Top Set vs. Flop 3Bet on Draw-Heavy Board

[DoubleJ]

Villain is VP 19/PFR 6/3B 0 over 16 hands. No other reads. Is this a fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($0.89)
Hero (MP) ($2.39)
CO ($2)
Button ($7.47)
SB ($0.78)
BB ($2.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) 10, K, J (2 players)
BB bets $0.12, Hero raises to $0.36, BB raises to $0.84, Hero ???

[eugmac]

AQ is not the only hand villain can have. TT, maybe even JJ, several draw possibilities, two-pair hands. Also don't forget that you have lots of outs against the nuts.

[baudib]

never fold this

[OngBonga]

Stack it happily.

[supa]

With no draws factored in this is a coin flip vs AQ, JJ, TT. All of which are in his range imo.

Thinking about it I wouldn't discount QQ or AA here.

[Zorkion]

hero ships it like its hot

[Hoopy]

Crunch some ranges in stove and you'll know what to do.

[rpm]

Is this a fold?

christ no. stick it in. can't be worse than neutral EV when we have at least 30% against the nuts. we might even get it in 3-way, which is even nicer.

[DoubleJ]

we might even get it in 3-way

why, sir! i hardly even know you!

(FNNNaaarrr)

[Jarhead]

Hero shoves.

He can call with a lot of worse hands.

[DoubleJ]

Crunch some ranges in stove and you'll know what to do.

Ok, so here's my homework if anyone feels like grading it:

19% is 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

he's likely calling with QQ-66,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ (calling ranges are what i struggle with the most; any feedback/pointers here are appreciated)

i'm 4:1 ahead of that range, and 7:2 ahead after the flop

of that range, he's 3Betting me w/ straights, sets or 2Pairs (JJ-TT,AQs,KJs-KTs,JTs,AQo,KJo-KTo), right? so i'm still ~7:4 ahead.

i've got the maths on my side, but the inner-noobie still can't help thinking i've missed something when i shove and he calls w/ LDO AQ

[gingerwizard]

I don't think his stats indicate him calling with KT and KJ is borderline. I don't think this will ruin the calculation to the extent that this is anything other than a shove though

[DoubleJ]

I don't think his stats indicate him calling with KT and KJ is borderline.

Thanks gingey - can you expand on this, though please? i'm trying to get to grips w/ Opp calling ranges and would appreciate some insight on your thought processes here

[OngBonga]

I think you can give him a calling range of TT JJ TJs KTs KJs Q9s AQ AsJs QsJs and very occasionally AA/QQ. We ejaculate all over this range. I'd say he has straights and sets more often than other combos based on his 3bet sizing on flop, but he definitely does this with lower sets, so it's not like he usually has AQ here, and he at least sometimes has weaker strong hands. When he has AQ or Q9s, we're only 2:1 dog. We have a strong draw against the top of his range, while we crush the rest. If he has the better hand on this flop, pray for the board to pair and prepare to reload, get on with playing good poker.

[gingerwizard]

This is kind of tricky because the stats you have are from only 16. I don't think you can get an accurate assessment of calling ranges from only 16 hands. What I get from stats like this is a general sense that the player knows what he's doing (he not playing loads of hands) and that he is willing to raise. Although the VP/pfr ratio is a little big (meaning he has not been too aggro yet), I'm unwilling to brand him as stationy or weak after only 16 hands.

Now, I take this "OK he's not a total idiot" based on his stats after 16 hands being reasonable and apply the rule "what hands might someone who is not terrible call an UTG+1 raise from the BB with?" To do that, I can only think of what hands I might do it with. (Note I'm only taking this approach based on his stats after only 16 hands, whilst not telling me much, tell me I'm not dealing with a maniac). I wouldn't call with KT or KJ. This isn't to say I would rule out those hands (villain is unknown after all), I just view them as less likely.

You could pretend that 19%VP was accurate (i.e. over many more hands) and decide what his range would be based on that. You need to adjust however, for position (his and yours) and the fact he is calling a raise rather than limping or completing, and that he will be OOP post flop. To do that you need to remove lots of the worst hands from the range etc.

[OngBonga]

I'm giving him suited broadway since he's defending the big blind. 16 hands is not enough to consider his stats anywhere near accurate, ginger is right that we should assume he at least isn't an idiot, but he can still defend with Q9s if he feels it, and thus KTs and KJs. I guess it depends on hero's image over the 16 hands with this villain.

[OngBonga]

I blatantly missed KQ in his range, though I think he flats that on flop, and since we have blockers villain rarely has this, so has almost negligable effect on our equity.

[gingerwizard]

Q9s? wtf?

His VP is 19%, the only way his calling from the BB would remotely tally with that were if every time he had put money in the pot it was to call a raise.

[OngBonga]

Against certain villains, I can sometimes defend bb with Q9s, I run at something like 16/12. Just saying we can't eliminate the possibility based on 16 hands.

[gingerwizard]

Sometimes I regret the terms "defend" and "steal" when it comes to the blinds. They inject far more emotion than intended

[OngBonga]

People raising your blind can sometimes inject more emotion than it should. Say this is the 3rd time in 5 orbits this guy has raised your blind... that's why I say sometimes I can defend Q9s against certain villains... there's often more to it than what can be stated in a single OP.

[gingerwizard]

Is it defending or recognising he's got a wide range and playing correctly against that range. In this hand, OP has only 16 hands with villain. He may suck, but on the balance of probability Q9s is not in his calling range

[rpm]

i've got the maths on my side, but the inner-noobie still can't help thinking i've missed something when i shove and he calls w/ LDO AQ

to loosely quote baudib from memory: "if you only ever get your money in good then you're not getting it in often enough"

[supa]

The thing is that you're still good here even against the nuts mathematically. Stove for AQo/AQs and then figure out the ev of a shove. I think it's pretty close.

[rpm]

The thing is that you're still good here even against the nuts mathematically. Stove for AQo/AQs and then figure out the ev of a shove. I think it's pretty close.

our equity vs AQ is 34%. thus we win 34% and lose 66%.
when we win we get the current pot + what villain has left in effective stacks (aka "amount win")
when we lose we lose the amount we shove (aka "amount lose")

EV = equity * amount win - (1-equity) * amount lose
EV = 0.34 * 2.86 - 0.66 * 1.39
EV = 0.9724 - 0.91724
EV = 0.055

right you are sir.

edit: for clarification, folding is always 0EV. the above (assuming i didn't fuck up) shows that shoving is +EV even if villain's range is only the nuts. therefore shoving > folding.

[baudib]

to loosely quote baudib from memory: "if you only ever get your money in good then you're not getting it in often enough"

This is me quoting Shaun Deeb, who is most certainly talking about MTTs.

I mean this case isn't even close, top set on super drawy board is an easy shove.

[rpm]

i had a feeling it was in the MTT forum, but it's a maxim which holds true in cash games. this hand is one of the spots whereby the optimal play is to shove even if we are getting it in with <50% equity (aka "bad") 100% of the time.

[baudib]

to loosely quote baudib from memory: "if you only ever get your money in good then you're not getting it in often enough"

This is me quoting Shaun Deeb, who is most certainly talking about MTTs.

I mean this case isn't even close, top set on super drawy board is an easy shove.

[BlackRain79]

This is a very easy all in for me.

[EasyPoker]

all the math stuff is complete BS here

it's such an obvious jam it's probably -EV to do anything other