Flush draw + pair vs EP cbet & shove - do I call? ($4NL FR)

[rowhousepd]

I call an EP raise from the fairly tight villain (14/10/1.9). The only read I have is that he has cbet the flop heads-up w/ when he misses. But he cbets strong too. I flop a high flush draw w/ a pair and raise his half pot bet into me. He then shoves. Hmmm...

Ok, so I probably shouldn't have called his EP raise preflop w/ KQs, but as played I flop a nice draw w/ middle pair. He could have me beat badly w/ a set, or possibly beat less badly w/ AK, AQ, KQ -- all of which he continues with here. Calling his first cbet & chasing the draw seems fishy. So I raise. Was this spewy? And as played, do I want to get my money in there after his shove?

Merge Network $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
Hand History Converter

MP: $4.29
Hero (CO): $4.00
BTN: $6.46
SB: $3.90
BB: $8.04
UTG: $2.54
UTG+1: $6.14

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is CO with J Q
UTG raises to $0.16, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.16, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.38) 5 Q K (2 players)
UTG bets $0.19, Hero raises to $0.95, UTG raises to $2.38 all in
Hero....

[philly and the phanatics]

fold pre due to stack sizes imo...

raising flop is fine, although having the queen makes it weird because not much better is folding (maybe AQ?!) and not much worse is calling (doubt hes opening 87dd or T9dd) but our equity is going to get halved on the turn if we miss so its best to play combo draws like this fast.

as played you need 27% equity to call vs KQ/KK/QQ/55 you have 33% equity...so call

if he is doing this with AA/AK this is obviously even more profitable of a call.

[Miffed22001]

Fold preflop - hopefully you know why

The flop smacks your opponents range so I would not raise here I'd call flop fold turn unimproved but raising doesn't look optimal

[bikes]

this hand is perfectly fine now call it off

[Shotglass]

call.
Don't see a problem with pre.
I doubt someone playing 14/10 is open raising 55 from UTG

[FourLetterWord]

You should be thinking one move ahead. What are you going to do if he is going to shove over your raise etc. Now if you are going to raise his flop bet you should not be thinking about folding.

[rowhousepd]

as played you need 27% equity to call vs KQ/KK/QQ/55 you have 33% equity...so call

Let me know if I'm way off on my calculations here: His preflop range is AA-77 (maybe down to 55), ATs+, KQs+, AJo+, which is ~8%. With his bet/reraise on the flop that range goes down to QQ+, possibly 55, AK, AQ, KQ. Plugging that into PStove, I'm getting 42% equity for me. Am I doing this wrong?

[Carroters]

You know what pisses me off about threads in the BC....

This: Before a well known good player posts his opinion there will be 4 to 5 guys going "fold pre fold pre" or some advice for whatever the situation is. Then as soon as Bikes or M2M or whoever comes along and says "pre's fine" another 5 or 6 of them come in with "preflop is good" "pre is totally fine vs this guy." "WTF @ people who wanted to fold pre"

Like WTF......does this large demographic of all the guys who want to fold pre all suddenly disappear just from the words "fold pre" uttered by a decent player? This in no way explains why you should fold pre at all. So I find it hard to believe that everyone who posts their pigeon trying to gain 1% of ego improvement after this understands why while all those who posted before did not.

Like seriously guys....if you want to get better at poker, stop chiming in with agreement every time a well known stronger player posts a 3 word answer without actually discussing it.

1. You are learning nothing this way if you still don't understand.
2. You prolly don't understand.
3. Noone gives a shit if you appear 0.0001% smarter.
4. You suck at poker and therefore should have a tiny ego so stop neglecting your own learning at its pathetic expense.

Seriously If I see one more thread go this way I'm going to hunt down and bitch slap every one of you.

Ohh btw, I'm not accusing shotglass of this in this specific thread. It just reminded me of this bullshit lame trend that you see in every thread. His post may or may not be an utterance of what I'll dub FESATEOL - Fish Ego Strokage At The Expense Of Learning.

Stop doing this you idiots, if you ever want to get better at poker.

[philly and the phanatics]

uh last thread i agreed that pre was fine because we were 100bb deep vs a strong range, now even though we are against a strong range, i do not think we have deep enough stacks to play...

miffed also said pre was fine in the other hand and said pre was bad in this one....

[Shotglass]

Ohh btw, I'm not accusing shotglass of this in this specific thread. It just reminded me of this bullshit lame trend that you see in every thread. His post may or may not be an utterance of what I'll dub FESATEOL - Fish Ego Strokage At The Expense Of Learning.

No offence taken.
I normally try to write more than just those three little sentences so that if I'm thinking incorrectly someone else can set me straight but I was lazy today.

[Carroters]

uh last thread i agreed that pre was fine because we were 100bb deep vs a strong range, now even though we are against a strong range, i do not think we have deep enough stacks to play...

miffed also said pre was fine in the other hand and said pre was bad in this one....

I'm not referring to any other one hand nor am I accusing anyone specifically of this. It's a trend that has existed for ages in the BC and beginning players damage their ability to learn through it and it gets on my nerves. Seriously look through like 20 threads and you'll see it time and time again.

[Carroters]

No offence taken.
I normally try to write more than just those three little sentences so that if I'm thinking incorrectly someone else can set me straight but I was lazy today.

Yeah I wasn't implying you were doing this. More post good player's response querying from weaker players is in order and less piling onto the advice without full understanding.

[rowhousepd]

Fwiw, I notice this too, and since I figured there are plenty of people probably suffer from FESATEOL, I honestly tend to sorta mentally skip over the replies that have zero explanation & are like 2 words long -- that is, unless from one of the regular contributors to FTR. As a novice, I need all the explanation I can get. Thanks Carrot.

