NL 10 - Am I ever good here?

[Raoni_Poker]

Hi, all

Its been a while since my last hand posted here. This hand was played at Full Tilt Poker with a huge donkey. I had some history with him early on, I value bet 99 on the river in the board KKQ27 rainbow. Flop goes check/check, he gay bets turn, I raise he calls and checks river. I value bet small and he calls with JQ (it seemed that he was very passive at first).

I won a big pot from him with AA against JJ (he calls my 3 bet and I extract 2 streets). He was 46/10 over 45 hands and the following happened:

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($10.17)
MP ($10.74)
CO ($10)
Button ($16.13)
Hero (SB) ($13.92)
BB ($10)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A
UTG bets $0.35, 2 folds, Button calls $0.35, Hero raises $1.35, 2 folds, Button calls $1.05

Pretty standard squeeze with a bet and a call. I could be concerned with the first raiser, but he is calling here with a narrow range as the other guy is still to act. Donkey call probably with medium/small pairs, medium SCs and broadways (QJ+).

Flop: ($3.25) A, 4, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.90, Button calls $2.90

Pretty good flop. I think he calls with lots of draws, medium pairs and weak aces. 2 pairs and trips would probably raise here most of the time.

Turn: ($9.05) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.80, Button raises $11.83 (All-In), Hero calls $5.82 (All-In)
River: ($28.29) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $28.29

This is the sick part. With other draw in the board I expect him to do this move a bit wider than he would (there are more draws that he can have or protect his hand against). Few sets are in his range here. AQ is possible, suited broadways, nut FDs, etc.

I stoved the hand and the results vary a lot depending on if he is playing like that with draws and weak aces or not. With some draws, weak aces, sets and AQ it is a flip. Without the draws, weak aces that do not make 2-pair I have 30% equity. The pot is laying me 21%. The question here is...is folding here ever correct despite the odds? Should we ever go against the odds based on the action?

PS: I searched the guy after the game, he is one of the biggest losers of NL10. The first image that I had is that he was over cautious (in the first hand). In this hand, though, I was surprised (his actual hand is not in my range).

[tyrn]

You've got something like 25% pot odds and no reads that this guy doesn't have hands like A8 in his range.

The real question is why not just ship turn instead of sizing it so you can't fold to a shove and giving good odds for draws.

[daviddem]

Is the squeeze pre with AJo OOP vs UTG raise + station really standard?

[Raoni_Poker]

Is the squeeze pre with AJo OOP vs UTG raise + station really standard?

The first raise was not a nit and had the other guy still to act. If he comes over then top I would play perfectly against him (as he is definitely ahead). If he calls, I would be more cautious with 2 other players in a wet board like this.

With regards to the calling station, I don't have a problem in seeing a flop with him. I'm definitely ahead of his range. My squeeze is for value against him (even though it can work as a bluff to the first player, which can release AQ or PPs...hands ahead of mine).

[couriermike]

Not a big fan of the squeeze, basically a bluff. Otherwise agree with tyrn, shove the turn and charge any draws the max. You're totally committed at this point.

Probably you're beat on the turn. But 2/3 of your stack is in the pot. Ugly spot.

The earlier hand you mentioned shows villain as being passive and call-y. That makes his turn shove here even more scary.

[Sasquach991]

A passive calling station's 3x raise on the turn looks super strong to me. You haven't mentioned him raising at all until now. Looks like some dumbass 2 pair hand like Q4,Q2 or sick QQ hand

[Imthenewfish]

Idk if this is that relevant because of small sample size but whats his ATS

[Razvan729]

i wouldnt have reraised AJo pre flop....

the flop isnt great for AJ, you TP3K so is not that sweet... i would c/c

turn with the Q is damn obvious you are beat. QQ, AQ,AK so just fold that reraise, again i would just c/c , but if bet is big on turn i would fold.

my opinion the play was bad.

[Raoni_Poker]

I agree that shoving the turn is probably the best here as I would extract value from draws (when they call and miss). Betting small like I did only works if I'm deep enough to fold to a raise (which was not the case). My thought was to keep hands like medium pairs, but I guess he would call my shove anyways. AQ hits his range hard, even though there are only 2 aces available (6 combos, right?).

I really thought that the squeeze was standard here in this situation, but apparently, its not. I'm curious, how would you play here? Is flatting in the SB better than the squeeze or we are ever folding this pre flop?

I still think that against these opponents, the squeeze is the best option, but I'm interested to know which line would you take. If we flat and an Ace comes...would you check/call flop and check/fold turn? Check/call turn and check/fold river?

