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 25NL - AK on paired board
Villain is 22/11 over 9 hands. No reads on him other than that he bought in as a half stack.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($35.88)
UTG+1 ($52.88)
Hero ($25)
BTN ($40.33)
SB ($13.11)
BB ($25.35)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO  
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold
Flop:    ($2.25, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn:  ($2.25, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50
River:  ($5.25, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, SB goes all-in $10.61, $7.36 to Hero ($19.25)?
Preflop: I don't think he's a complete drooler, I imagine he's calling here mostly with pocket pairs and good broadways, maybe some suited/connected stuff.. Something like {22+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo, QJs, 76s+}
Flop: My reasoning behind checking this flop at the time was I thought I could easily get the money in over the turn and river, and if I checked the flop I was more likely to get two streets from his random pocket pairs.
Looking at it now, however, I see that I can't get it in over two streets without overbetting, so I'm not really sure if checking this flop or betting it is standard. I don't think I can get three streets out of, say, 55, but I'm not sure if I'm better to go flop + river and risk him folding 'cause of the ace or go turn + river and risk like a Q coming out on the turn and my turn bet looking like I hit it and he folds then.
In any event, I think he checks here with his entire range as I was the PFR, so his range going into the turn is still {22+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo, QJs, 76s+}
Turn: I think I should have made this bet bigger. I think he's calling here with his pairs, aces and nines, although I really have to start discounting the couple of 9's in his range when he checks to me twice. {ATs+, AJo+, 22+, 98s-T9s}
River: He checks the river and I think I can definitely get value out of enough worse aces and probably pocket pairs to make betting worthwhile, so I do. Rather than making the call, however, he shovels over, which confuses me no end.
I need less than 30% equity to call here. I'm really lost about what he's shoving, though. If he's gotten {AA, 99, 66, 55, T9s, 98s} to the river and is now shoveling for value, I only need him to also have five combos of bluffs to be profitable to call here. But I don't see what's in his range that calls the turn and then shoves as a bluff here, since it feels like he's pretty much always got showdown value.
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Originally Posted by Donachello