[Razvan729]

i agree w/ philly on this, also w/ 100bb deep we have to fold flop AI 3bet cause equity and pot odds.

i would also like just a call on flop since there is almost no combo better folding and since he is shorstacked and tight we will most times stack him off when we hit a turn diamond and he is w/ set, 2 pair, TPTK+FD, TPTK

[Carroters]

Please post this range that we have to fold flop vs since flop is never a fold, even 100bb deep.

[scott_owen]

I'm sure I'm guilty of what carrots is talking about..

really i think that we should all be posting our responses before ever reading anyone elses, and if you want to change anything after reading that should be either in a new post, referencing what changed your mind, or placed in your original post and noted as an edit.

responses should contain reasonably detailed thoughts too, or atleast point others in the direction of your thoughts.

I would probably fold this pre, but I don't think that is the necessarily the best or only acceptable choice. So my answer is as follows.

Preflop -

when making this desicion be sure to consider the opponents stack size, his tendancies regarding folding or paying off lighly post flop, as well as how likely it is that those acting behind you (button and blinds) will stay in to see the flop.

I fold because at 4NL I probably dont spend a lot of time pushing thin edges. I wait to get involved with larger stacked fish, not smaller stacked nits. This is likely not optimal though so calling in position here isnt bad, its just not what i'd do.

post flop as played I'll call the shove, but I like miffs reasoning for flatting the initial bet too, within that however I have to consider whether this player will pay me his entire stack when i make a flush, because if he won't then raising is much better. In the even that I flat the smallish flop bet and hit a flush on the turn then i could quite easily face a villain check/fold. With that in mind villains cbet frequency likely comes into play, and I feel like villain can make this cbet with 66-JJ, and that he will find it easy to check/fold them on a diamond turn which obviously dramatically reduces my implied odds.

With those post flop considerations in mind, I think the hero's raise size is questionable. Vs this player, if he's made the flop bet with 66-JJ then he's folding to pretty much any raise and a lot of the benefit of raising this type of hand comes out of the potential fold equity, and we can see villain fold that range with a raise to 60-70c. the rest of his range is going to be ahead of us by a long way. This will however effect how easy it is for us to call a shove so I'm unsure of this. Ofcourse we are ahead of that range of hands anyway so this goes against the fundamental idea of betting and is perhaps insane.. But I certainly dont feel like we can play for stacks with a middle pair here on the assupmtion that villain has a low-mid pp when we flat the flop so i'm happy to take this down here.

Obviously our equity is much greater with a smaller call that puts us all in on the flop so that is a fairly decent argument for the larger raise.

All this brings me to the conclusion that post flop options are as follows,

flat flop, fold turn to any bet that doesnt give odds for flush draw
flat flop, bet/fold pretty much any card when villain checks turn
raise flop to 60c, fold to shove (maybe need to do proper pot odds calc here)
raise flop to 60c, fold to turn shove, likely check behind if possible as fold equity is limited vs short stack
raise flop to 90c, call shove, if villain flats re-eval turn

..finally, apologies if i've left some gaping holes in my logic here as i'm sick at the moment.. and I have no idea which of these options is best..

[Razvan729]

Please post this range that we have to fold flop vs since flop is never a fold, even 100bb deep.

w/ 100bb deep we need 38% equity. vs KK/QQ/55/KQs we have 32%, so i think it's a fold.
if we add AA then we have 38% so it's 0EV, we need him to shove some AK combos to be a +EV call on flop.

even so, w/ no FE it's ok to raise flop since he is not folding better and he flats AA,AK and shoves just 2pair+?

[rpm]

i'm basically never folding a pair+FD 100bb deep (and the shorter the effective stacks the more inclined we want to be to put the money in with combo draws like this) on a flop unless i somehow know my opponent's range is sets only. this guy certainly has AK and AA in his range some of the time (meaning we have at least 40% equity), so call now.

edit: this is only referring to the decision of acting to the all-in. not necessarily advocating the preflop play or flop raise.

[Miffed22001]

Why are we calling UTG raises with marginal hands?

So basically let's call a raise with A hand that is marginally profitable in position (unlikely to be to a raise and certainly not an UTG raise!) and proceed to spew into a strong range where we don't have great equity (it could be worse I guess) plus UTG has a shallow stack

It's 4nl and our opponent sucks why are we just not making strong hands and getting paid?

I look at this hand and without wanting to sound mean or anything can understand why it's from 4nl - because we aren't playing the correct hands in the corset positions or for the correct reasons etc

Perhaps well i know I am a nit but you don't get out of 4nl like this IMO which is why I don't agree with a number of opinions j this thread IMO we shouldn't even be debating post flop

Ps rep for carroters for awesome post

[Carroters]

w/ 100bb deep we need 38% equity. vs KK/QQ/55/KQs we have 32%, so i think it's a fold.
if we add AA then we have 38% so it's 0EV, we need him to shove some AK combos to be a +EV call on flop.

even so, w/ no FE it's ok to raise flop since he is not folding better and he flats AA,AK and shoves just 2pair+?

This range is too tight. If it's even a tiny bit wider it's a call so to assume he can never have AA or AK here is going to be a mistake.

I'm happier just calling the flop though here rather than raising to get it in simply because there aren't many dominated draws or hands we have good equity vs in villain's range and we fold out no better hands, while likely still getting paid when we make our flush, trips etc. If this was BU vs CO vs some aggro reg we'd have shitloads of equity and should be willing to get this in.

Raise/folding this flop would be the worst shit ever, this deep or 100bb deep.