10NL 6max, set on monotone flop

[couriermike]

Villain is 21/13 over 31 hands, not fishy or spewy. MP posted a blind and folded.

When he c/r's the flop, he could have the flush, better set, big draw, overpairs, maybe worse made hands. I don't think he ever has air.

How do you guys play this? Is bet/shove standard?

I don't want to fold the set on the flop, and I don't want to call, and if I'm drawing to the boat, I want to see both cards. So I always thought this was standard, but I'm not sure.

If I did the math right, and he only ever calls with the flush (not gonna worry about set over set right now, that's only 6 combos), then the shove breaks even if he folds about 20% of the time.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($12.15)
UTG ($25)
MP ($10)
CO ($12)
Hero (Button) ($11.43)
SB ($10.13)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2
UTG bets $0.45, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.45, 1 fold, BB calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.50) 2, 10, 4 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.10, 1 fold, UTG raises to $2.20, Hero raises to $10.98 (All-In)

[deucesomething]

wp imo

[daviddem]

If I did the math right, and he only ever calls with the flush (not gonna worry about set over set right now, that's only 6 combos), then the shove breaks even if he folds about 20% of the time.

If he has a made flush you need 22.8% fold equity. However I don't think he is ever folding a flush, esp. if it's A or K high as is likely since he raised UTG pre.

Maybe he could be doing this as a semi-bluff himself if he is holding the As or Ks, but in this case I am not sure how confident you can be that he will call your shove. edit: he probably would as he most likely would have As or Ks + another overcard, so his draw looks stronger to him than it actually is as he can't put you only on sets

Against a {AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,KsQs,AcKs,AdKs,AhKs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh ,AsJc,AsJd,AsJh,KsQc,KsQd,KsQh}
range I have you at 61.7% equity. I discounted the oversets and AsA and KsK because it seems very unlikely he would check the flop with these on this board.

Against this range I would shove and hope he calls with his draws. If not, you always get the dead money to compensate a bit.

Now to stick with your initial scenario where he only check/minraises you with a made flush, and on the premise that he will never fold his flush, it seems better to call to see the next card (you have enough implied odds): since his hole cards do not pair with the board, you have 7 cards out of 45 (15.5%) in the deck giving you a FH or quads on the turn. The pot odds are 18.6%, but you almost certainly get at least an extra street of value when you hit. And if you don't hit you may be lucky on the turn if he continues to slow play it and bets silly small again, then you might be priced in to see the river.

[spoonitnow]

Knowing what flushes are in his range would be useful -- note that there are only 6 broadway flushes he can have.

[couriermike]

His preflop range is a little wider since there was a poster but really only his flop range matters.

When he c/min-raises, I think his range is
sets, 6 combos
overpairs, 24 combos. 12 of those have a flush draw
broadway flushes A9s+, KTs+ and QJs, that's 9 combos
nfd + overs, AsTo+, that's 16 combos
rarely, non-nut fd's + overs, discount those to 4 combos (just b/c the c/mr looks strong imo).

So, when i shove, say he always calls with a flush or set, overpairs with a fd, half the time with a nfd+overs, and folds everything else. Just to be conservative since I'm not sure how he plays. Range could easily be wider or narrower.

So he'd call with 37 combos, out of 59 total combos, giving me FE of 37%. That might be optimistic, so worst case scenario he folds 25% of the time.

And our equity is 57% against that range so obv very +EV.

However, if his range when he c/min-raises, as opposed to calling or shoving or raising bigger, is only flushes, which he never folds of course, then we're only 35% and it sucks.

Overall it seems OK to pretty good.

[couriermike]

If he has a made flush you need 22.8% fold equity. However I don't think he is ever folding a flush, esp. if it's A or K high as is likely since he raised UTG pre.

Maybe he could be doing this as a semi-bluff himself if he is holding the As or Ks, but in this case I am not sure how confident you can be that he will call your shove. edit: he probably would as he most likely would have As or Ks + another overcard, so his draw looks stronger to him than it actually is as he can't put you only on sets

Against a {AsKs,AsQs,AsJs,KsQs,AcKs,AdKs,AhKs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh ,AsJc,AsJd,AsJh,KsQc,KsQd,KsQh}
range I have you at 61.7% equity. I discounted the oversets and AsA and KsK because it seems very unlikely he would check the flop with these on this board.

Against this range I would shove and hope he calls with his draws. If not, you always get the dead money to compensate a bit.

Now to stick with your initial scenario where he only check/minraises you with a made flush, and on the premise that he will never fold his flush, it seems better to call to see the next card (you have enough implied odds): since his hole cards do not pair with the board, you have 7 cards out of 45 (15.5%) in the deck giving you a FH or quads on the turn. The pot odds are 18.6%, but you almost certainly get at least an extra street of value when you hit. And if you don't hit you may be lucky on the turn if he continues to slow play it and bets silly small again, then you might be priced in to see the river.

these are some good points. i never thought about calling the min-raise and that is an option.