Value bet the river or no?

[kidsoldja]

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 820718
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $28.45
SB: $34.52
Hero (BB): $62.61
UTG: $25.00
MP: $51.79
CO: $27.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with
2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.80) (2 players)
Hero bets $5.64, CO calls $5.64

River: ($21.08) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 820718
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Villain is a winning player and has been playing pretty solid so far.
VPIP 19, PFR 13,5 after 104 hands

Pre flop: I don't think it makes a lot of sense to 3bet with AJ because he only plays solid starting hands and I'm gonna be out of position later.

Flop: Bingo.. So far he has lead out on every flop as the pre flop raiser.
Easy value check raise for me. I've been check raising a few times with air before and showed it once to create a loose image. I expect him to pay me off with Ax and flush draws, he might call once with medium pairs and fold to turn bets with those
Usually my check raise size is 3x the original bet but I made it slightly less to make it look weak

Turn: is pretty much a blank and doesn't hit any of his range. I think 60% pot is a good bet size. Now he calls I'm pretty sure he either has a big ace or a flush draw. Worse aces up are unlikely (he doesn't open raise aces with kickers under T) and sets are out of the equation because he raises those for value on the flop/turn.

River: I was planning to fire another 60% pot barrel but not on a card that completes a flush and a straight. I don't think he'll call a 3rd barrel with a naked ace unless it's AK or AQ so he either folds most Ax or shoves in case he hits his draw.

I checked river and it turns out he had AK which might have called $9ish but I'm not sure.
Is this usually a bad river check?

[bhaley66]

I think 60% pot is a good bet size.

Why 60%?

I don't see anything wrong with firing another on the river.

[NightGizmo]

I think you should raise more on the flop, to $5.50. Your raise was only a half-pot raise, $5.50 is more like 3/4 pot and gets more value.

I would also bet more on the turn, more like $7.50 or $8. You are way ahead of his calling range so try to extract max value.

On the river, I would have also checked but I'm not sure if that's right, especially since you hold the Ac which blocks a lot of possible flush draws he might hold.

[philly and the phanatics]

bet more on the turn for sure, at least 7-8 bucks, you have top two and he'll probably put a lot of money in with a AQ/AK maybe even AT. As played bet/fold the river for like 7-8 bucks

[surviva316]

the most important factor in how much we should raise flop/bet turn/bet river has yet to be mentioned in this thread.

also you mention at some point that only AK/AQ call a river shove here. even if that's true, that's 16 combos of hands, whereas it's hard to put him on 16+ combos that have us beat.

[Tasha]

I think the Turn was the key point. A bigger raise there would have been much better, at least pot size.
As for the River, if he had raised what would you do? By checking you are allowing him to take the initiative and that would have made your decision even harder.

[supa]

Way out of my level so I don't know what villain tendencies are like up there but...

What is villain telling us when he calls our c/r? It seems to me he's saying that he's coming along for the ride. A $7 flop raise and a pot sized turn bet has all but committed on the river. Stack that sucka.

[D_Fray]

def say raise. right there because you give him the change to bluff you out the hand, or you may call his bet thinking he don't have a flush, if he had it.

[surviva316]

the most important factor in how much we should raise flop/bet turn/bet river has yet to be mentioned in this thread.

this is still the case, and this is a really important concept for bet sizing in the micros

as for the river, obv you should not be c/c'ing here. i never expect villain to bet a wider range of beaten hands than he'll call with here. if we're not value shoving, we're checking with the intention of folding.

[Donachello]

You can definitely make your flop raise bigger. I doubt he ever folds an A to a raise like 4.85-5.35. The slightly larger flop raise sets you up for a slightly larger turn bet. If you still insist on betting 60% (sizing is kinda debatable I guess. I think 60% could be okay if you want to keep FDs in though I think you have to discount some FDs since you hold the Ac.) The 60% would be more like 7.25 instead of just under 6.

With that size of the pot it's become a pretty trivial river shove as his range is basically AT+ A5, A8, A9, QTcc, KQcc, sets. (PS. 19/13s have all kinds Ax hands under AT in their CO opening range just so you know.) I don't have stove on this comp but I'm pretty sure you're still ahead of that range.

[Carroters]

Raise flop harder, bet turn harder, bet river for value. c/c is a far worse line than b/f on this river where there is still plenty value and worse rarely bets.

