ajo on gutshot vs unknown

[Zorkion]

Cake Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (9 handed) - Cake-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($3.69)
Button ($1.52)
SB ($1.58)
BB ($3.72)
UTG ($1.70)
UTG+1 ($4.68)
MP1 ($2.16)
Hero (MP2) ($6.07)
MP3 ($4.58)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, A
1 fold, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12, 3 folds, SB calls $0.10, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.40) 5, 2, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.31, Hero calls $0.31, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.02) 5 (2 players)
MP1 raises to $1.73 (All-In), Hero ???

only read on opp is he opens k8s from mid pos.

thoughts?

[Shotglass]

Just because he'll open as low as K8s from MP doesn't necessarily mean he is now. What kind of stats do you have on the guy? I know cake doesn't allow HUDs but has he been pretty active or not?

From MP2 I'm not sure that I'd be calling pre with AJo. If it were suited I'd take a flop, but not offsuit.

[Zorkion]

yeah, its hard to say without stats. he hasnt been super donk active, but hes been in more pots than seemed appropriate

[philly and the phanatics]

shotglass even if you know he's opening as wide as k8s there, you still arent calling with AJo?!?! (assuming the rest of the table is somewhat inline)

but this is a fold in my opinon on the turn

[Shotglass]

philly, that really depends on how active he's been.

Since the op added that he's been in more pots than has seemed appropriate then, yes I'd call pre, float the flop and fold to the turn overbet shove.

If he'd been playing very few to no pots then prolly not. We've got the other shortstackers in the btn and sb to think about. A shove squeeze from one of them would be very difficult to continue against.

If he'd bet 1/3 to 2/3 pot or checked on the turn then I'd prolly try to take it from him.

[philly and the phanatics]

this is 4nl the likelihood of the short stackers being just plain bad players, rather than good aware short stackers is drastically in our favor

[Shotglass]

yeah, good point...

[Razvan729]

i am always folding turn, we need 38% equity to be a 0EV call and more to +EV and we dont. even if he shoves any PP. 22-AA, Axcc,Kxcc, A5 and we are just 25%. i will sometimes even fold flop since his bet is pretty big

[Imthenewfish]

fold flop if your only read is he's opening wide pre

[jyms]

You don't have a GS on the flop, you have a GS plus overs. That said, calling pre is tough becasue your giving lots of guys behind pretty good reason to call and beat your TP when you hit, making large pots with TP 3 way is surely going to suck on a drawy flop. Raise or fold, and fold this flop, your not folding better hands and your calling is only giving drawing hands good chances to hit draws. A6, AK, AQ, Axs and PP's are all going to mess you up on this river if your not careful.

Another thing to think about with AJ is how many Ax hands your behind on the river of an A high flop. Your behind AK, AQ, and up to 4 Ax two pair hands alone. Example: A468Tr board has A4, A6, A8, AT and AQ+ ahead of AJ.

[Miffed22001]

Fold pre

[eugmac]

i felt like a nit when my instinct was to say "fold every street" but now i feel ok about coming out and saying it. Fold every street.

[scott_owen]

opening K8 from mp doesnt mean shoving all in K high on the turn. This is an aggression factor call, not a vip/pfr one, and you'll do a lot better catching this guy out with top pair than A high with a draw.

If he really is bluffing here and cant beat an ace then its probably going to happen again sooner or later, show some patience/discipline.

[fulksy]

Fold pre

really? explain please.

with OP's read i'm not folding here (unless we have other table dynamics coming into play) maybe i can fix a leak

[whisper132]

Generally when he leads out on the flop like that he has a big hand. Honestly when he click bets for 2/3pot it looks like a standard cbet but on these types of flops even with 2 overs its usually not a profitable call. I would put him on maybe a high pocket pair and when he shoves turn he is trying to protect his hand from a draw. When playing short stackers like this its pretty obvious hes a fish and is shoving for value. Without reads I would call flop and fold turn when it bricks. If I do have reads I make a decision from there. 3betting light preflop would probably save you money. Because if he calls we know his range is pretty solid and when he donks on the flop we can reasonably assume he has an overpair or something.

[Miffed22001]

really? explain please.

with OP's read i'm not folding here (unless we have other table dynamics coming into play) maybe i can fix a leak

We have reads from one hand - ok it's some solid info but nothing that gives us something definite to work on eg we have no Vpip/pfr to work on

The decision to fold pre is based upon what the likely scenarios are post flop let's look at some

Suppose we flop top pair and villain fires two barrels - do we really like our hand?

If the hand is sooted then at least when it flops equity we can have an overcard too so calling pre then is debatable but ok vs the right villains - probably here

If we flop j high and again face two barrels again do we like our hand?

If you look at the scenarios we like they are fewer than those we don't like hence fold pre - we also loose a lot more big pots and win smaller ones. I'd be much happier with 65s here

[philly and the phanatics]

you would rather 65s against someone with close to 50 bbs?....at 4nl vs a 50 bber that i have seen opening k8s i am more than happy calling at least 2 streets on any jxx or axx board

[Angryafrican]

I'd fold pre in all honesty.

I find AJos does much better with both position and initiative, calling a raise here with plenty of people to act behind (so you not guaranteed position) feels like you burning money in the long term.

Also jyms point about Ax hands beating AJos by the river is super sexy, I never quite thought about it like that.

edit: if we were on the button, I think this would change the dynamic significantly, considering villain is fishy, but I'd need a read the blinds weren't going to mess with me and squeeze. The whole situation just seems really marginal, which we can easily avoid with loose and volatile players at 4NL.

edit2: I'm becoming depressingly nitty at the micros, except on the button, it works though.

[philly and the phanatics]

Board: Ac 4h 6s Ts 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 46.51% 03.49% 40 3.00 { AhJc }
Hand 1: 50.000% 46.51% 03.49% 40 3.00 { A2s+, A2o+
on the board that jyms mentioned (A468T) ....Obviously if the board is liek AQK56 then our equity is going to be greater than 50%

[jyms]

My point was just to show that when money is going in on 3 streets vs AJ on an A high flop, you don't have the 3rd nuts on the river if he stacks off with TP no kicker like some peoples notes would say.

It's also why you want to play HU, and need to isolate or fold. AJo sucks multi way.

[Miffed22001]

you would rather 65s against someone with close to 50 bbs?....at 4nl vs a 50 bber that i have seen opening k8s i am more than happy calling at least 2 streets on any jxx or axx board

Missed we were 50bbs effective - but you catch my drift on preflop hand range

[rpm]

does anyone think we are better off raising flop than flatting? or is the consensus that we have enough actual SD to value to just float flop with what we assume is going to be the best hand a decent %?

[Miffed22001]

does anyone think we are better off raising flop than flatting? or is the consensus that we have enough actual SD to value to just float flop with what we assume is going to be the best hand a decent %?

I don't necessarily believe we need to float at these stakes to have a good winrate having said that we need to look at 2 options also
Can we represent something on the turn not just float and bet without looking like we have something
If we call the flop do we face a second barrel a lot

I'd say on this flop we will see a number of second barrels fired so not a great spot to float. If it was more likely our gutter was a winning hand outright if we hit and not a split often then calling to hit the gutter or rep a flush when a spade hits is a better play giving us close to 13 outs to try and rep on the turn