[daviddem]

I really thought that the squeeze was standard here in this situation, but apparently, its not. I'm curious, how would you play here? Is flatting in the SB better than the squeeze or we are ever folding this pre flop?

The way I'd play it would really depend on UTG. If I have a read that I am not dominated most of the time, then I'd probably flat it. If not I could easily fold it (I have quite a dislike for AJ in general*, so playing it OOP in a multiway pot where I would be dominated a considerable % of the time does not appeal much to me).

If an A comes on the flop, I'd probably donk it on wet flops, the rationale being that since there are only two A's left in the deck, it is less likely that my opps hold one, so it is less likely that they'll cbet or bet the A-high flop, since it is multiway. On dry flops c/c seems like a good option.

Then if heads up vs fish on the above board, I b/f the turn unless I have a very strong read that he is spazzing with air or a draw or a worse hand. When passive fishes start raising, it most of the time means a very strong hand.

Don't take my word for it though, there's probably a player better than me who will show up and explain why what I said is retarded...

I'm from south of Belgium, BTW.

*At 6max I open AJ in any position at most tables, and I raise limpers or reraise aggrotards, but I am very wary of calling a (non steal) raise with it, esp. OOP. At FR I only started opening it in MP because people on the forum gave me shit for not doing it.

[couriermike]

I think the squeeze is a style difference. Some people 3-bet more, some less. You did isolate the fish with a hand that dominates his range, and you easily could have bluffed utg, like you said. So that was good.

If we had flatted and an ace came on the flop, I'd probably b/f barrel with the fish in the pot.

[nickatina-69]

i would fold this to UTG raise.

[Razvan729]

in a 3-5 bb raise limit you can call, there are chances to win with it even if we are dominated pre, just that on just an A pair, J kicker i wouldnt put my hopes up... hit at least 2 pair with no K or Q on board is better

[Raoni_Poker]

If I'm flat calling in the SB to hit 2pair+, I should do the same with any aces. Actually, a hand like JQs or any suited aces would be even better.

Anyway, I don't see much value in playing many of these suited connectors at NL10 (except from the button in unopened pots). I'm usually not flatting in the SB without a pocket pair or a suited ace (if the raise was small or in limped pots).

[tyrn]

What are UTG's stats? 3-betting AJ isn't necessarily always a bluff, depends on the other player's stats.

Ignoring UTG since you didn't post his stats. Since button is limping a very wide range, 3-bet vs him makes sense, as well as pot on flop and ship turn. He's not folding medium pairs after he calls the flop.

If UTG is a nit, AJ is a pretty easy fold from SB.

[OngBonga]

Man is this not a standard snapfold pre?

[Raoni_Poker]

My mistake...I forgot to post his stats. UTG was 28/22 over 71 hands and his EP raise was 25%

[Icanhastreebet]

WP. Just typed of a decently long explanation and it failed to post so...I'll do it again tomorrow if someone would like to know why this is like the easiest squeeze ever.

[daviddem]

WP. Just typed of a decently long explanation and it failed to post so...I'll do it again tomorrow if someone would like to know why this is like the easiest squeeze ever.

@ Yaawn: I would.

@OP: when I said ↓↓, he is the guy ↑↑:

Don't take my word for it though, there's probably a player better than me who will show up and explain why what I said is retarded...

Listen to him, not to me.

[compudaze]

Should have folded PF IMHO.

[OngBonga]

My mistake...I forgot to post his stats. UTG was 28/22 over 71 hands and his EP raise was 25%

Ok so maybe not snapfold. I'd still fold it myself but it's not so bad a squeeze if this guy is raising 25% from EP.

[Razvan729]

over 71 hands//// not to many over him, the man may have had a pretty good hitting great hands early.... so i dont know.... to small sample to say he is loose UTG open to 25%.... still just flat AJ there

[Razvan729]

If I'm flat calling in the SB to hit 2pair+, I should do the same with any aces. Actually, a hand like JQs or any suited aces would be even better.

Anyway, I don't see much value in playing many of these suited connectors at NL10 (except from the button in unopened pots). I'm usually not flatting in the SB without a pocket pair or a suited ace (if the raise was small or in limped pots).

yup in SB could flat some suited connectors to surprise UTG if the case.... not often and not with any UTG...

so you reraised and he called? what is your range for him after called reraise?

if he is early loose lets give him 88+ and AQs+, AQo+

after flop, with his loosesnes he cold call that with JJ+ and def AQs+, AQo+.... so when he rerarise the turn your toasted.... you only beat JJ and KK of his range and those combos are 6KK. 3JJ so 9 combos.... he has alot more combos that beat you so calling it is -EV... why call then?

