AK on paired board

[abysil]

Villain is 78/44/57 over a small sample of 9 hands...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($1.92)
BB ($1.41)
Hero (UTG) ($2.36)
MP ($2.33)
Button ($1.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K
Hero bets $0.08, 1 fold, Button calls $0.08, SB calls $0.07, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.26) 8, 8, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, Button calls $0.20, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.66) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, Button raises to $0.90

Is this a safe fold? I was thinking he'd just call a flop bet with two overcards or any mid pocket pair... maybe trapping with 44, but I wasn't sure. Tried another cbet on the turn figuring the likelyhood of him having an 8 is lowered and my AK was probably good except for a pocket pair or a 4. Now what?

[JR9477]

Why do we bet flop?

[fatguy'06]

yeah I dont get the flop bet. He would likely call with 4x, 8x, or 22+, all of which beat you.

[abysil]

I bet the flop as a cbet figuring that he probably wouldn't have gotten a piece of the flop considering he called the preflop raise. I suppose at that point i didn't take into account how many hands i had seen him play recently though.

The same reasoning applied for the turn... if he didnt' hit the flop with two 8's on it then the turn wouldn't have helped.

[texa8]

yeah I dont get the flop bet. He would likely call with 4x, 8x, or 22+, all of which beat you.

i dont mind it...

i wouldnt expect a cbet to show immediate profit here a lot, but i do think it can set up profitable barreling opportunities... would you call 2 or 3 streets with 45s, 66, 77 or any floated broadway hands?

the turn is an easy fold though

[Imthenewfish]

Why do we bet flop?

What is our line of play if it's checked around and a queen or jack turns?

[drmcboy]

he's playing 80% so his range is wider than 4x, 8x and 22+!

flop bet is fine, but check turn and see what happens. if he has a hand he's always going to continue, if not you don't mind giving him a free card.

[abysil]

This is true, but keep in those stats are only over 9 hands i sat at the table with him for, so it is possible he had a good run of cards. I was sortof playing this hand disregarding the pt3 stats, which i usually do until around 15-20 hands played. It is always possible he folds the next 10 hands because they are garbage and that brings his vpip% down to a more normal number.

In any case this was my last hand of the day and i wasn't thinking straight and called his raise, he showed down K8. Woups.

Poker is learned by making mistakes though, so once in a while i don't mind making bad plays as long as I learn from it. Rather lose ~$2 at 2nl than 25 at 25nl for the same mistake.

[littleogre]

yeah I dont get the flop bet. He would likely call with 4x, 8x, or 22+, all of which beat you.

At 2nl a lot of villains will call you down with any ace on a paired board. Not saying you should bet as playing ace high on a paired board is something i have trouble with myself. Just saying you need to include more then just pairs in their calling range.

[Erpel]

Even if you include only pairs and 8x, 4x in his calling range that means he folds a vast majority of his range and it may be correct to bet the flop with air simply to pick up the dead money. If that is the case, since there are no draws (except gutshots) that you particularly need to price out I'd probably bet more like 1/2 pot on the flop as a cbet.

If on the other hand you think he calls a lot of worse aces and that becomes a significant part of his calling range then you are correct to bet a large amount as you are extracting value from the part of his range that you are ahead of (and likely have 6 outs against most of the rest of his range)

Alternate perspective is that because he has so many weaker/missed hands in his range and he's likely just bad you may check behind the AK and play it for showdown value against his likely missed hands, some of which he'll maybe bluff with on a later street where you will then need to decide if you can call with AK as a bluff catcher.

[Santo2True]

every now and then i run into this situation myself and find it hard to lay down AKo after 3betting preflop and seeing a board that just seems to completely miss a villains range. However, once I'm raised at 10nl I know it's time to fold. Typical opponents just don't bluff raise at these stakes with air. I know there are times they do, but in this situation for instance, they usually won't. I think calling the turn raise is ok some of the time because you still have outs against PP's. However, I'm assuming he shoved on the river with his remaining .47 or w/e he had left? Not much you can do at that point seeing as your odds to call now are too good so folding the turn is probably the best option this time.
Now knowing that he indeed did have the 8, calling preflop was just bad for him, I guess we can argue that he had position, but he will lose more times then not with that hand and we can exploit that later on.

and this:

Alternate perspective is that because he has so many weaker/missed hands in his range and he's likely just bad you may check behind the AK and play it for showdown value against his likely missed hands, some of which he'll maybe bluff with on a later street where you will then need to decide if you can call with AK as a bluff catcher.

[!Luck]

Didn't read the other replies:

I size my c bet solely based on flop texture, thus on dry paired boards I bet a bit less than half pot since many poeple would fold 22-77 here and a bunch of Broadway cards that don't include an Ace. I hate your turn bet and this is a fairly easy fold without some great read where you over shove.

[abysil]

Thanks for the input all.

I was mistaken in how i played the hand, as I just rewatched it. Since it was the last of the day and I was tired I shoved the turn as a spew and the river came as a 4. What a terrible play, not sure what I was thinking, as there wasn't really any value in the shove as he was pretty much committed to call the last 0.47 or whatever after raising to 0.90, and he probably wouldn't have made a raise like that without a hand that has showdown value to my AKo.

Woups. When you make plays like that you know it is time to take a break for the day. In any case, lesson learned and thanks for the advice.