QQ 150BB deep Tough river spot 5NL

[!Luck]

So villain is 9/4 over tiny sample size of 23 hands. I suspect that on the flop he might call me with 77-JJ and sets. I think my turn bet is fine. Maybe I go a little bigger like 1.1. But due to us being deep i can't get stacks in without an over bet. I really thought i was going to get raised on the turn since I expect him to do this with his sets.

River completes a flush. But I am not too worried about it. But at the same time if I lead 1.5 is he really calling me with TT and if he raises all in I have to fold this. So my choice for river is b/c shove (but I doubt he is bluffing) Or I can shove and pray that he had a set or maybe QJ (1 combo). I just can't be confident about his range since the sample size is so small. But I feel he is nitty.

Also he waited a while to call me on the turn, don't know if that changes anything.

I hate situations like this cause I know I have to bet, I just struggle to figure out how much.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB ($12.50)
BB ($12.50)
UTG ($6.16)
Hero (MP) ($8.03)
CO ($7.50)
Button ($21.21)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 6, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO calls $1

River: ($3.17) 8 (2 players)
Hero ...

[Hoopy]

I'd bet/call $2.50 vs his continuing range {JJ, TT, 66, 33, QJs+, QJo+}, why are we folding to a shove if he has at best 3 combo's of flush's.

[rpm]

agree with the hoop. flushes are so few in this guys range, like perhaps AhJh, Ah3h, AhQh and AhKh. i think he certainly has JQ in his range as well as AdQd, AsQs (and if he doesn't have these hands, he doesn't have AhQh. aka one less flush), and sometimes some sets that he didn't know how to get value from because he's at 5nl. i'm bet/calling here.

[surviva316]

i don't understand the ranges in the OP. why do they keep getting wider with every street?

also, if your range for calling the flop is {66-JJ, 33} and you expect him to always raise with sets, why are you betting 1.00 on the turn?

really think about that second question...

[!Luck]

Surviva,

It as more that I couldn't construct a correct range based on his stats combined with action. His range in the end might be QJs, AQ (maybe) and sets. Or it might be way wider because it is a tiny sample size. That is why my post is barely coherent and I agree i can't ever fold the river giving the information.

!luck

[surviva316]

well regardless, i like a smaller turn bet size. you should at least try to guess at why

[!Luck]

I really don't like a smaller bet size on the turn. I should go bigger. I understand the concept of getting value out of TT or JT (if they are in his range). But in the end, I have hand I want a huge pot with. Some players might be too passive to re raise their two pairs or even their sets. Everything I always read talks about value betting like crazy at the micros. So if i was wrong, i should go bigger not smaller.

Again, I believe that unless I go sub 1/2 pot, I won't get lighter call downs than 80% pot bets. I can also appreciate that at higher levels people aggression goes up and I might get someone to spaz by betting small, i don't think this is the case here.

[tomato paste carnage]

The rivered heart is nearly irrelevant when you consider his calling range on the flop and turn. You're looking at AJ/KJ/JTh as hands that have you beat, as the hand was played. This has pretty much been said in the other posts, but I wanted to throw in my 1bb@2NL (u c wut i did thar?).