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PF:
Opponents range:
AQ+, AT+ KTs+, QJ, JTs, 22+
Our calling range:
22-JJ, AQ, KQ
Flat is just fine
Flop:
Opponent's CBet would get action from any pair exept 33, flush draws, Tx, maybe AQ could peel one. Villain would CBet this board with quite a wide range.
Raising would get value only from AT and flush draws. Rest of calling range would destroy us and flush draws could 3Bet us and force us fold. -> C/C is a good line.
Turn:
It's highly unlikely he has 4 in his hand and also we should not get too worried of the spade draw filling. He could be double barreling with K or A of spades in his hands. His turn CBet could make our weak pairs like 44-99 fold.
I would be calling here always.
River plan:
X of spades -> check/fold. I have made some small blocking bet's in these situations against certain players. I'm not sure if it's +EV in the end. I would not bluff.
Q-A -> Check/Fold. Villain would not bluff three barrels on this board.
Anything else -> check -> consider the odds.. We are also new player to him. We have called his bet PF, called his bet on flop and also called his bet on turn. Call, call, call.. We could seem to be a weak calling station in his eyes according the three streets we have played. Third barrel against unknown player who have acted like a calling station is not +EV for the villain. He would in most cases be value betting his full house, flush or QQ+ and AT. We would beat his AT, though.
We would value donk our flush and full house most likely. He has to put us on AT or JJ-QQ.
Mm, what about value donk/fold river.. don't know. We could have value from the AT and would also be able define the price we want to pay to see his hand.
Edit: messed up finals thoughts
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