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 No action with my big hands
Bleahh, I think that I am having my first experience with negative variance, and I am not a fan. It's synergizing with my regular spew to really kill me. The main problem I seem to have had over the last 3k-ish hands is that I am just not getting any action on my big hands. I am taking down a lot of small pots preflop, because I am being more aggressive.
Here are a couple of hands from my past two sessions, one to embarrass me and one that I actually want advice on.
First, the really bad one:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
MP1 ($2.08)
MP2 ($1.84)
CO ($2.03)
Button ($1)
Hero (SB) ($2.06)
BB ($2.44)
UTG ($1.38)
UTG+1 ($2.53)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K , A
5 folds, Button calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.10, 1 fold, Button calls $0.08
Well, the villain is 33/11 over 9 hands, so not much of a read. He limped on the BU with no previous callers, so I conservatively discount AQ+, JJ+ from his Limp/Call range. That leaves something like [22-TT, A2s-AJs, A6-AJ, 86s+, 54s+, 76+, K9+]
Flop: ($0.22) 10 , 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, Button calls $0.14
In retrospect, I don't know why I c-bet this flop. I've got nothing but a gut-shot, and it hits a big chunk of his range. He calling here with [TT, 99, A9-AJ, Ad2d-Ad8d,86, 76, 87, T8, 5d4d-KdQd, KQ, QJ, QT, T9, J9, KJ, KT, JT] (May have missed some stuff; I'm tired.)
So I have 41% equity versus that range.
Turn: ($0.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.36, Button raises to $0.72, Hero calls $0.36
I bet the King, which is stupid, because any Jack gives him the straight, and he's already got a lot of two pair hands, and he's got some good draws. Then he raises, confirming that my Top Pair is no good, but I call anyway. I think his range after the raise is [TT, 99, KQ, QJ, JT, T9] which all beat me.
River: ($1.94) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.04 (All-In), Hero calls $0.04
Total pot: $2.02 | Rake: $0.13
This was just terrible.
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Hero (UTG+1) ($1.97)
MP1 ($2.11)
MP2 ($2.07)
CO ($3.06)
Button ($2)
SB ($2.20)
BB ($2)
UTG ($2.44)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets $0.08, 2 folds, CO calls $0.08, Button calls $0.08, 2 folds
BU is 11/7 for 142, CO is 86/29 for 7.
BU range[22-JJ, AJ-AK, KQ]
CO range[22-QQ, Axs, J8+, Q8+, K8+, A6+, 54s+, 64s+, 65+, 86+]
Flop: ($0.27) A, 7, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.27, CO calls $0.27, 1 fold
I bet for value here, he only has 31 combinations that beat me out of
the hundreds in his range. I think he calls with [77-QQ, Ax, Jd8d+, Qd8d+. Kd8d+, 5d4d+, 6d4d+, 67, 78, 75]
Turn: ($0.81) K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.81, CO raises to $1.62, Hero calls $0.81 (All-In)
I bet again for value. I think that he is raising [77, TT-QQ, AT-AK, A7, 78, 67, 75] So, 23 combos beat me, and 41 don't. (That must be incorrect, because PokerStove gives me 59% equity.)
Anyway, oblivious to all of this analysis, which took me about 20 minutes, I call. I think that it still wound up being +EV, (correct me if it's not) but had I been more aware of how many connectors and one gaps hit the sevens, I may have played it differently.
River: ($4.05) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $4.05 | Rake: $0.27
In constructing this post, I've discovered that I have been spewing way more than I thought over the past few sessions. I figure that about 60% of my losses at showdowns were due to bad decisions. But also, I have definitely had some trouble landing big hands.
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