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Tough river situation
UTG
110 hands. Seems solid and straight forward.
VPIP 31%/20%. Doesn't seem to play position, more a 'cards' man from what I've seen. I put him on any pp or AQo+, possibly Axs as he seems to like those from what I've seen.
CO
I've got 50 hands. Maniac. VPIP 59%/21% AFq 82% AF 7 overall. 1st time I'd seen him reraise with lots of chances. I put him on a high pocket pair or AJ+ (premium for him!). I've seen him pfr with everything from 79s up and limp with anything but the raise makes me suspicious.
I figure with the aggression, I could well be paid off if I hit my set and the odds looked good vs stacks
$0.06 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
SB: $6.03
Hero (BB): $10.67
UTG: $6.00
MP: $6.00
CO: $11.48
BTN: $6.00
SB posts SB $0.03, Hero posts BB $0.06
Pre Flop: ($0.09) Hero has 9 9
UTG raises to $0.21, fold, CO raises to $0.36, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.15
Flop: ($1.11, 3 players) J 9 8
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55, UTG calls $0.55
Exactly what I put him to do, the aggressive maniac plays to plan. I didn't want to reraise to scare off the 3rd to try to build a pot & get the stack(s) but mainly the maniac's. I'm thinking he's got AJ or QQ+. He might have JJ but I'm doubtful. He could have a straight as he can be wild, but I can pair the board for a boat. I've seen him bet top pair like a true nutter - happy to get all in when he can...
Turn: ($2.76, 3 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets $1.38, Hero calls $1.38, fold
Awesome, this makes my boat and I'm thinking this could pay well. I was planning a reraise on the river (he will bet) or call a shove.
River: ($5.52, 2 players) J
FFS... This makes any J a winner Jacks over 8s. I'm in a real pickle. I want to check it down.
Hero checks, CO bets all in in $9.19,
There goes my check option. What the heck ... I slow played the boat and think I got counterfeited on the river card. There's a very good chance he hit the river given his bet. An over pair just doesn't seem to fit the bet since any J or 8 (and I'm calling with something) makes the FH. Maybe pocket 8s or Js but I discount those since he didn't pot bet to get me committed - I figure he doesn't think like that & the bet represents the strong hand, AJ or KJ.
Any thoughts? What do I do??
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