TPGK in monotone flop

[Juked07]

Villain is 28/16/5 over 180 hands. I think he overvalues TP type hands, and he's pretty passive post flop overall. He c/c'ed 3 streets OOP earlier with a set (rivered boat) on a drawy board vs another opponent.

Edit: No specific notes on UTG but he's 26/20 overall, and opening 20% from early position (ie, not really showing positional awareness) over 150 ish hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($132.30)
SB ($252.85)
BB ($138.90)
UTG ($134.10)
MP ($58.30)
Hero (CO) ($125)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
UTG bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.60) A, 7, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4, 1 fold

Turn: ($13.60) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8

River: ($29.60) 5 (2 players)
SB checks...

Comments?

[shakesss]

I think its a fold preflop. Unless the raiser is a fish u do pretty badly against an UTG range. As played given history id check back.

[FlyingSaucy]

Agreed. A 3bet will also tell you whether an A on the flop is any good for you. As played the river is just check behind. You're not getting better A hands to fold. The ony thng you beat is a busted draw, which is unlikley given the utg raise. Also I don't like the turn bet. Either check behind theturn or make
it something respectable.

[Carroters]

Agreed. A 3bet will also tell you whether an A on the flop is any good for you. As played the river is just check behind. You're not getting better A hands to fold. The ony thng you beat is a busted draw, which is unlikley given the utg raise. Also I don't like the turn bet. Either check behind theturn or make
it something respectable.

3-betting this pre-flop vs this guy is terrible. He wont be folding any better hands to a 3-bet and will likely have too strong a range for a 3-bet for value to be profitable given we wont have enough dominated broadways that he'll continue with. Also, a 3-bet wont tell us whether or not we want to see an ace at all given his continuing range will contain stuff like 99+ AQ+; nor would this be a decent reason to 3-bet in a terrible spot even if it did.

You also seem to be implying that we're bluffing this turn, we're clearly betting for value vs a few worse aces and some flush draws or pair + fds that we're ahead of and should never expect any better hand to fold. $8 is a perfectly "repsectable" bet size given it serves our purpose of trying to manipulate his range so that he calls with worse hands on this somewhat scary board.

After he c/cs flop and turn, given your read, I'd check back the river here. He just has too many better made hands now when he calls a river bet since your line looks so strong imo.

[meeloche]

Fold pre as played b/f something he can call with A10.

[texa8]

how are people saying this a fold pre? villian is not positionally aware, our AJ is way ahead of the 20% hes opening with here... not to mention positional advantages

i check back the river... and FWIW i think the hand was played well on every street

[Carroters]

[ ] Villain with these stats is actually opening 20% utg - this is due to sample size.