Bet sizing question

[PKKFW]

UTG+1 is 20/18 cbet 75%, fold to cbet raise% is 100%(1) over 59 hands
SB is 36/0 over 25 hands, c/f's flop alot and seems like pretty much a fit or fold type player.

My question is what size raise should I be making in this kind of situation?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($18.31)
Button ($4)
SB ($6.32)
BB ($9.69)
UTG ($9.85)
MP1 ($15.05)
Hero (MP2) ($9.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 2, 2
1 fold, MP1 bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

I call preflop actually expecting the CO and or SB to call as they have done that alot thereby making it a multiway pot but am happy to set mine and get out if I don't hit against raiser.

Flop: ($1.30) 7, 2, Q (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.70, Hero raises to $2.60, 2 folds

Total pot: $2.70 | Rake: $0.13

I'm not too worried about SB calling and giving odds to the original raiser after I raise.

Obviously I want raise here both for value because I have the set and to charge flush draws.

Now I think my math was wrong here for the FD odds.

equity = (bet to call)/(Pot + bet to call) = 1.90/(4.60 + 1.90) = 29.2%

So it would be a call if someone had a FD right?

So what would be an optimal bet size?

[rpm]

a flush draw will improve to a better hand than yours roughly 19% of the time.

the bettor will be calling $1.9 and the pot will be $4.6. meaning he is getting roughly 2.5:1 (or 29%), and his hand is 4:1 against hitting. meaning he needs to extract roughly 1.5 x $1.70 on the turn on average in order to break even (and thus cannot profitably call based on pot odds alone)

the checker will be calling $2.6 and the pot will again be $4.6. so he gets a worse price, something like 1.8:1 (requiring ~36% as a guess) and so obviously can't profitably call with a flush draw based on pot odds alone.

i think your raise size is fine. as there is a passive fish in the pot, you could probably bump it up to $2.8 or $3 and see a slight increase in EV (ie their calling ranges don't change). but emeh

edit: too tired. fucked up the maths. will fix.

[PKKFW]

Ok thanks.

I was thinking a flush draw would see it as 9 outs so about 36% equity with a call of 29% to make. But that is counting the turn and river of course!

Back to the math classroom I think!

[Razvan729]

he has aprox 36% equity to hit his flush by river.that's the equity for flop AI, but like rpm said, his chances to hit it on turn are about 19%. he has implied odds to call if flush hit on turn and you bet again turn or if you check turn but you bet river or call a river bet on a 3flush board with your set.

[Zorkion]

ok, heres my 2 cents -

mp looks like a lag who possibly cbets a little too often

so for a starting range from utg+1, im gonna say 77+, aj+, kq, for a total of 160 possible hands, with no blockers

flop comes and shows two blockers, reducing the number of hands he can have to 140, out of which, I assume he would cbet every one of them.

at this point, of the hands he can have, 12 has us killed (77, qq), 126 are far behind us, and 2 have the flush draw (ajs, aks. no aq/kq since the qs is dead)

so with that in mind, Im probably not even going to worry about the chance that he managed a flush draw, considering that represents less than 2% of the total hands he can have

moving on, lets see what happens per hand

12/140 hands (77, qq) have us losing our stack when he eventually gets all of his money in, maybe he shoves back at our raise, maybe he gets it in later, but 8.57% of the time, we end up losing $9.45 since he has us covered

36/140 hands (aq, kk, aa) we win his stack when he plays aggressively back at us (i know this is a bit of an estimate, but im too lazy to do % to stack off) 25.7% of the time, we win $20.20

12/140 hands (kq) he continues with when we raise, but in general we dont make as much money, say $6.50 total 8.57% of the time (also iffy since i dont know how agg people in .05/.1 are in this sort of situation, but were just assuming he folds to a turn bet)

78/140 hands (88-jj, ak, aj not sooted) we win right here with our reraise, earning us $2 55.7% of the time


so, our total ev in this situation is

.0857 * -9.45 + .257 * 20.2 + .0857 * 6.5 + .557 * 2

= + $6.05

even if he wins our stack every time he has a flush draw (let alone hitting it), that brings our ev down to merely $5.92


all that said, Id probably bet a bit more, hoping to get kq to call a bit more money, but in general, i think the raise sizing is ok.



this post was brought to you with inspiration from the spoony exercises. let me know if my maths/thought processes are off