4nl TT in CO facing river c/r

[WeldPhaser]

villain is 25/18/15(4/27) over 75, cbfl= 86%(6/7) cbT=50%(1/2)
he hasn't done anything really out of line yet, just getting a lot of folds w/ his cbets OTF, he folds to 3b=100%(3/3)

i had 3b him twice in like 10 min proximity to hand , so i decide to flat. stupid idea??

there's fd's in his range OTT , that hurt our equity for calling OTR for sure, Is stationing down all we can do here. we only need like 27% to call OTR.

I just have a hard time thinking he checks back real value... IDK

Revolution Gaming Network - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $3.37
MP: $3.40
Hero (CO): $4.00
BTN: $11.73
SB: $4.00
BB: $3.36

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has T T

fold, MP raises to $0.12, Hero calls $0.12, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) J 9 3
MP bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70, 2 players) 8
MP bets $0.44, Hero calls $0.44

River: ($1.58, 2 players) 3
MP checks, Hero bets $0.79, MP raises to $2.64 and is all-in,

[Pascal]

Why are you betting river?

[cleanup.that]

You do not have a lot of info regarding his 2 barrel frequency. THOUGH, I would imagine that his range on the turn has very decent equity vs our hand.

I would probably make a decision right here on the turn. Either folding or raising and calling a shove. Hell you can even shove here as long as you can have some monsters in your range when making this play.

I don't like calling because there are A LOT of river cards that your TT is not going to want to see, and we are basically just drawing to an obvious straight that wont get paid off anyway.

The river bet is spew imo.

[WeldPhaser]

Why are you betting river?

Well, idk pascal i suppose this is part of the reason i posted the hand.
can you ever get AJ,KJ,JT, to fold here? those could be a couple better that fold, but i can't see much of anything worse calling. Maybe 77.

spew i guess

[Pascal]

It's good to articulate your thoughts about why you took a certain line - if we ignore the river but you come out of this thread thinking it was a good bet it would be a waste of time.

If you've 3bet him twice recently I don't see any problem with 3bet/shove over his 4bet or play post flop if he flats.

Agree that turn is the big decision, although I'm not really sure what to do TBH. What do you think his range is for double barreling?

[d0zer]

hand is played fine until dat river

[supa]

He probably isn't betting 2/3 pot on the flop w/ a flush draw.

[d0zer]

He probably isn't betting 2/3 pot on the flop w/ a flush draw.

why not?

[supa]

why not?

cuz I said so

[d0zer]

cuz I said so

well I think yer wrong, drunkie. read villain's stats again, a FD is the tip of the iceburg and sizing isn't particularly crazy in either direction for air/fd.

I could be wrong, I am baked as fuck

[WeldPhaser]

It's good to articulate your thoughts about why you took a certain line - if we ignore the river but you come out of this thread thinking it was a good bet it would be a waste of time.

If you've 3bet him twice recently I don't see any problem with 3bet/shove over his 4bet or play post flop if he flats.

Agree that turn is the big decision, although I'm not really sure what to do TBH. What do you think his range is for double barreling?

On the note of walking away thinking it good to bet river, i wouldn't worry there. I really didn't expect him to check. so my plan for when he did wasn't the most thought out.

Db'ing Range: AJ, KJ,QJ,77 maybe AQ, AK.. is AQcc going to db, then check back.

i basically didn't want to raise the turn, and then have to make a decision on a club river. More info seems almost necessary .

[Pascal]

When you say "is AQcc going to db, then check back" do you mean then check river? He can't check back because he's OOP

The range you're giving him is too narrow - it doesn't include any sets, any overpairs, AT, QT, KQcc.

[supa]

well I think yer wrong, drunkie. read villain's stats again, a FD is the tip of the iceburg and sizing isn't particularly crazy in either direction for air/fd.

I could be wrong, I am baked as fuck

Ok stoney mcstonerson, he looks like a laggy reg who's more likely to 1/2 pot the flop imo. I'm not saying he can't do this with a fd, just saying it's less likely.

[Hoopy]

Pre, flop and turn look good.

Why are we betting the river? It can't be for value and trying to bluff him off Jx and overpairs won't work much. Check back and win against 9x/air.

Easy fold vs his c/r, expect his range to be JJ/99/88.

[daven]

check back river for nh

[WeldPhaser]

check back river for nh

Thanks daven, I can see how my river bet isn't really doing anything.

At 4nl i rarely check back river planning to c/r, and similarly don't get it done to me much. I still have 71bb's left behind after my river bet. Do you think villain really planned this to get more value, or just didn't have the balls to triple.

I hate overthinking these spots that are prob not so complicated at this level.

It just doesn't happen much unless it's a total obvious spew raise.