Strong draw 3 handed- Flop push or flat?

[Imthenewfish]

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($2.39)
BB ($5.16)
Hero (UTG) ($2.03)
Button ($3.32)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, K
Hero bets $0.08, Button calls $0.08, 1 fold, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.25) 10, J, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.16, Button raises $0.50, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.34

Turn: ($1.75) 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $0.74, BB calls $0.74, Hero calls $0.74

River: ($3.97) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Total pot: $3.97

[Imthenewfish]

Gonna put my reads and analysis in this post -
BTN is running 52/2/1(agg fact.) over 49 hands, BB is running 75/13/2 (agg fact.),
I cbet this flop because a have a bunch of equity with a double belly buster, 2nd nut FD, and an overcard, and I'm wondering if I should push here or just call. I'm putting the BTN on a really strong range on the flop because of how passive he is, so I think that I should be playing implied odds and just call? I'm pretty sure that the bb will c/c a lot of hands on this flop, so I think I have implied odds against him if we both hit a draw and mine is better. I know pushing and flatting the flop will be +EV, but I don't really have any idea on how to calculate it, so I'm not really sure which is higher.

[spoonitnow]

I like 3-betting here on the flop since you're going to be closing the action by calling. If you weren't going to be closing the action, then I'd probably call to try to get the overcall. Basically people are going to stack off 3-way with all kinds of shit you're way ahead of but you might not get full value out of later in the hand etc.

[rpm]

yeah i like a 3bet/call on the flop here. your equity is quite strong versus all the pair/oesd, two pair hands which villains will stack off with. plus you'll be getting it in against weaker draws some of the time as well. your SPR after flop raise and BB smooth is roughly 1 so with your equity vs villain's calling ranges its hardly ever going to be a mistake to get it in here. plus the turn removes a decent portion of our equity 75% of the time when we dont bink a 7,Q or heart, making getting it on the flop seem > smoothing and seeing a turn

[Imthenewfish]

I think I usually play spots like these aggressively, except for when the bb c/c I didn't really know what to think about it

[Outlaw]

Shove flop.. how much equity ya need?

[Imthenewfish]

Shove flop.. how much equity ya need?

Well we need more equity than slightly above breakeven because even though I'll never really be behind getting it in I'm not sure if just drawing might have a higher EV

[littleogre]

I prefer to just shove in this spot. We guarantee that we get our money in with positive EQ. Calling is ok but not as good imo. Also if we just call i think they may get away on later streets.

[Tasha]

What about the turn? Would it not have been better to lead on the turn?

[amifat]

I like 3-betting here on the flop since you're going to be closing the action by calling. If you weren't going to be closing the action, then I'd probably call to try to get the overcall. Basically people are going to stack off 3-way with all kinds of shit you're way ahead of but you might not get full value out of later in the hand etc.

+1

[Outlaw]

Shove flop 100% of time imo.. we are at worst 50% equity.

Play around with FPP PRO.com -- Fold Equity Calculator, it'll teach you about how to play certain equity spots and whether shoving is a good idea or not.. the results might surprised you.

[Imthenewfish]

What about the turn? Would it not have been better to lead on the turn?

What the hell would that accomplish besides getting my money in with bad odds lol?? If you were going to lead the turn it would have to be a blocking bet, and I feel that blocking bets will often be raised forcing the bb to fold giving me even worse odds than if I had checked and BTN bet and bb called and I could draw 3 handed.

[Imthenewfish]

Shove flop 100% of time imo.. we are at worst 50% equity.

Play around with FPP PRO.com -- Fold Equity Calculator, it'll teach you about how to play certain equity spots and whether shoving is a good idea or not.. the results might surprised you.

OBV it's +EV to get it in on the flop, but the more implied odds you have here, the more +EV drawing is, and I didn't post this thread asking if pushing is +EV. I posted it because it seemed like a pretty complicated situation if you were to try to calculate/guesstimate what our EV is in BOTH situations. I'd really like it if anyone tried to find out about how profitable both plays are and then see what one we should use.

