, 99, 22, ATcc, A2cc-A8cc, JTcc] is 37%, if he can also have AQ we have 42% equity.

    We have 39% vs [QQ+, 99, 22]

    If you call, why?
    If you jam, why?

    Quite aside from that, if he just 3bet jams the flop which we need 43% equity to call, do you fold given the equities given above? It seems kind of close to me, and I'm not sure I can fold in-game, but maybe I should be able to. If we think he can have AQ and can spaz with JTo etc. then it's OK to call, but I think perhaps a fold is better.

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $14.12 (141.2 bb)
    Hero (SB): $31.18 (311.8 bb)
    BB: $9.95 (99.5 bb)
    UTG: $5.29 (52.9 bb)
    MP: $10.18 (101.8 bb)
    CO: $5 (50 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with K J
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO folds, BTN calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds

    Flop: ($1) 9 Q 2 (3 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $0.70, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.30, MP raises to $5.10
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 10-07-2013 at 09:56 PM.
  2. #2
    I think we can fold here just because we don't have the nut flush draw. If he has Axcc or a set, which it kinda looks like, then our equity sucks. But the pot is huge so I don't mind going with it either. Probably in play I would call and fold to a big bet on a blank turn or stack off with a T or club.

    The flop 3bet does not say tptk to me. It could be but I'd read it more as a big hand, 2pair+ or nfd.

    If we call and hit a K ott and he shoves I'm not sure I could fold getting 3:1 in a huge pot. I'm not at all sure that's right tho.

    edit: I just thought about that. If we call and don't improve ott we would still have the pot odds to call with 12 outs. So it looks like with the bloated pot and the great odds that I am calling and calling regardless, which is better than shoving on the off chance he is spazzing with a worse fd that kind of thing. I think we're pot committed all the way. The only way we don't go all the way is if we call the flop, the turn checks through and everything bricks out, or if the turn pairs the board.
    Last edited by abelardx; 10-07-2013 at 10:42 PM.
  3. #3
    Your decision comes when you raise the flop. As far as I'm concerned if you raise the flop you're playing for stacks. So either c/c flop or get it in now as played. Makes no sense to c/r such a strong draw, and then be like "oh shoot, now what" when he 3bets you.

    All-innn.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    My own reasoning for jamming is that lots of turns kill our action. I feel like that is sufficient reason, since I'm never folding the turn with what's left behind, so since I'm stacking off no matter what, it might as well be on the flop while I'm confident I can get all the money in.
  5. #5
    Lots of turns kill your action? You have K high, there is no action to be killed.

    You're jamming because of all the dead money in the pot, because you have good equity vs his calling range, because you would jam sets/two pairs here and because ppl make folds in spots you least expect it and there is sometimes (albeit small) fold equity here or he just has air.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

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