i'll do this exercice , or at least try. 5% opens from EP would mean :88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo.
Sample is really small. Why did you not 3bet AK vs that range?
On the
flop i
don't feel his
range can'y be that strong calling the
flop kind here looks pretty
standard to me , he could have a lot of whiffed overcards , AJ KQ, AQ, , hands like 99
TT that can't stand much heat vs a
nit like me on the
turn.
Nit like you? Is he aware of this? It seems like its a pretty big assumption your making that he is paying attention and knows how to properly adjust to someone who is a nit. Many people, even higher stakes, tend to have one playstyle and stick to that no matter how their opponents are playing. Even if your assumption is right, try not to make it a habit to float OOP to try stealing the pot on a later street, especially against someone you dont have a lotta history with.
the
turn i
felt like i was bluffing but while reviewing the hand it's not batshit insane to think i might still be
ahead and i'
m actually valuebetting though at the time i didn't realise this and it was intended as a
bluff. I figured hands like
TT 99 might not like the
action on a double
paired board vs a defending BB and some A hi hands might get stubborn. Obviously , because i
felt i was bluffing i was hoping to get a
fold. When he calls the
turn his
range looks like
TT-
AA and maybe a whiffed overcards but i'
m not giving that to much weight. I must admit after he called the
turn i
felt like he was going to
call a bunch of rivers with those hands and basically giving up on my
bluff. At this point i
felt ' lost' in the hand. In my head i was planning to bet big
paint cards like anyJ
Q K A. but besides those cards , i was likely to give up. I like the 'idea' of betting those cards ont he
river because it would be a hard
call for some of his medium pairs
I don't like this play or reasoning at all. It is very hopeful for you to think that he would fold an overpair here. You can't credibily rep a 3 or an 8 here. It just looks really fos or some kind of pair that your trying to get value from. Again, we don't even know how much this guy is paying attention or how much he can hand read. Most likely he will look at his own two cards and make decisions on that rather than your line.
river i figured i am betting for value and hoping to see a
crying call from
TT-
KK