[daven]

C-r bigger, also during the hand you should note that you have the flush ace so he can't be drawing to the nut flush draw.
also:

What is villain telling us when he calls our c/r? It seems to me he's saying that he's coming along for the ride. A $7 flop raise and a pot sized turn bet has all but committed on the river. Stack that sucka.

this is roughly the right idea, although you can bet a little under pot on the turn.
he has like AQ or something about always, and sometimes worse two pairs. If you bet-sized flop and turn properly then river is trivial. As played just 2/3 pot for value. Obviously call a raise

Given your reads, there are only three hands you are scared of = KcQc, KcTc, QcTc and he's 3-betting the flop often enough with these that you can further discount them below the 3-combos.

[OngBonga]

Not sure I like the call pre flop, I think I prefer to raise or fold here, but that's just me.

I'd have raised flop to $6, your raise fails to price out the flush draw. His range is reasonably wide, he's opened from the CO, he could have small clubs, big clubs, pockets, Ax, air... I don't feel like we've got much info beyond that until he calls the small flop raise and eliminates air from his range.

Turn, I'm betting big now, because I still don't know what he has. Bet pot. Flush draw folds, or perhaps raises, but only calls if he's a moron. Ace rag pulls faces and eventually folds in dramatic style like it's the sickest thing he's ever done. Ace king pulls faces and either calls or makes an actual sick fold.

If he's still in by the river if the hand goes like I want it to, then the pot is massive. I'm shoving, because I'm sure he hasn't got a flush, and my 2pr is probably good against weaker 2pr or AK, he's unlikely to have a set or he's an idiot for slow playing it on this flop.

But, in the manner it was played, he might have flush. So I'm cheking this river and calling pretty much any bet, an overbet is as likely a bluff as the nuts with no previous hand info, but I'm not betting out because a raise is likely to mean flush. I'd like to bet this river, but I dare not after playing the rest of the hand so badly.

[Imthenewfish]

Not sure I like the call pre flop, I think I prefer to raise or fold here, but that's just me.

wat.

[OngBonga]

Calling raises pf with AJo sucks, there's not much discussion there surely?

[daven]

Calling raises pf with AJo sucks, there's not much discussion there surely?

wat - how about you explain why. Cos obviously you can explain why. Otherwise there isn't much point to your comment....

[StarGrinder]

Good god pot the turn and shove the river.

[Imthenewfish]

Calling raises pf with AJo sucks, there's not much discussion there surely?

wat.

[Icanhastreebet]

Calling raises pf with AJo sucks, there's not much discussion there surely?

At first I was like but then I was like

lol are you leveling? I'm too lazy to explain why this is most certainly a profitable play(You still lose money here but you lose less then you would if you folded your BB outright)

[Icanhastreebet]

Oh and 5 flop, 7 turn, shove river.
If we didn't have the Ac I'd say something like 5.5 flop, 9 turn, shove river but since we have Ac we block lots of hands he'd be willing to 3b the flop w/ etc so it's better to go smaller

[OngBonga]

Friendly bunch here, and I can't wait to play some of you guys if you're all drooling at AJo.

Explain? OK, so it's come to me at the BB and I have AJo and a raise at the CO, with the rest folds. I'm heads up and out of pos with a slighty better than average hand. What's the raiser been doing before this hand? That's very important for my decision. If he's been raising late pos a lot, I'm raising my AJo to make him fold his suited connectors, Ax and small pairs. If he's been limping a lot of the time and raising occasionally, then I probably fold. If he's tight, I definitely fold. Whatever, I don't call, because then I'm seeing a flop against a hand I have little information about, and I'm acting first. By calling, we're saying "Hope I'm not dominated". By raising, we're finding out. By folding, we're avoiding seeing a flop with a weak hand against a raise.

Imthenewfish, think of something constructive to add. Icanhastreebet is getting somewhere, you think it's bad to fold the bb outright here? Fair enough, but I'm happy to dump a trouble hand like AJo for a raise that is bigger than x3 the blinds. That's what I call "a real raise", as opposed some dumbass just hitting the raise button without changing the numbers. I'll call any two on my bb to a min raise if it's low limits, or early tournament. But I'm not going to blindly call AJo to a real raise, I either want to know more info, or I have enough to make the fold. Calling is the worst play for me. But maybe that's why I'm stuck at 2nl.

Imthenewfish, I assume wat means what a twat. It's ironic, because that's exactly what I think of someone who cannot contribute to a discussion without thinking he's the bollocks. Do you drink 4% beer? It wouldn't surprise me. Carling?

Daven, top contribution also. How about you explain why someone who folds AJo pre flop on his bb is a twat. While you're at it, explain to me why the two people who decide that calling someone a twat for folding AJo pf on his bb are not themselves twats? Maybe we disagree on what twat means, I use the term to describe someone who has issues with their ego, someone who thinks that because they think they are right, then everyone they think is wrong is a twat.