[Icanhastreebet]

yup in SB could flat some suited connectors to surprise UTG if the case.... not often and not with any UTG...

so you reraised and he called? what is your range for him after called reraise?

if he is early loose lets give him 88+ and AQs+, AQo+

after flop, with his loosesnes he cold call that with JJ+ and def AQs+, AQo+.... so when he rerarise the turn your toasted.... you only beat JJ and KK of his range and those combos are 6KK. 3JJ so 9 combos.... he has alot more combos that beat you so calling it is -EV... why call then?

You are giving the BTN wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much credit here and fwiw if his continuing range was that pre, you DEFINATELY should 3b pre since he's folding like 90%

[Icanhastreebet]

Basically this is an easy 3b because either

A) Both players fold too much(They are opening so wide, if they aren't folding TOO much then they both calling a range we dominate)

B) UTG folds a lot because he gives us credit(Super standard assumption we can make) and BTN continues w/ a hugely dominated range which we loveeeeeeeeee to play again.

C) They both call too much in which case we are probably ahead of both players and easily outplay an aggrotard/passive guy even if we are OOP.

In every situation(B occurs the most and is the most eV for us) we will be +eV with a 3b.

Also someone mentioned flatting pre(This is +eV too) but not as +eV as 3bing. The point I wanted to make is they said flat pre and lead THIS flop. This is not good because of relative position and how aggressive the opener is.

We Act, Aggro Acts, Fish Acts.

We want to check to the aggro opener so he can c-bet(Probably near 100% on this flop), fish calls and boom loads of dead money in the pot. From here you can call/lead turn or c/r. If we lead the aggro will end up folding a decent % of the time(Boom we miss a bet) or he could raise us, force the fish to fold a range that he would have continued to 1 bet with that is hugely dominated. We also end up probably b/fing and making a huge mistake which is a disaster .

Any more questions?

[Imthenewfish]

Any more questions?

Can you give me a guesstimate of your 3b'ing range here

[daviddem]

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet
Also someone mentioned flatting pre(This is +eV too) but not as +eV as 3bing. The point I wanted to make is they said flat pre and lead THIS flop. This is not good because of relative position and how aggressive the opener is.

We Act, Aggro Acts, Fish Acts.

We want to check to the aggro opener so he can c-bet(Probably near 100% on this flop), fish calls and boom loads of dead money in the pot. From here you can call/lead turn or c/r. If we lead the aggro will end up folding a decent % of the time(Boom we miss a bet) or he could raise us, force the fish to fold a range that he would have continued to 1 bet with that is hugely dominated. We also end up probably b/fing and making a huge mistake which is a disaster .

OK I can see how that could be worse than giving a free card.

Just wanted to ask you, when you say that UTG cbets near 100% of the time here, is this a standard play? If I am UTG in this situation without an A vs 2 opps (esp. OOP or sandwiched), I tend not to cbet my air because of the likelihood that one of my opps is holding one and is going to raise my cbet and/or flat it while I am dominated. Is this a leak of mine? Note that heads up is different, I happily cbet an A high flop with my air the vast majority of the time.

[Icanhastreebet]

OK I can see how that could be worse than giving a free card.

Just wanted to ask you, when you say that UTG cbets near 100% of the time here, is this a standard play? If I am UTG in this situation without an A vs 2 opps (esp. OOP or sandwiched), I tend not to cbet my air because of the likelihood that one of my opps is holding one and is going to raise my cbet and/or flat it while I am dominated. Is this a leak of mine? Note that heads up is different, I happily cbet an A high flop with my air the vast majority of the time.

c-betting is gonna be profitable 3way on most dry ace high flops, just because there is a flush draw doesn't make it a wet board. This 42/x is gonna miss a TONNE, remember to make a 2/3 c-bet profitable(You can 1/2 pot here probably) you only need everyone to fold 40%.

[daviddem]

c-betting is gonna be profitable 3way on most dry ace high flops, just because there is a flush draw doesn't make it a wet board. This 42/x is gonna miss a TONNE, remember to make a 2/3 c-bet profitable(You can 1/2 pot here probably) you only need everyone to fold 40%.

Thanks I'm going to start doing that more often then.

@OP: sorry for hijack

[Icanhastreebet]

Thanks I'm going to start doing that more often then.

@OP: sorry for hijack

Just do it over a decent sample size in spots where people don't have super strong ranges and you see it being profitable.