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50nl AA river spot

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  1. #1
    bikes's Avatar
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    Default 50nl AA river spot

    villian is an ftr reg. i think he's a winner. no history whatsoever.
    do i bet this river for pretty thin value, c/c but i have no idea if he'll bluff or turn hands into bluffs or do i c/f


    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -
    saw flop

    BB ($26.05)
    UTG ($22.40)
    MP ($167.80)
    CO ($51.20)
    Button ($216.30)
    Hero (SB) ($125)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
    UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.50, Button calls $2.50

    Flop: ($10.10) 4, Q, 10 (3 players)
    Hero bets $6.50, 1 fold, Button calls $6.50

    Turn: ($23.10) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $13.50, Button calls $13.50

    River: ($50.10) Q (2 players)
    Hero?

    ?wut
  2. #2
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    $8/fold
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by pocketfours View Post
    $8/fold
    These inducing sizings and then folding tilt me inside each time I read them.

    I'd rather $20/fold.

    I'd rather $8/shove with a boat here, just cause I expect to get raised by Qx and raised as a bluff, since I don't think ppl expect us to bet Qx like this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    You just want to be exploitable in every single spot don't you griffo?
  5. #5
    Renton's Avatar
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    Turn bet is too small when he has so many pair/gutters. River spot confuses me. I don't see what Qx he could possibly have that is too weak to iso a 40bb donk pre, but strong enough to overcall a 3 dollar raise.

    Needless to say I think its really hard for him to have a queen, but its also really hard for him to call a bet with worse, and he has little need to bluff when checked to. Given that I think I would take pocketfours's line. He can't really have any pure bluffs.

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