Middle Pair plus alot of outs...

[Ghaleon]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP) (t1410)
Button (t3205)
SB (t1505)
BB (t1775)
UTG (t1105)
Hero's M: 18.80
Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q
UTG bets t100, Hero calls t100, Button calls t100, 1 fold, BB calls t50
Flop: (t425) 10, K, Q (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t225, 2 folds, UTG calls t225
Turn: (t875) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

I feel like I should have raised pre-flop. Just to discourage action from the button and blinds. Villain is 19/5 over 21 hands. Not much more of a read than that.

As played though, is my bet sizing ok on the flop? What do I do on the turn?

[taipan168]

I don't play 6-max, but I'm folding AQo preflop pretty quickly against a 19/5 player (even with a small sample size) raising from UTG.

As played, with a pair, a gutshot and the nut flush draw I would bet a little more on the flop with the intention of getting it AI on the turn. 300 on the flop seems good.

On the turn, what are you waiting for? Just get it in, UTG has less than a PSB left.

[Ghaleon]

Why should I fold AQo. Should I really be worried about a min-raise at a 6-max table? I'm only scared of AA, KK, QQ, or AK. If I fold, I think I'm giving up alot of value from AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, all of which are hands that I see min-raised in an $11 6-max. Isn't it also possible that I could see KT, QJ, QT, JT, Ax, or a small/mid pair.

[taipan168]

Why should I fold AQo. Should I really be worried about a min-raise at a 6-max table? I'm only scared of AA, KK, QQ, or AK. If I fold, I think I'm giving up alot of value from AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, all of which are hands that I see min-raised in an $11 6-max. Isn't it also possible that I could see KT, QJ, QT, JT, Ax, or a small/mid pair.

Well, that's the value of stats. If UTG's stats were 60/40 or 50/30 or something LAGG like that then I wouldn't fold it. However, you posted that the player was 19/5, and I certainly wouldn't expect a 19/5 player to be raising hands like the ones you mentioned (AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT etc) from UTG and I WOULD expect that the hands that you are scared of would be a big part of his range.

Position is also critical. If it was the same 19/5 player open raising from the button and you were in the blinds then I wouldn't fold either.

[baudib]

Problem with AQo is it plays so poorly against an UTG range from a tight player. This is top 5%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.601% 26.74% 09.86% 263746200 97244256.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 63.399% 53.54% 09.86% 528052392 97244256.00 { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }

It's so considerably weaker against this ultra-tight range than AKo.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.466% 40.65% 09.81% 400954872 96780522.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 49.534% 39.72% 09.81% 391771188 96780522.00 { TT+, AJs+, AQo+ }

[dneureiter]

For 5 handed and considering stats are only over 20 hands they are quite irrelevant. I think the call pre is fine since he opens at least 88 and ATs, and AJ if not wider.

As played lean towards checking back the flop since its 3 handed and extremely easy check back the turn.

[drmcboy]

I think 19/5 just means he's a clown if anything but mostly agree it shouldn't be a big factor.

i'm with Tai, bet a bit more to set up turn jam. You can get better to fold and worse to call, checking seems bad to me.