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Tough river situation

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  1. #1
    Moradis's Avatar
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    Default Tough river situation

    UTG
    110 hands. Seems solid and straight forward.
    VPIP 31%/20%. Doesn't seem to play position, more a 'cards' man from what I've seen. I put him on any pp or AQo+, possibly Axs as he seems to like those from what I've seen.

    CO
    I've got 50 hands. Maniac. VPIP 59%/21% AFq 82% AF 7 overall. 1st time I'd seen him reraise with lots of chances. I put him on a high pocket pair or AJ+ (premium for him!). I've seen him pfr with everything from 79s up and limp with anything but the raise makes me suspicious.

    I figure with the aggression, I could well be paid off if I hit my set and the odds looked good vs stacks

    $0.06 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

    SB: $6.03
    Hero (BB): $10.67
    UTG: $6.00
    MP: $6.00
    CO: $11.48
    BTN: $6.00

    SB posts SB $0.03, Hero posts BB $0.06

    Pre Flop: ($0.09) Hero has 9 9

    UTG raises to $0.21, fold, CO raises to $0.36, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.15

    Flop: ($1.11, 3 players) J 9 8
    Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55, UTG calls $0.55

    Exactly what I put him to do, the aggressive maniac plays to plan. I didn't want to reraise to scare off the 3rd to try to build a pot & get the stack(s) but mainly the maniac's. I'm thinking he's got AJ or QQ+. He might have JJ but I'm doubtful. He could have a straight as he can be wild, but I can pair the board for a boat. I've seen him bet top pair like a true nutter - happy to get all in when he can...

    Turn: ($2.76, 3 players) 8
    Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $1.38, Hero calls $1.38, fold

    Awesome, this makes my boat and I'm thinking this could pay well. I was planning a reraise on the river (he will bet) or call a shove.

    River: ($5.52, 2 players) J

    FFS... This makes any J a winner Jacks over 8s. I'm in a real pickle. I want to check it down.

    Hero checks, CO bets all in in $9.19,

    There goes my check option. What the heck ... I slow played the boat and think I got counterfeited on the river card. There's a very good chance he hit the river given his bet. An over pair just doesn't seem to fit the bet since any J or 8 (and I'm calling with something) makes the FH. Maybe pocket 8s or Js but I discount those since he didn't pot bet to get me committed - I figure he doesn't think like that & the bet represents the strong hand, AJ or KJ.

    Any thoughts? What do I do??
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  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    shove turn... CO is calling any Jx,8x,straights sometimes even OESD/FD .
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  3. #3
    bikes's Avatar
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    c/r flop to like $1.4
    as played c/r turn to like $3.5
    as played fold

    ?wut
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    c/r flop to like $1.4
    as played c/r turn to like $3.5
    as played fold
    Agree. On a board like this against 2 opponents we want to force draws out and make them call with worse
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Moradis View Post
    UTG
    CO
    I've got 50 hands. Maniac. VPIP 59%/21% AFq 82% AF 7 overall. 1st time I'd seen him reraise with lots of chances. I put him on a high pocket pair or AJ+ (premium for him!). I've seen him pfr with everything from 79s up and limp with anything but the raise makes me suspicious.
    I'm not checking this flop ever...nor am i folding the river. How often does he 3bet PF? Not much? Then his PF 3bet looks too much like a strong pp. A lot? Then Jx is just as likely as 8x.
    I'm not good enough to lay this down.
  6. #6
    supa's Avatar
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    I'm with bikes on everything except folding the river.
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  7. #7
    Moradis's Avatar
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    Thanks for the thoughts - so the concensus is I should have pushed them much harder to get them in on either the flop or river (although the full house beat most draws). The reason I was reluctant to push was I've c/raised the maniac once on the turn & he snap folded where I've seen him tripple barrel uncontested with air. That said, 50 hands isn't much to go by & one instance doesn't make a pattern, just a dot.

    Had I got him all in and he happened to have 88 or a J so be it.

    What I actually did was layit down (nearly crying...)

    Thanks all.
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  8. #8
    rpm's Avatar
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    maaaaaaaaaaate
    C/R flop. so many turn cards that either make your hand second best, or kill your action. as played definitely C/R turn.

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