AA 3bet spot flop reraise

[Razvan729]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($7.68)
MP1 ($4.93)
MP2 ($6.85)
CO ($5.15)
Hero (Button) ($5.07)
SB ($5.08)
BB ($4.23)
UTG ($10.46)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
UTG bets $0.12, 3 folds, CO calls $0.12, Hero raises to $0.48, 3 folds, CO calls $0.36

Flop: ($1.15) , , (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.95, CO raises to $2.10, hero???

villain is complete unknown, seen him open raise 2 times in EP but he wasnt called and did nothing in rest, for about 10 hands that he has been at the table.

i have no ideea what he could play like this preflop and then postflop... i really dont know what range to give him here.... and really dont know how to react on his c/r... looks like a set, but if he is dumb enough to call small PP with no implied odds, cant he also do it with AJdd+ and then c/r this flop? i am really confused.... most of you are better then me so i wait for your opinions.

[EasyPoker]

1. I'd make my 3bet sizing higher for a start: 3x + 1x for limper.
2. Villain's range here is 99+,77,44,22,AdKd,KdQd,QdJd and quite possibly some straight draws (though I don't think we'll see this too often at all)...
3. Against this range, AA = 71%

Hand 0: 71.639% 70.51% 01.13% 178005 2848.50 { AA }
Hand 1: 28.361% 27.23% 01.13% 68748 2848.50 { 99+, 77, 44, 22, AdKd, KdQd, QdJd }

So for me it's a shove.

[Hoopy]

I'd ship it in. We see overpairs more than 77/44/22

[daviddem]

0) raise a little more pre, like 0.55 or 0.60
0b) He is not far from having odds to set mine.
1) Discount QQ+ that would 3b pre
2) Discount AdKd, KdQd that are more likely to check-shove than check-minraise imo (esp. AdKd). Minraising with KdQd or the likes is a decent play but requests that he has reads that you are not trigger happy.
3) Would he really raise with JJ-88 (esp 88-99) after the 3b preflop + near pot cbet? Even if he raises, I am pretty sure he won't call a shove with these.

Without reads I don't mind folding to a line that reeks of a set. But then, I am a nit...

[EasyPoker]

I don't think we can ever blanketly discount any premium hand at these stakes. We don't know the table dynamics, Razvan's image etc.

[Razvan729]

image doesnt matter that much at 5nl.

well... i am a nonbeliever.... so i shoved over him... donk shows 5s6s so i guess i am really weak at ranges and reading opps

[Carroters]

Again folding here would be pretty bad. There are so many threads being made right now where villains take lines that in no way narrow their ranges to only the nuts yet people are wanting to make rediculous folds. Vs an unknown in a 3 bet pot here at 5NL you're going to have to make a very inaccurate pescimistic range to justify a fold.

[Carroters]

To attempt to illustrate what I mean one more time. Here's an extremely pescimistic retarded range that omits all potential spazz and wow look at that, it's still a call/shove due to pot size etc....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.926% 41.93% 00.00% 6226 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 58.074% 58.07% 00.00% 8624 0.00 { JJ, 77, 44, 22 }

If anyone else wants to advocate folding in a spot like this, you're going have to show why my range above is too loose and I'll quit poker for life if anyone can successfuly do this, because lol at that being too loose vs a random at 5NL here for a multitude of reasons.

Noone better claim they want to fold without stoving or knowing what their equity is like in relation to the pot odds they need.

[Carroters]

Basically there are always very few combos of sets in relation to other potential hands so you have to weight a range massively towards them to render a spot like this a fold.

[Razvan729]

this is just my opinion.... but at 5 nl you have to take some risks, most of the 5nl players are donk... bigger donks the me even :P

anyway, i post hands and try to assign ranges where i can, and try to read opps to help me further in my game...

at 5nl you will be very surprised a lot of times by the hands they show at SD and the lines they take pre/post flop.

[Carroters]

Yes not putting at least some spazz or overpairs in a randoms range here at 5NL is terrible. Making hero folds against tards or likely tards is also terrible. But the main point is: LOOK AT THAT RANGE ABOVE LOL.

The problem with most of you guys is that you refuse to stove ranges and back up your claims with evidence. Hence you end up bouncing semi relevant, but not primarily important ideas off each other and don't get to the heart of the issue as quickly as you should.

We can't magically give villain a completely accurate range here; it'd be absurd to believe anyone could. However, we can make good judgements, stove equity vs hypothetical ranges, and through this process we can come to the right decision.

[Razvan729]

JJ, 77,44,22 is a very good range for him to minraise here... and a shove over on flop vs that range is very good.