" I'm too lazy to explain why this is most certainly a profitable play(You still lose money here but you lose less then you would if you folded your BB outright)"

Is there anyone not too lazy? I'd like to add that I'm new to this site and here to learn, not be insulted for saying what I think, not that insulting me will bother me. It will just make me realise who the twats actually are.

[deucesomething]

Wat.

[OngBonga]

So wat doesn't mean what a twat? Haha. What a twat.

OK, so the newbies aren't offending me for being a newbie, fair enough. Sorry.

[NightGizmo]

This would be a fold if the raise came from an earlier position. But your decision to call from the BB is based on the fact that the CO's raising range is very wide and you can flop a very strong hand against that range.

Put the CO on a range and play with the numbers in Pokerstove. As an example: if he plays 66+,ATs+,ATo+,KQs,KQo, you have ~43% equity. And that's a pretty tight CO range of only 10%, it's very easy to expand that range to include more hands the looser that player gets.

Raising is a horrible idea here. What is the likely outcome? He folds all of the hands that you either beat or flip with. He calls or raises with hands that have you dominated.

[OngBonga]

He calls or raises with hands that have you dominated.

And we found out pre, where it costs us the least. Pairs are only flips against AJo if we're seeing the river, we're well behind for a look at the flop unless we think we can push him off on a missed flop, but since he raised in position, we're likely checking a missed flop, aren't we? The only hands we want to be playing against really are ace rag and small s-connectors. Sure, they're in his range, but I'm not happy with the info I have pf. That's why I prefer to fold here, but a raise at least tells me if I'm dominated pre, and might get some pairs that might find a flop c-bet to fold pre. A call is basically hoping to hit the flop hard, which in this case, our hero did, but due to the lack of info pf, we can't eliminate those pesky s-connectors from his range, and as such, we fail to get maximum value for our top 2pr.

That's my assessment anyway. I think I just prefer to not play AJo in raised pots out of position, but if I do, I want to trim the villain's range down to as narrow a range as possible.

[Carroters]

Calling is likely +EV because the CO is opening a wide enough range such that we have a lot of equity against it and can therefore expect to have the best hand post flop and dominate a lot of his holdings; hence making a good bit of money frequently on certain boards. 3-betting AJo however, without a dynamic/read as to why it's better than flatting, is not so great since likely we will fold out a ton of the worse hands which we are dominating/ahead of and leave ourselves against a range that we are doing badly against should he continue to our 3-bet. If we think he folds a lot to 3 bets and therefore think that 3 betting as a bluff is profitable then we shouldn't usually waste a hand that is +EV to flat due to being way ahead of his opening range, but rather we should use hands which we cannot flat profitably but are at the top of our folding range such as, I dunno, A6s. This strategy allows us to play as many hands as possible whilst being +EV vs this villain. AJo is only a "trouble hand" if it doesn't have a ton of value in lots of post flop spiots vs the range it's against and is actually in a reverse implied odds situation where if it flops a pair it will often lose a ton to better and never really win much from worse. If villain opened utg and had a tight range then this could be the case and sure, fold and only 3 bet if you can profitably as a bluff. In this spot though, it's a pretty trivial call.

If someone folded AJ to me here in the bb I'd say "What a twat!"

[OngBonga]

If someone folded AJ to me here in the bb I'd sya "What a twat!"

Haha nice.

I'm gonna take your word for it, that call is +ev. I've got lots to learn, I'm making tons of mistakes, and perhaps being bullied off hands like AJo too easily is one of them. Hard to know what I'd really do in this situation if I were in it, because I have no reads, and I don't know what image our OP has at the table, plus I'd have 15 seconds to consider my move, as opposed twenty minutes or whatever. Like I say, if he's tight, I'm folding, but maybe I should think more carefully before 3betting this spot.

[Donachello]

Calling is likely +EV because the CO is opening a wide enough range such that we have a lot of equity against it and can therefore expect to have the best hand post flop and dominate a lot of his holdings; hence making a good bit of money frequently on certain boards. 3-betting AJo however, without a dynamic/read as to why it's better than flatting, is not so great since likely we will fold out a ton of the worse hands which we are dominating/ahead of and leave ourselves against a range that we are doing badly against should he continue to our 3-bet. If we think he folds a lot to 3 bets and therefore think that 3 betting as a bluff is profitable then we shouldn't usually waste a hand that is +EV to flat due to being way ahead of his opening range, but rather we should use hands which we cannot flat profitably but are at the top of our folding range such as, I dunno, A6s. This strategy allows us to play as many hands as possible whilst being +EV vs this villain. AJo is only a "trouble hand" if it doesn't have a ton of value in lots of post flop spiots vs the range it's against and is actually in a reverse implied odds situation where if it flops a pair it will often lose a ton to better and never really win much from worse. If villain opened utg and had a tight range then this could be the case and sure, fold and only 3 bet if you can profitably as a bluff. In this spot though, it's a pretty trivial call.

