99 on pretty safe board, $300 BI $150K tournament at Borgata

[baudib]

This hand is almost an exact replica of a hand I posted several years ago (http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ghlight=folded) but it happened live and I decided not to wuss out this time.

Villain in hand has been at table for 4 hands and raised/3-bet/4-bet every hand. First hand he 4-bet shoved AQ and won vs. JJ. Another hand he got it in on turn with ATo vs. KK with 16 outs and lost.

With blinds/antes at 500/1000/200 I open with 99 from MP to 2,400 and he 3-bets from BB to 6,000. I flat. I have about 40,000 and he has 33,000.

Flop is


He leads for 7,500...
Do I shove or let him fire again on turn?

[OngBonga]

I think I'm calling this. I expect him to fold losing hands when we shove. I'm certainly not folding.

[drmcboy]

since he is BB I like a larger open so you can 4B shove more comfortably, but with these antes I'm cramming anyway.

As played I call.

[dombo]

Did you had those stacksizes at the start of the hand or on the flop?

[eberetta1]

This is gut wrenching. Opponent is doing exactly what they should be doing, c-betting whether they hit the flop or not. I mean I have seen too many opponents raise and they have a pair higher than top pair on the board.
I would not let him have the chance to draw another card because more than likely opponent has two face cards, so I would shove hoping opponent folds down to save their remaining chips.

[OngBonga]

I would not let him have the chance to draw another card because more than likely opponent has two face cards, so I would shove hoping opponent folds down to save their remaining chips.

If we KNOW he has two overcards to our pair, then why would we want him to fold? He might spike his pair, but he's probably going to miss. I wouldn't want him to fold flop with overcards, I'd want him to bet turn again. If turn or river is ace or king, then maybe we have to fold later. Chances are it won't be.

Raising for potection doesn't make any sense. We either raise for value or as a bluff. If he rarely folds better and never calls worse, then raising is setting money on fire.

[dthorne04]

why we no 4b jam pre

(call flop I guess)

[baudib]

why we no 4b jam pre

didn't want him to fold

[drmcboy]

I keep looking at your hand to see if you have AA. I get that he is likely a clown/on tilt but you're racing (esp with dead money) many clown hands and you seem likely to either pay off too much or fold too much post. I think the idea of 'slow playing' here is iffy against someone you know well, and insane vs someone you have seen play 4 hands. And the two he showed down are maybe light, but it isn't like he had a 37.

[donkbee]

^ good post

[baudib]

of course it's a good post, I don't really disagree with anything anyone has said in this thread.

I just wonder though if we are shoving to get him to fold out stuff like KJ/AT, which is a really good result for us, or if we're just shoving because we're ahead of his range and it's def +EV to shove and we won't make any mistakes postflop.

(Drunk) Edit: I mean, isn't he going to spew more if we let him? Shoving might help him play correctly...

eh

[drmcboy]

You made this thread, so it seems like there is doubt (correctly) that he's just going to two barrel 100% of flops no matter what.

A much more reasonable scenario to me is that you pick up a c-bet pretty often, but 1/5 of the time or w/e you put the rest of your money in with a 2 outer which I think is going to kill all the profit from tricking him into playing this hand pre. And he can still have a legit hand.

So, you can't just say "I don't want him to fold a one over hand" because you might compared to the alternative which seems to be laying reverse implied odds for 50% or so of your stack.

Run some ICM on exactly how much value you're 'giving up' by jamming pre, I don't think it is nearly as much as you think and will be compensated by the gains in him folding flip hands.

[baudib]

thanks for your insight, as always doc

[Sabr1988]

As played i would call to see the turn card hoping for undercard for our nines, if an overcard come i'd be folding, otherwise i wouldn't mind check/shove turn, if that undercard comes. But i normally don't like to play 99 vs a 3bet so as drmcboy is hinting, i would most likely want to get it in preflop, specially vs a tilted guy. If he 3-bet/fold, you still pick up 9bbs. If he got something like 66-77-88 then he will probably still call your 4-bet shove.

I dont see him 3-bet with air, as drcmboy hints, it isn't as if he showed 37, he had AQ and A10 with some outs, so id show him respect for sure.

[donkbee]

if an overcard come i'd be folding,

why?

[Sabr1988]

why?

Because i think he c-bet any 10J, K10, KJ, AJ, A10, AK and all the hands that allready have us dominated. It would be a desciplined fold by me, also i keep in head that i still got 32BBs left.

But i probably would have got it in preflop with 4-betting with the intention of calling off.

[donkbee]

I agree that an overcard on the turn could mean that he hit it because he does have overs in his range, but he also could have many other hands.

We should proceed with caution when an over comes because of course our opponent can always hit it, but to give up automatically and say that we're always going to fold is definitely a mistake.

[simpledude16]

Pretty ez call down all the way prolly, also think flat is pretty good given stacks and positions

[Sabr1988]

I agree that an overcard on the turn could mean that he hit it because he does have overs in his range, but he also could have many other hands.

We should proceed with caution when an over comes because of course our opponent can always hit it, but to give up automatically and say that we're always going to fold is definitely a mistake.

I agree with you that its a mistake to give it up automatically but as i wrote, it would be a disciplined laydown by me. If i had some more reads on the guy and knew he were very spews, i can definitely see value in just calling him down. But with these hands he has been showing down so far, i must admit that i do not feel comfortable with this play.

[Sabr1988]

Btw can you tell us what happened further with the hand? Did you call him down all the way or did you fold?