limped pot bb special, 2nd nut flush. River paired board...

[daven]

ok, pre and sometimes i'm raising it up here and sometimes i just check.
flop is bingo and i donk lead heaps so why not do it with a made hand once in a while, Villain is obviously calling any Asx, as is any hand TJ+ especially if it has a flush draw. My image is splashy. Villain who calls is classic aggro-tard with weak tendencies. Haven't seen him raise as a bluff. He's 36-16-5 over 200 hands, only big pot action was super standard TPTK vs set yaawn. He doesn't seem to like folding too much post-flop, nor raising.

I'm interested in both turn and river. Turn I can consider c-bomb except i hate giving a free card/missing value to the Asx that makes up a bunch of his range cos he'll be checking that behind.

river is pretty gross. Like, it's gotta be a scare card for both of us.
bet-fold like $6.50 or check-call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($9.76)
UTG+1 ($10.51)
MP1 ($11.64)
MP2 ($35.48)
MP3 ($21.31)
CO ($12.13)
Button ($26.16)
Hero (SB) ($52.25)
BB ($80.03)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, K
5 folds, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 4, J, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1

Turn: ($3) J (2 players)
Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

River: ($9) Q (2 players)
so, oop rocks...

[Razvan729]

check call i think.... calling on the flop is ok from him,maybe doesnt believe you have have flush and he has something to hope for... calling the also makes me think he is on A high flush made hand or he has the full.... calling the turn for flush draw with A high seems stupid... c/c river i think bets option, i would do like this.

[daviddem]

pre: I think you can discount JQ+, he would raise that, no? That leaves J9,JT, maybe J8, J7?

flop: I'd think he calls with his single pair J hands and Asx, putting you on either a pair of J, two pairs, a set, a semi-bluff or a made flush. No way he slow plays a set or two pairs here, although you never know with sets. Would he not semi-bluff raise his Asx sometimes here if he is aggro-tard? Obviously he may be slow playing the nut flush with As8s-As2s (other aces are a pre raise) or even maybe a Q high flush as well, say Qs9s to Qs6s

turn: unless he is a complete retard, there is no way he calls with Asx. I think he still calls his trip J hands, actually all of them including the boat. Difficult to say what he would do with a A or Q flush when the range you are repping is mostly trip J's and lower flushes with only a few sets/boats or better flushes. So let's keep it there. That's As8s,As6s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,Qs9s,Qs8s,Qs6s,J7s+, J7o+ on the river and you have 69% against this range (or 66% if the Q flush is not there or 59% if the flopped sets are there)

If your image is splashy, he might call a bet with his trips or Q flush when he has them. Problem is, I wonder if he might not spazz with his Q flush or even trips and raise you, in which case you would have to fold the best hand.

I think I like b/f better than c/c. You loose a lot of value when he checks behind with a worse hand that he would have called a bet with.

In any case, I don't get why you say that the river is a scare card for both of you, so maybe my entire reasoning is completely wrong...

[Razvan729]

i dont get it.... why should you bet 6 $ on that board with nothing when he called both flop and turn? i dont think that one is just menthal sick to call for 4$ with nothing and we know his passive///doesnt fold doesnt raise. he might as well be on a small pair.

[daviddem]

i dont get it.... why should you bet 6 $ on that board with nothing when he called both flop and turn? i dont think that one is just menthal sick to call for 4$ with nothing. he might as well be on a small pair.

what do you mean nothing? we have a K high flush since the flop

[Razvan729]

sorry man... i am an idiot.... wrote on the wrong topic my bad... so yes... what david says is right

[supa]

He doesn't seem to like folding too much post-flop, nor raising.

Given this read he's not folding many decent hands and prolly has us crushed if he raises so yeah, b/f.

[daven]

cool, i think bet-fold is best here.
as played i checked and he bet $3, probably too thin to check-shove?

[Icanhastreebet]

if we're checking it's to c/shove, if we're betting it's to call a shove unless this guy is suppppppppppppppper passive. Also don't raise pre unless someone is ridicuously bad and you want to iso them.

[daviddem]

if we're checking it's to c/shove, if we're betting it's to call a shove unless this guy is suppppppppppppppper passive. Also don't raise pre unless someone is ridicuously bad and you want to iso them.

What is he going to call a shove with that we beat? He *might* lay down the nut flush if he has it, but that's the only better hand that we could possibly fold.

[Razvan729]

and you called the 3 $ bet on the river? i think you should cause you were about to invest 6$ on a bet river so calling 3$ to SD seems ok.

[Icanhastreebet]

cool, i think bet-fold is best here.
as played i checked and he bet $3, probably too thin to check-shove?

if he somehow has a boat or the nutflush when he bets 3 and doesn't raise the flop or turn then wtf. but please shove the river. also lol @ the post about getting him to fold the nut flush. he's gonna have so many Jx w/ a random spade that's never folding that not shoving should be a crime

[daviddem]

Read again, I agree that he is not folding the nut flush. I don't agree that he calls a shove with Jx though. Would you?

