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100NL - Bottom set on mono flop, but seriously considering folding

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  1. #1

    Default 100NL - Bottom set on mono flop, but seriously considering folding

    MP is pretty aggressive, 28/23/10 3bet over 200 hands. BTN is pretty straight forward, 26/20/3 over 200 hands, but does have a flop aggression factor of 7.

    I don't think he ever gets to the flop with an overpair. So I figured he's either got a bigger set, made flush, or perhaps 2 overs with 1 heart.

    So far I've heard all sorts of different suggestions on this hand, from flatting and c/shoving a blank turn, to getting the money in now, to folding. The more I think about it myself, the more I think folding is the right play, but I'm really not sure.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (BB) ($325.45)
    UTG ($112.65)
    MP ($137.90)
    CO ($101.50)
    Button ($112.30)
    SB ($152.70)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2
    1 fold, MP bets $3.50, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50

    Flop: ($11) 8, 10, 2 (3 players)
    Hero bets $7, MP calls $7, Button raises to $24, Hero ?
  2. #2
    being that you said BTN has AF 7, and they're both very loose players esp for these stakes i think both their ranges are wide enough that you should never consider insta folding here, true you don't have that much invested yet and MP does have a 137bb stack...

    if you bet, MP raises, and BTN re-raises i'd argue more for folding just because it's ridiculously hard for BTN in that spot to have worse than top set or a made flush considering it's 3 ways and your hand could be very strong.

    i think calling is best, it keeps their draws in you just have to re-eval and on certain turns muck this thing.
  3. #3
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
    You've heard different suggestions because the difference in EV is small no matter how you choose to play it. To me it looks like a pretty standard fold.
  4. #4
    nutsinho's Avatar
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    Sep 2005
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    flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
    jesus dont call and c/r blank turn. anything else seems reasonable
    My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
  5. #5
    reraise would be fine to me. but not a shove.

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