99 BU

[mondayscool]

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (BTN): $30.28 (121.1 bb)
SB: $26.12 (104.5 bb)
BB: $22.72 (90.9 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $52.90 (211.6 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.10) 7 T 7 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.10) 3 (3 players)
BB bets $2.25, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.25

River: ($7.60) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $5.75, Hero ??


Villain = whale. 84/14, fairly aggro postflop. 50 hands. not much else to say really he's a whale.

I call pre because hitting a set with the whale in the hand is like printing money right. Checked flop because what can I value bet vs right? Called turn because whale can bet 3s and flush draws. River I'm sure is pretty close but interested to hear other's thoughts.

Villain's def got Tx, 7x, 77-JJ, 33, probably a lot of 3s. I can't call vs. this range but if we add him busted FD's and 44-66 with a couple random flip outs then we can call.

Noot really sure why I'm posting this hand but hopefully it can generate some discussion. Mostly interested to hear if others call river. Or even call turn.

[rpm]

i'd bet/fold 1.5 on the flop. worse pairs will call, the lack of betting before us means villains' higher pairs can likely be discounted, and i don't think we really mind folding out hands like AQ or whatever if they're not going to put a cent in the pot unimproved anyway.

as played i'd call turn and probably fold river - but it's probably a mistake to even call the turn if i plan to fold on a non-heart, non-A river card, so not sure about that one.

[mondayscool]

Good point rpm. Should I be betting this flop to prevent missed overs from realizing their large amount of equity? Is this good enough a reason to bet the flop in itself?

[Cobra_1878]

i'd bet/fold 1.5 on the flop. worse pairs will call, the lack of betting before us means villains' higher pairs can likely be discounted, and i don't think we really mind folding out hands like AQ or whatever if they're not going to put a cent in the pot unimproved anyway.

as played i'd call turn and probably fold river - but it's probably a mistake to even call the turn if i plan to fold on a non-heart, non-A river card, so not sure about that one.

+1 to betting the flop. There aren't many turn cards that you like.

[griffey24]

Bet flop your hand is too vulnerable 3way for sure.

[rpm]

i'm not sure on this one but i would guess it depends a lot on what's in their ranges. because there hasn't been a bet yet i'm inclined to think better pair hands (JJ+, Tx) are discounted. that leaves underpairs which will probably actually call a bet (we get value) and a whole lot of overcards (AJ+,KJ+,QJ is 96 combos) which have 25%ish equity against us (thus technically "correct" in calling a bet if we make it 1/2P or less) and make up a decent chunk of both players' ranges.

edit: they will obv also have TT/77/7x but these are pretty small parts of the range compared to 96 possible hand combinations which have two overcards, or 37 combos of {22-66,88-99}

in this case, because it's likely a decent chunk of their ranges (the overcards i mean), and these hands won't pay us off unless they happen to bink a pair to be beating us, coupled with the fact that some worse hands will call, i think makes betting correct here

edit: don't think i made one new point in this post vs my first one, ha. oh well.

[surviva316]

UTG is basically never checking the flop with a hand better than ours, and we have second pair against a terrible fish on a FoS board. I would definitely bet the flop. It also just happens to serve as a wondrous protection bet for our hand.

As played, call. I don't really think it's that close.