Gutshot Odds Micro LHE

[SlightlyFoxed]

I asked this question on another forum but couldn't get an answer. I'd really like to hear discussion about it, since I am thinking of always folding these:

I read it is 5-1 to make a gutshot straight draw in two tries, but it is 11-1 on the turn and the river. At .02/.04, where you get so many callers and raised preflop pots, it's easy to have over 11 bets in the pot after the flop to call to a gutshot straight draw. But the flop will often get only three players to see the turn card. If the needed card doesn't come on the turn and another player folds (also common) then there are only 8 bets in the pot. So often there is not enough to call again

Let's assume I am in middle position with two in front and two behind. Being new, I have almost no information on my opponents and they not much on me. Someone has raised-in in front of me, but I have noticed he always raises-in and haven't noticed any of his hands are all that great. So, we have 10 bets plus the blinds, 11.5 bets going to the flop.

The flop comes K79, a gutshot to 789TJ of which I am holding JTs. No flush draw. The raiser bets, the next folds, 12.5 bets in the pot, I call, one fold, one call, three to the turn with 14.5 small bets in the pot.

The turn is a 2, still no flush draw. The raiser bets and there are 8 big bets in the pot and it's my turn.

Without a flush draw, if I make my hand, I will win. I believe the last player will call. That will still only be 9 bets. But I believe the raiser will bet even if my straight comes on the river card. If I call the turn and make it, there will be exactly 11 big bets in the pot with my bet. IF the last person calls, 12. (plus the small blind, I suppose.)

I'm going to lose this a lot of times. I'm going to tie sometimes, I know, as it's happened to me already. In some similar, I'm going to lose to a better straight. In others, a flush draw will come on the turn and I can lose that way after making my hand.

I'm not seeing how it is profitable to me to ever call a gutshot draw on the flop, when that is all it is, without 16 bets in before the flop.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

It's enough to have 7x1 on flop to call profitably 1 small bet on flop on any stakes, in the nanos even 5X1 might be enough. And that's with no backdoors to go with it. Fold to flop cbet can't be higher than about 28% on flop, so if u start folding GSs on flop for one bet ur gonna bleed ur money.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

Without a flush draw, if I make my hand, I will win. I believe the last player will call. That will still only be 9 bets. But I believe the raiser will bet even if my straight comes on the river card. If I call the turn and make it, there will be exactly 11 big bets in the pot with my bet. IF the last person calls, 12. (plus the small blind, I suppose.)

I'm going to lose this a lot of times. I'm going to tie sometimes, I know, as it's happened to me already. In some similar, I'm going to lose to a better straight. In others, a flush draw will come on the turn and I can lose that way after making my hand.

I'm not seeing how it is profitable to me to ever call a gutshot draw on the flop, when that is all it is, without 16 bets in before the flop.

Nitty mentality, in FLH u can't be afraid of flushy boards spoiling ur outs, coz u don't pay much to see showdowns u literally can't be bluffed unlike NLHE. So rule of a thumb: if you have 2 backdoors or better, u never fold for 1 bet on flop (implied odds compensate the lack of odds), it's all about draws in FLH, if u can't play them, quit poker.

My hand with 7x1 on flop with GS:
PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 - Holdem - 8 players


Hero (BB): $9.22
UTG: $15.65
UTG+1: $6.26
MP: $13.15
MP+1: $10.59
CO: $20.00
BTN: $7.54
SB: $7.50

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25, CO posts DB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.60) Hero has 5 4

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, fold, MP+1 calls $0.25, CO checks, BTN calls $0.25, fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.35, 5 players) T 3 A
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP+1 bets $0.25, fold, BTN calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25

Turn: ($2.35, 4 players) 2
Hero bets $0.50, fold, MP+1 calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

River: ($3.85, 3 players) 6
Hero bets $0.50, MP+1 calls $0.50, fold

Hero shows 5 4 (Straight, Six High) (Pre 38%, Flop 20%, Turn 100%)
MP+1 mucks Q A (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 62%, Flop 80%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins $4.69

[ISillyDurrrAK]

