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 Originally Posted by Donachello
Like I said, villain is unknown, like... 17/0 with a 7 aggression factor over like 6 hands or something. His stack size is kind of weird though I don't remember how much he actually bought in for. It's safe to assume he is probably pretty meh given that this is 10NL fr.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($11.24)
Button ($10.32)
SB ($10)
BB ($10.64)
UTG ($10.11)
UTG+1 ($6.12)
MP1 ($8.96)
Hero (MP2) ($10)
MP3 ($7.50)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A  , K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.35, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35, MP3 calls $0.35, 3 folds, BB calls $0.25
I have no idea why I didn't 3bet this preflop except that I don't like getting AKo in pre at FR but this is still retarded to not 3bet here.
Flop: ($1.45) Q , 3  , 7 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1, MP3 calls $1, 2 folds
I decide to stab with overs and backdoor NFD
Turn: ($3.45) 6 (2 players)
Turn brings in NFD, villain has 6.50 behind. THE F DO? His range is probably all over the place with random high cards, Ax, Qx, low PP, spades, shit like 45.
Basically this hand is stupid and could be fixed by 3betting pre. But the turn is where I would like comments on since checking essentially probably induces a bet which puts my hand in a meh spot.
Ok so once again I am doing this for my own practice please don't think this is an attempt to give advice! I haven't read any of the responses either so please nobody take any of what I am saying as a retort to something already stated.
I struggle with what type of range to give somebody with such a small sample but I would think it is safe to say he is going to turn out to be pretty tight although all he has done it limp so far. Given that I would think maybe something like {77+,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo}
Pre-flop I am sure you already regret not raising so we'll not dwell on that. Had I played it I think I would have raised it upto around $1.25ish.
When villain checks the flop I like the bet but not the amount as I would think psb would be better? I'm betting here to either take it down or for value against should villain stay in with a made pair of which I'll be ahead should I catch either an A or K. Not giving much thought to the backdoor flush draw really at this point. So he calls our bet and now we have to narrow his range. I have a hard time narrowing it down much really I drop AA and KK because I figured he'd raise these but I'm not really sure. Does his limping lead us to think he could be a slow player? At any rate I come up with QQ-77,AQs,KJs+,QJs,AQo+,A7o,KQo,QJo for his continueing range. And we are a mile behind at this point with only 26.867% equity!
Having not narrowed his range much at all the turn doesn't change things for us a lot really. We picked up 1.197% so now we're a whopping 32.172%! Based on this now I am leaning towards a pot sized bet hoping our fold equity is on our side. I think since we hold the As we can represent the nut flush. Now this may be the biggest flaw in my thinking but I'm betting with a plan to fold should I get raised. Of course I put myself in a spot should I just get called and don't hit either the flush of tptk on the turn.
Really not trying to hi-jack the thread but would appreciate any feed back on my thinking!
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