Chance of SF higher than 3-8d

[Ree84]

Hi,

Not sure if this is the right place to ask this question, but it feels like a beginner's question anyway:

The case is the following: I played a live qualifier for a a tournament in Amsterdam. There are 10 qualifiers with 80 entrants each of which 5 advance to the final. In addition to those 50 people, 20 qualify online, a couple of wildcards are awarded and ONE person qualifies who has had the best hand at showdown of all 10 qualifiers put together.

Yesterday, at the first of the 10 qualifiers, I won a showdown with Straight FLush 3-8 diamonds. (total suckout btw: called a pre-flop all-in worth 1/3 my stack with Ks4d vs QdQs. Flop: Qh,5d,6d) The officals told me that last year a guy had won that spot with 4 of a kind Jacks, 10 kicker.

So the question is: What chance is there that a hand will go to showdown which is better than the 3-8SF? Globally. Or can someone explain how to calculate such a thing...? Keep in mind that there are 9 remaining qualifiers. (stacks 4000, blind levels 20 mins, 1st blinds 25-50)

It's important because I need to cancel a vacation on time for the tourney if i have a reasonable chance of having the highest hand all over...

[daviddem]

You can't calculate that precisely so you have to make assumptions.

First, when you draw 7 random cards from a pack of 52, you get one of 133,784,560 possible 7 cards combinations. 37,260 of all these possible combinations contain a non royal straight flush and 4,324 contain a royal straight flush. 5 out of 9 non royal straight flushes are better than yours, so that is 20,700 combinations plus the 4,324 royal flushes, so that is 25,024 combos out of the 133,784,560 contain a hand better than your straight flush. So the chance that you do NOT draw a straight flush better than yours in one draw is 99.9812953%.

Now let's say that everyone always limps preflop and check down their hand to the showdown. There are 9 remaining qualifiers. There are average 4 tables per qualifier (8 to start, 1 to finish), 10 players per table and they play 30 hands per hour and the duration of a qualifier is 6 hours. That would be 9*4*10*30*6=64,800 hands between all the showdowns.

Now more realistically, probably only 1 hand out of 5 goes to showdown and there are, say, 2.2 players per showdown, not 10. So that's roughly 2850 hands at showdown. This is difficult to estimate precisely, so if you have any way of coming up with a better number, do it.

The chance that none of these 2850 hands will be a straight flush better than yours is then 0.999812953^2850=58.7%

Guess you could spend your entire life trying to refine the calculation...

[JustinSKS]

I think I would cancel that vacation if I were you.

[daviddem]

I think I would cancel that vacation if I were you.

idk, if he calls an all in preflop with K4o for 1/3rd of his chips, he may not last long in the main event...

[spoonitnow]

{Locked}

Don't cancel your vacation. Best of luck.