Here's another one: GS+ BDFD on paired flop heads up versus fish:
PokerStars - $0.25/$0.50 - Holdem - 4 players
UTG: $4.59
Hero (BTN): $6.75
SB: $11.23
BB: $8.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has J 9

fold, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.10, 2 players) Q 8 8
BB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25 Vs a tight villain I'd have raised on semibluff for free card, but decided to peel and because I'm working on reducing fold to flop Cbet, It's far less than 16x1, and I'm 100% sure I played it right

Turn: ($1.60, 2 players) T
BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($4.60, 2 players) K
BB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.50

BB shows 8 3 (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 29%, Flop 83%, Turn 23%)
Hero shows J 9 (Straight, King High) (Pre 71%, Flop 17%, Turn 77%)
Hero wins $7.44

[SlightlyFoxed]

It's enough to have 7x1 on flop to call profitably 1 small bet on flop on any stakes, in the nanos even 5X1 might be enough. And that's with no backdoors to go with it. Fold to flop cbet can't be higher than about 28% on flop, so if u start folding GSs on flop for one bet ur gonna bleed ur money.

7-1 seems reasonable to me on the flop. If I don't get the card on the flop, how many do I need on the turn to call 1 bet?

(my fold to c-bet is 40% so that's pretty bad, I guess)

[MadMojoMonkey]

The flop comes K79, a gutshot to 789TJ of which I am holding JTs.

You have a double gutshot here, as an 8 or a Q will make your straight. PLUS either one is the nut straight, as always happens when JT plays both cards to a straight (no other pocket does that).

Aside from that, just read a few strategy articles on implied odds and pot odds and how you estimate your equity based on your outs. Make sure you understand those first.

Most of your confusion stems from a lack of solid understanding of the basic rule of gambling:

When:
the odds to win times the payout when you win
is more than
the odds to lose times the cost when you lose
then you make the bet.

[SlightlyFoxed]

You have a double gutshot here, as an 8 or a Q will make your straight. PLUS either one is the nut straight, as always happens when JT plays both cards to a straight (no other pocket does that).

I started playing poker in mid-November. I didn't even notice the other straight possibility.

Most of your confusion stems from a lack of solid understanding of the basic rule of gambling:

When:
the odds to win times the payout when you win
is more than
the odds to lose times the cost when you lose
then you make the bet.

I agree, but then I find I have a solid lack of understanding of pretty much everything right now but which hands beat which hands. But I will say my question came from thinking I would never get paid off enough for the times I lost.

You disagree? Do you agree that 7 bets on the flop is enough to be going on with for a 1 bet call?

[MadMojoMonkey]

If you have 8 outs, then you have ~16% to catch your draw, which is 5:1 against.

If the pot is at least 5 times the bet, then you call, because, YES, that's the gamble that will pay off when you hit it.

[sam1FTR]

I tend to call a lot more straight/flush draws in limit than in no limit.

With that being said, when the flop comes K79, you have a double gutshot with T9, as you can hit either the 8 or the Q. There is a ton in the pot, and you are definitely getting the right odds to call to chase one more card.

[jaxpaboo]

Call.. if you hit you will get tricky straight, so early guy will most likely still bet and you can raise. This kind of gives you a little better implied odds on the turn.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The flop comes K79, a gutshot to 789TJ of which I am holding JTs. No flush draw. The raiser bets, the next folds, 12.5 bets in the pot, I call, one fold, one call, three to the turn with 14.5 small bets in the pot.

The turn is a 2, still no flush draw. The raiser bets and there are 8 big bets in the pot and it's my turn.

OTF: You have 8 outs.
The odds of catching one of your outs is ( 8/47 = ) 17.0%, which is 4.88:1.
If the pot is exactly 4.88 times the bet, you have 0 EV to call, assuming no more money goes in when you catch your out.

Since the pot is more than this (pot is 12.5 bets), Hero is printing money all day by calling here.

EVEN IF Hero only had a gut-shot w/ 4 outs, that's still ~10:1 against to make the draw, and with 12.5:1 pot odds, it's still a +EV call.

OTT: The only difference is that now the pot odds are even higher, so a call is even more +EV.