QQ vs flush board

[Nekrogovner]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($2)
Button ($3.25)
Hero (SB) ($4.96)
BB ($5.22)
UTG ($2)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
2 folds, Button bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.24, 1 fold, Button calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.50) 10, K, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.32, Button raises to $0.64, Hero calls $0.32

Turn: ($1.78) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($1.78) 7 (2 players)
Hero ?


Villain is 13/8 over 39 hands. Seen him once win with something decent on showdown.

On flop i put him on AK, QJ, sets, and flush draws. I doubt he would flat AA and KK vs 3bet, and I don't think he will be doing many tricky stuff in this spot, like maybe protecting something like 99, JJ or AT.

Turn completes both straight and flush draws, so I'm pretty much giving up here, but he checks here? At this point I think he is probably fearing that I have a completed a straight or a flush draw. I suppose I could reduce his range now to sets and AK without A of spades (he would def bet that one).

River comes another spade, and looks like a great bluff spot for me. Should I bet/fold or just give it up? What would be a good bet size to push him off his AK or set?

[Zorkion]

"On flop i put him on AK, QJ, sets, "

in my experince, opp will call a normal bet on the river here with this range 8/10 times.

you floated his raise on the flop, which could possibly have seemed like a fd, but your turn check kinda dispensed with that possibility.

i would say if anything, fold to the flop raise, since youre oop on a super tight opp (13/8 is tight in fr, let alone 5max), and later streets are almost never going to help you

as played, c/f imho

[rpm]

fold flop imo

[tiltingdonkey]

villain won't call with worse. c/f imo.

[tiltingdonkey]

fold flop imo

yeah agree with this.

[lolpwnt]

fold flop, check fold river ldo

[oskar]

Make your oop 3-bets bigger.
Fold flop without reads. River bluff is mandatory. You could bet really small tho.

for those who said c/f river: give villain a range and then try to justify not bluffing again.

[tiltingdonkey]

IMO stakes is a big factor here. His continuing range is mostly TT/JJ, AK+, probably AQ. Will he fold AK? I highly doubt.

[oskar]

That's actually a good point
But since he's 13/8 he probably will.

[tiltingdonkey]

Thinking about it yeah, a 13/8 may fold. But then again this is 2NL and even a 13/8 might not be savvy enough to fold AK in this spot.

Guys, what percentage do you think this guy is folding AK to make a bluff profitable?

But then again, given his stats are our only read, I'd rather just c/f this down.

[bikes]

this hand is played fine, obv not folding to a flop minraise, though if he bet most turns id fold,

hand plays itself past the flop

[rpm]

i personally can't understand calling the flop raise. i know it's only a min-raise and all but even if he does have "bluffs" like flush draws and QJ and stuff, we're not really in very good shape. seems we're just setting ourselves up to C/F a heap on later streets. and we're not getting near a good enough price to call hoping to bink a Q.

Board: Ts Ks 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.927% 28.61% 00.32% 9347 103.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 71.073% 70.76% 00.32% 23116 103.50 { TT, 55, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, KTs, QJs, Qs9s, Js9s, AKo, QJo }

even if he flats AK

oard: Ts Ks 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.122% 39.65% 00.48% 8635 103.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 59.878% 59.40% 00.48% 12938 103.50 { TT, 55, AsQs, AsJs, As9s, KTs, QJs, Qs9s, Js9s, QJo }

[Nekrogovner]

The reason I called is, despite his image, I have actually put some bluffs/semibluffs in his range (Tx, JJ, 99-66, draws). A bit reckless on my side, but I have very limited 6max experience, and from what I saw, huge number of villains very often like to spew a few streets with mediocre holdings, or raise flop with nothing, and then give up all streets later.