[5nl] AJ, hits something on river

[Fielmann]

MP3 is 19/13, quite passive, standard player
BTN is 22/16 over 68 hands. Post-flop he has been a calling station, rarely folding or betting.

Considering that I'm oop vs 2 opponents, at least one of whom doesn't like folding to c-bets, would this be a good spot not to c-bet?

Bet on river is intended to make money from 55-QQ. His reraise puts me in an awkward position though. I wonder if cc or immediate shove would have been better.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

CO ($5)
Button ($2.36)
SB ($5.45)
BB ($5)
UTG ($9.75)
UTG+1 ($6.37)
MP1 ($2.70)
Hero (MP2) ($7.73)
MP3 ($5)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, A
3 folds, Hero bets $0.14, MP3 calls $0.14, 1 fold, Button calls $0.14, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.49) 4, 4, K (3 players)
Hero bets $0.34, 1 fold, Button calls $0.34

Turn: ($1.17) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($1.17) A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, Button raises $1.88 (All-In), Hero?

[Cobra_1878]

C/f flop
C/f turn
C/f river

The board is double paired, FD's got there on river and you have 2P.

If button is a station and you know he is calling the flop, why are you betting with A high?

[griffey24]

Bet flop is fine.

I'd rather c/f or c/c river than bet. People can def have all Kx getting to the river like this.

[Savy]

I'm not sure I c/f AJ on a 44K rainbow board. I'm not massively against taking a stab at the flop, but it just depends on how much of his range the button is likely to call with, if he's going to call with almost all of his range I'm quite happy to bet because he'll be continuing with so much worse, however because there isn't that much on the board I still think he'd fold out a lot of his range.

At the same time though I don't really like c/f because there are plenty of hands we are ahead of which may take a stab at the flop, however if they really are that passive and they bet I'd probably fold.

[Cobra_1878]

Bet flop is fine.

I'd rather c/f or c/c river than bet. People can def have all Kx getting to the river like this.

Why do you lead out on this flop into 2 opponents, OOP, with A high and no immediate draws, with one of the villains being a calling station?

I agree this would normally be a good flop to cbet on, but not against someone who rarely folds to cbets. Surely there are betters spots to bet in?

[Savy]

Why do you lead out on this flop into 2 opponents, OOP, with A high and no immediate draws, with one of the villains being a calling station?

I agree this would normally be a good flop to cbet on, but not against someone who rarely folds to cbets. Surely there are betters spots to bet in?

If he is a calling station his calling range on the button is going to be quite wide, even more so as there is dead money in the pot. Then if he doesn't really ever fold out any of that range then I'm quite happy with A high, as it still dominates his range. He isn't going to have that much 4x in his range, PPs are all in his range but a relatively small part of it, same for Kx.

[Cobra_1878]

If he is a calling station his calling range on the button is going to be quite wide, even more so as there is dead money in the pot. Then if he doesn't really ever fold out any of that range then I'm quite happy with A high, as it still dominates his range. He isn't going to have that much 4x in his range, PPs are all in his range but a relatively small part of it, same for Kx.

Do you not think it would be better to wait until we actually have a hand and then just v-bet the shit out of him?

[Savy]

Do you not think it would be better to wait until we actually have a hand and then just v-bet the shit out of him?

We should miss out on value because there are going to be other spots where we get value?

May aswell practice playing for thin value now when it costs less than later on. If he's just starting I would suggest not getting involved in spots like this, but if he's a winning player at 5nl why not learn to add more value will be good long term.

[seven-deuce]

I'm with cobra on this one, i don't think betting AJ is good here.

With our read that BTN is a calling station, we should just value bet him to death. We're out of position facing two opponents who have a lot of Kx in their ranges and also some PP's they won't be folding to a c-bet most of the time, betting here is not for thin value.

0.34/(0.34+0.49) = 0.41 - This c-bet needs to work 41% of the time for it to be +EV taking reads into consideration i think this is probably a -EV spot to c-bet.

Also if called you have to play the rest of the hand OOP.

[supa]

Cbet flop. Cbet turn.

As played I'm not sure if c/c or betting is better. As described villain probably floats worse Ax otf that he'll call a bet with otr as well as other pps. Folding to his shove can't be terrible.

[rong]

I'm with Supa, I think, better to b/f the turn than the river.

[rong]

Actually I'm not sure that is what Supa is saying, but I'm saying better to bf the turn as a bluff than.bf the river for value.

[supa]

Yeah I'm saying b/f the turn. Kx is such a small portion of his range that even though he's a station our FE goes way up when the second K comes.

[kickass]

What are we getting value from on this river? Betting seems super retarded to me. And I'd snap fold now

[teddytalks]

I cant fold to his shove, you should have kept betting first 2 streets

[kickass]

what do we beat????

[Fielmann]

Surprised to see many are advocating double-barreling this turn. I would think that his range, when arriving on turn, is pretty much [pocket pairs, 4x, Kx] and so if he didn't fold on flop he probably isn't folding now.

Yeah I'm saying b/f the turn. Kx is such a small portion of his range that even though he's a station our FE goes way up when the second K comes.

Like I don't understand this at all. Second K makes it less likely that we're holding one so how can our FE go up?

[Fielmann]

What are we getting value from on this river?

villain probably floats worse Ax otf that he'll call a bet with otr as well as other pps.

Fight it out:P

[griffey24]

River value bet needs to be way smaller. It's even easier to bet smaller vs a passive cause he probably won't bluff raise us.

Bet 0.35-0.40 here.

As played, easy fold once he shoves.

[supa]

Surprised to see many are advocating double-barreling this turn. I would think that his range, when arriving on turn, is pretty much [pocket pairs, 4x, Kx] and so if he didn't fold on flop he probably isn't folding now.Like I don't understand this at all. Second K makes it less likely that we're holding one so how can our FE go up?

What makes you think villain understands that it's less likely we hold a K?

[supa]

What are we getting value from on this river? Betting seems super retarded to me. And I'd snap fold now

As played I think we get value from 55-QQ and maybe worse A's.

*edit* Just noticed op agrees.

[kickass]

I agree we can get some super spew calls if we size way smaller.
I'd prolly still Chk fold cos I hate feeling like I induced spaz and still having to fold

[spoonitnow]

I think that betting the flop is fine here. There are a lot of good cards for us on the turn against his likely flop calling range.

I think a good idea to get better at these types of spots would be to come into the FTR CHAT ROOM (no download needed) and post some similar hands.