10NL - AJo in SB vs BU open

[kiwiMark]

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Elenka921 ($10)
UTG+1 PIPA1974 ($5.30)
CO SmokemGood ($9.15)
BTN JonOzkar ($55)
SB Hero ($10.55)
BB ckwab ($10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB
3 folds, JonOzkar raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.10, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

River: ($4.90, 2 players)
Hero checks, JonOzkar bets $3.20, $3.2 to Hero ($8.15)?



Villain is 21/20 over 81 hands, with 83% aggression and 100% cbet, BSA of 29%.

Preflop: Villain's range for raising on the button is: {22+, A2s+, A8o+, K7s+, K9o+, Q8s+, Q9o+, J8s+, JTo, 54s+, 75s+}. I call out of the small blind, planning on check/raise bluffing a bunch of flops- checking that somebody's cbet stat is high and then calling with the intent of bluff c/r'ing SB vs BU is something I do quite often, and hopefully isn't spew.

Flop: I hit TPTK on a very very wet board, and check it to him believing he's going to cbet his entire range. It might be okay to raise here since a bunch of draws will probably call, but I have the ace of clubs, and since I was expecting him to be bluffing at this flop a bunch, it seems silly to fold out his bluffs when I have showdown value and he might keep bluffing, so I just flat.

Turn: On the turn he bets again, he's fairly aggressive and so I think he's double barrelling here with straight draws and flush draws, and betting for value with nines, jacks, overpairs and sets. {A9, AJ, Axhh, K9, KJ, KQ, Kxhh, Kxcc, Q8s, Q9, QJ, Qxcc, Qxhh, Jx, 54cc+, 54hh+, 87s-T9s, 75cc+, 75hh+, 99-JJ, QQ+}
Against this range I've got 32% equity, and I'm getting 2.5:1 on my call (meaning I'd need 28% equity), so I guess this is a call.

River: When he bets this big on the river I tend to weight his range towards value, so nines, straights, sets, overpairs and QJ, KJ, AJ. Against that range I've got 20% equity and need again about 30%, so it's a fold on the river.

[tomato paste carnage]

Folding is the correct play. EV calc ftw:

.20(11.35) + .80(-3.2) = EV

2.27 - 2.56 = -0.29

Also, this is the second thread in recent memory regarding AJ in the blinds. Seems to be a difficult spot for people.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

First off, you say you plan to c/r bluff a lot of flops because he cbets a lot. You're missing one piece of information that determines whether you should c/r bluff this flop or not. If he cbets a lot and folds to a c/r a lot, or will fold at one point if you c/r, then you should c/r bluff. If he cbets a lot and is a total station, you should c/r any J and any A for value and almost never bluff.

Now with what actually happened, you definitely played it well, and i'd just call the river. He seems like a bit of a clown from the stats so he could easily be doing something stupid. You're too strong to fold.

[Gobbatino]

I think the range you're giving him on the river is too thin due to his high aggression frequency. I'd say it's way way wider than that, including bluffs and a bunch of wierd Jx + Tx combos.

[kiwiMark]

@TPC: Yup, that's what I meant by "need about 30% [equity]".

@Numbr2intheWorld: Yeah point taken about if he's going to fold to c/r's, that makes sense. Cool to see you in the BC

@Gobbatino: Okay that probably makes sense, as I said his sizing made me lean more towards value, but then in my range I didn't put any bluffs at all in, which could well have given me the extra equity I need.

Thanks, guys.

[eragotte]

just since no1 mentioned it, your hand looks exactly like a draw and every draw missed meaning he is more likely to fire a third barrel if that is what he is up too. i could see myself firing a third barrel with air on a hand played this way. def call river

[Fnord]

Given the stakes, I don't hate a fold. In more aggressive games and against more aggressive opponents (particularly with history), you're too strong to give this up easy.