[littleogre]

OBV it's +EV to get it in on the flop, but the more implied odds you have here, the more +EV drawing is, and I didn't post this thread asking if pushing is +EV. I posted it because it seemed like a pretty complicated situation if you were to try to calculate/guesstimate what our EV is in BOTH situations. I'd really like it if anyone tried to find out about how profitable both plays are and then see what one we should use.

you're over thinking things. It's not a complicated situation at all. At 2nl it probably doesn't matter whether you call you shove the turn or shove the the flop. You have almost 0 fold eq either way I would rather get my money in on the flop as a favorite then on the turn as a dog. Don't know if you have ever read the phycology of poker but it talks about situations like this and why shoving is the correct move. Simply put if they call you will always be a fav against their calling range. If they are tight wads who only with say 2p+ you will get a lot of folds. At 2nl though you will constantly get it in as a fav though. Waiting till the turn accomplishes nothing at all.

[Outlaw]

I am not sure we have 0% fold equity. Even if they fold 5% of the time it makes it hugely profitable. That's what makes the flop semi-bluff so strong. I'd rather see you fold the flop than call one street and fold the turn.

[Imthenewfish]

I am not sure we have 0% fold equity. Even if they fold 5% of the time it makes it hugely profitable. That's what makes the flop semi-bluff so strong. I'd rather see you fold the flop than call one street and fold the turn.

well i was calling 0.34 into 1.39 so my immediate pot odds are so good that I don't need ANY implied odds to call the flop, so I don't see why you think calling the flop is unprofitable

[Outlaw]

I didn't say calling was unprofitable, just that it seems like such a crime to not get it in now with all that dead money.

[littleogre]

I am not sure we have 0% fold equity. Even if they fold 5% of the time it makes it hugely profitable. That's what makes the flop semi-bluff so strong. I'd rather see you fold the flop than call one street and fold the turn.

Well you may have a tiny amount of fold EQ but i doubt it is much. It's not really worth arguing though because even if they never fold a shove is +ev. If they happen to fold 1 in every 500 samples well thats just a bonus.

[Tasha]

I feel that blocking bets will often be raised forcing the bb to fold giving me even worse odds than if I had checked and BTN bet and bb called and I could draw 3 handed.

Others feel differently. Hero ended up putting the money in there anyway and the turn didn't give anyone a straight.

[Hoopy]

Get it in on the flop as so many cards can come on the turn which will reduce your implied odds + even against a range of {JJ,88,TT,Q9} we can shove not needing any fold equity.

[Imthenewfish]

Others feel differently. Hero ended up putting the money in there anyway and the turn didn't give anyone a straight.

Who feels differently? Noone else is talking about if we should be the turn or not, and villain actually bet a really small amount, maybe even a little smaller than I would have if I had made a blocking bet

[Tasha]

Others feel differently about blocking bets being raised.

[Imthenewfish]

Others feel differently about blocking bets being raised.

please explain?

[littleogre]

Others feel differently about blocking bets being raised.

Who are these others ?

[kfaess]

Do you think they will pay off when you call and a Q or 7 hits? Donks like these guys are also perpetually afraid of flushes. I bet they're going to fold some of the time when we make our hand so I'd rather just get my money in now as the favorite.

[Imthenewfish]

Do you think they will pay off when you call and a Q or 7 hits? Donks like these guys are also perpetually afraid of flushes. I bet they're going to fold some of the time when we make our hand so I'd rather just get my money in now as the favorite.

Funny, I thought donks like these guys weren't afraid of anything

[kfaess]

Funny, I thought donks like these guys weren't afraid of anything

you don't think they can find a fold when Ah/Th/any Q/any 7 hits?

[Imthenewfish]

I do think they can get away from there hand if a 7,9,or queen hits, but as for any heart besides that they aren't too concerened about the FD coming in

[spoonitnow]

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