[daven]

What is he going to call a shove with that we beat? He *might* lay down the nut flush if he has it, but that's the only better hand that we could possibly fold.

if i check shove it's for value.
he may feel all pot-committed etc and call the worse flushes/random trips in his range

river min c-raise ftw...

[!Luck]

b/c. 7.

[daviddem]

idk, pot commited with less than 1/3rd of his stack in the pot, facing aggression on all streets and a river check/raise?

If I had trip J's in this spot, I'd happily check the river behind. What reason would I have to bet?

What if you min raise and he shoves, then you are the pot committed one and have to make an unpleasant call, no?

[OngBonga]

River c/r with flush on paired board? Really? I'd snapmuck a jack if I was villain. But then again I wouldn't bet the jack. Looks to me like he's spewing with the ace, which I guess we make him fold by betting, so there's probably some credit in both c/c and b/f, but surely we never c/r this spot? Worse hands fold, better hands don't, ev negative.

[Icanhastreebet]

god you guys are fucking dumb, can you read the OP for once? Villain is 36/16 w/ aggro tendencies, he's NEVER going to fold the river w/ a J to a c/shove, this is the reason I stopped posting the BC. You also can't look at like "I'D FOLD A J SO VILLAIN MUST BE FOLDING A J". Fuck no he's not you, he's someone completely different, do you just assume this shit in every spot you play in poker cause it's such a huge leak. This villain probably b/cs QsX ffs.

[Icanhastreebet]

Also if you guys aren't c/shoving the river for value here ur probably gonna be stuck @ 10nl for the rest of your natural born lives.

[Icanhastreebet]

Hand 0: 45.800% 44.99% 00.81% 53146008 8218176.00 { 77, 44, AsQs, AJs, As9s, As8s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, KJs, QJs, J8s+, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+ }
Hand 1: 54.200% 53.40% 00.81% 81100392 8218176.00 { KsTs }

Just nail my point some more, Here I didn't even discount any sets or nut flushes(Both of which probably raise on an earlier street)

I also didn't give the villain worst flushes(A few combos he most certainly has)

I also didn't give him worst Jxs(More combos of these hands will make more trips then boats)

I also didn't include combos of QsX(Even if this doesn't call a c/shove it's probably going to bet cuz once again villain an aggrotard)

I also didn't include the eV when we get him to bet missed AsX, KsX when checked to on the river which makes checking a lot better(Once again since he's an aggrotard)


It's like you guys are so fucking scared of a boat that you wanna throw away soooooooo much value in huge pots. If c/shoving gets him to call w/ worst >50% of the time and checking gets him to bet worst a tonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnne more then c/shoving is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> c/c, b/f(lol?). Just because he can have a boat some non 0% of the time, and nut flushes(very very few combos) that doesn't mean you have to wet ur fucking pants and play the hand like a bitch. Count combos, don't be like wow I lose to nut flushes, boats, and beat trips. Also don't assume every god damn villain is playing hands similar to you. Use god damned reads, it's the most important thing in poker next to tilt control.

[OngBonga]

You have a way with words. Despite the tone, I actually took that in.

[supa]

Use god damned reads, it's the most important thing in poker next to tilt control.

Seriously dude, with as much respect as possible, what the fuck are you talking about? Daven gave us a read: he's a passive fucking donk. When we check how often is he gonna bet with anything that we beat? He calls our bet 100% of the time with worse and raises only with better. Maybe I'm missing something but given reads I can't see how check/shoving is ever +ev here.

[daviddem]

Call me a dumb f*ck all you want, I still find the play is a very long shot. You rely on opp taking two completely retarded actions in a row for all his chips. First checking is better than betting because if we check he'll senselessly bet his crap whereas if we bet he won't raise it!? Then when we check shove he'll surely have a fit and snap-mash the call button with trip J's on a flush-paired board.

Damn, I wish there were more like him at 5NL...

Also how do you have stuff like AJs, KJs, QJs in his river range? You also have a transcendental read that he doesn't raise these pre on the button? (It's not really the point because I do agree that we are ahead on the river. The point is that I don't agree that his range is static unless he's brain dead).

I could probably stretch it to b/c if we have a very strong read that he could spazz/bluff when we bet. At least this way he only has to make one major mistake.

[Icanhastreebet]

Seriously dude, with as much respect as possible, what the fuck are you talking about? Daven gave us a read: he's a passive fucking donk. When we check how often is he gonna bet with anything that we beat? He calls our bet 100% of the time with worse and raises only with better. Maybe I'm missing something but given reads I can't see how check/shoving is ever +ev here.

Once again read the OP, Daven said villain is an aggro tard, kthx bye this is the last post I'll make in this thread.

[Icanhastreebet]

Oh and to david w/e his name is, if you are discounting AJs, KJs, QJs, starting discount some nut flushes and sets by the river and u'll still end up w/ a +eV shove, that is all.