If someone folded AJ to me here in the bb I'd say "What a twat!"

QFT

I'd consider 3betting AJo as a bluff had he raised in earlier position and has a high fold to 3b. When he raises in the CO flatting AJo is certainly profitable for the reasons carrot explained. Like... you're ahead of a ton. Also, if you gin the shit out of the flop like this hand then even if you are dominated preflop then you can go for stacks.

[Tasha]

Daven, you certainly know to make a first impression.

As for folding preflop, perhaps one problem would be that you will set yourself up for a blind steal quite often?

Imthenewfish, I assume wat means what a twat. It's ironic, because that's exactly what I think of someone who cannot contribute to a discussion without thinking he's the bollocks. Do you drink 4% beer? It wouldn't surprise me. Carling?

LOL
However, for a twat to also be the bollocks would be a medical paradox.

[OngBonga]

LOL
However, for a twat to also be the bollocks would be a medical paradox.

It would be an internet sensation. I pay for a quick gross look.

Yeah, for sure you'd set yourself up for a blind steal, but if you pay attention to who's doing it, then you might be able to bite back with air and win a few of those blinds back. Dunno, I've never really given a toss about my blind in ring games at the micros, people are more than willing to pay over the odds in iffy situations time and again. If I suspect someone of stealing my blind, I just add 2c per blind to the next pot I'm in with them when I'm solid. Subtle as you like. They don't even know they've paid me back!

[Carroters]

Yah I mean don't get me wrong if the CO is actually really tight then sure Ill fold AJ here easily and I actually didnt notice these stats were over 6 max lol. I think it's still a call since I'd expect his opening range to include a bunch of worse aces and jacks even so. If he opening 13% anywhere then he prolly really tight in the first 2 and opening like 15% or more in the CO.

This range is a generic 15% btw, using stove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.618% 47.85% 03.77% 133547957 10519920.50 { AcJs }
Hand 1: 48.382% 44.61% 03.77% 124517754 10519920.50 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

Given we're prolly able to make less mistakes than this guy postflop etc, it's usually an easy call and I'd expect calling to be easily better than -1bb, which is obv the EV of folding when we look at the hand as a whole. Just to stress here though, if his ATS (attempt to steal) is pretty hlow from the CO then folding's certainly solid since his range could be tighter than this and having no initiative makes it hard to convert 40% equity or w/e into a winning play vs anyone that's of a similar or better skill level to us.

[FTR Bad Beat]

Don't check river bet half pot.

[c4ptain_obv]

Raise flop harder, bet turn harder, bet river for value. c/c is a far worse line than b/f on this river where there is still plenty value and worse rarely bets.

this

c/c is horrible imo

[offrdmom]

Good god pot the turn and shove the river.

4sure this is the only way to go!!!

[kidsoldja]

You can definitely make your flop raise bigger. I doubt he ever folds an A to a raise like 4.85-5.35. The slightly larger flop raise sets you up for a slightly larger turn bet. If you still insist on betting 60% (sizing is kinda debatable I guess. I think 60% could be okay if you want to keep FDs in though I think you have to discount some FDs since you hold the Ac.) The 60% would be more like 7.25 instead of just under 6.

With that size of the pot it's become a pretty trivial river shove as his range is basically AT+ A5, A8, A9, QTcc, KQcc, sets. (PS. 19/13s have all kinds Ax hands under AT in their CO opening range just so you know.) I don't have stove on this comp but I'm pretty sure you're still ahead of that range.

@ flop check raise $4,80 would be better indeed, that's what I usually raise on bluffs too. But if I make it +5$ I'm not balancing with my usual check raise sizing. Smaller raises make it look as if I'm check raise bluffing as cheap as possible and I could get paid by mediocre hands (in my opinion)

If he had made a 40% pot river bet I'd have check called but I wouldn't be too happy about it. If he had bet $13 ish I think I'd have folded because it doesn't made sense for a tight player to value bet worse hands than mine and I have represented a big ace myself so he can't expect to bluff very profitably

Edit:
I check raise these flops almost every time and rarely will I lead out into the raiser.
Do any of you think it makes more sense to lead out?

[Tasha]

Edit:
I check raise these flops almost every time and rarely will I lead out into the raiser.
Do any of you think it makes more sense to lead out?

Yes, because he might have checked too. If you think you are ahead then get more in.