[daviddem]

To attempt to illustrate what I mean one more time. Here's an extremely pescimistic retarded range that omits all potential spazz and wow look at that, it's still a call/shove due to pot size etc....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.926% 41.93% 00.00% 6226 0.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 58.074% 58.07% 00.00% 8624 0.00 { JJ, 77, 44, 22 }

If anyone else wants to advocate folding in a spot like this, you're going have to show why my range above is too loose and I'll quit poker for life if anyone can successfuly do this, because lol at that being too loose vs a random at 5NL here for a multitude of reasons.

Noone better claim they want to fold without stoving or knowing what their equity is like in relation to the pot odds they need.

I don't know if your range is so pessimistic. Actually, check raising with JJ after a 3b preflop and a near pot cbet with JJ is pretty donkish imo, and we don't know at this point whether he is a donk. I agree with you to include spazz and retarded hands in ranges, but only once we have reads.

If we take a range with which it is a better play to c/r like 77,44,22,AdKd,KdQd,65s, see what happens to our equity:

Board: 4s 7d 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.502% 30.47% 00.03% 4525 4.50 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 69.498% 69.47% 00.03% 10316 4.50 { 77, 44, 22, AdKd, KdQd, 65s }

Even if we give him two combos of JJ, it's still not a call (if we pretend that calling the raise is equivalent to calling an all-in).

Again, I may be too pessimistic and too nitty, but it seems to me that my winrate has improved since I stopped spewing in spots like these vs unknowns. Unknown is not necessarily a donk.

[Carroters]

This is 5NL, assume your opponent is bad unless otherwise shown. This doesn't mean assume he's always super wide in every spot, but to include no combos of overpairs and only include sets and a few draws is just a bad mistake here.

Ravzvan: his range isn't likely to be as tight as sets and JJ, it will probably contain more overpairs than this and some random spazz with bad draws etc too. Our equity is likely better than 42% or w/e here. Again the range I made was to illustrate a point, since it's difficult to make a range exactly.

Davidem, assuming villains at these levels are competent and can play overpairs well and avoid overplaying hands is seriously a misjudgement. An assumption should target the majority of villains not the minority so there's absolutely no logical reasons to assume rigidly nitty ranges until otherwise informed.

Assume the range you'll most commonly run into vs unknowns at this limit, not the range a very select few villains will have; and believe me: this range is a far cry from that rediculously tight range you've just provided. You still seem to be missing the fact that it takes very very few combos of overpairs or spew to make this a call because sets are only 9 combos if he even has all of these due to preflop.

Your logic is also pretty bad in that if you want to assume he calls small pocket pairs preflop so frequently that he has all 9 combos here, I have no idea how you can at the same time assume that he will ALWAYS play overpairs well (not raise) and NEVER spew with other hands. It's just so inconsistent and picks out such a strange rare type of villain (for these limits especially) that it will be an error here.

Being able to fold is an awesome skill to pick up early in your career, but doing it here is a often big mistake, calling here or raising is never a big mistake here. Again, please try to think about combos and equity vs pot odds.

[Carroters]

If we take a range which is illogical and assumes this random 5NL villain thinks exactly like me and is competent, see what happens to our equity

FYP

[Carroters]

Also it's really weird that your loaction is The Phillipenes and Saudi Arabia because I've been seeing this girl who's half phillipino and has lived in Saudi for a long time. I thought she was the only one.....

[daviddem]

FWIW I am from Belgium originally, I live in the Philippines (with a 100% Filipina and her twin daughters) and I work rotations on the oil rigs in Saudi Arabia (one month work, one month off). I used to live and work in Dubai before that. I love the Philippines and its people. Can't say the same of Saudi unfortunately...

Guess where we diverge most is how we consider "unknown". As you say, I tend to take a likely too conservative approach of assuming that opp is mildly competent until proven otherwise. This is probably a leak and negatively affects my winrate, but it also reduces variance a bit. And it is true that by default vs unknown I ask myself "what would I think of possibly minraising in this spot?", and that's the range I give them until I know better. And yes, I have beaten myself several times in the past for folds vs villains which proved to be super-donks or aggro-tards in the next 10 hands. But then I also have lost stacks to opps who proved supernits and who could only have had a set when playing this way.

[EasyPoker]

image doesnt matter that much at 5nl.

It did to me...I don't play there anymore though...

[d0zer]

JJ, 77,44,22 is a very good range for him to minraise here...

I lul'd!

[Razvan729]

I lul'd!

yep... i really have to learn to express myself right in english since sentences like that can be understood in lots of different ways some funny ways

what i wanted to say is that sets will raise for value vs my overpairs and to make me pay if i have the NFD with AKdd, which is in my 3bet range.

JJ might also do a c/r raise also since i have enough AK combos in my 3bet range, if he bets first then i will fold my AK's, except AKdd , but like this he gets money from me cbetting the flop with all of my preflop range, which in his opinion is QQ+, AK.

by doing a c/r he also has some FE vs hero's that fold QQ+.

is this better said then " a good range to minraise here" ? or do i still have to work on my english?