10nl FR facing a large bet from unknown on river

[dranger7070]

No stats on villain, my 4th or 5th hand at the table. My image is probably quite aggressive since I've opened literally every hand since I sat down. (Run good ftw) I've only made it to the flop once so far and villain in that hand c/f to my cbet of a similar size.

Snap checked flop, took a while to call c-bet.
Snapchecked turn, I took about 3-4 seconds to check
He thought for a second on the river then bet.

My question is, what's our range for calling here?

We need to be good 2.30/6.50 = 35% of the time for us to call profitably.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
Button ($6)
SB ($9.90)
BB ($10.80)
UTG ($10)
UTG+1 ($10.45)
MP1 ($17.25)
Hero (MP2) ($10.15)
CO ($9.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, 3 folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.85) 6, J, 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.55, BB calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.95) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.95) J (2 players)
BB bets $2.30, Hero???

Total pot: $1.95 | Rake: $0.05

[Gobbatino]

This is Jx, some weird two pair combos or air. Did villain play any hand while you've been on the table? If no reads at all, I fold our entire range pretty much, since I guess we have something like 88-TT or missed overs.

[surviva316]

don't know if unknowns at FR play like they do at 6m, but i call this with 76s/87s+ at 6m. be basically have the top of our range, and he's not repping a whole bunch of combos himself given timing tells, and regs and fish alike at 6m just snap jump on a weakness like checking back a turn (in this case they just happen to be right that we can't have anything great)

[rpm]

i'm terrible in these spots because without reads we are just taking a pure guess at how often villain has air. he does this for value with 33,66,77,J9s+,JTo+ (i assume thats the weakest Jx hands he calls with pre). after that i guess its how many bricked flush draws are in there, and however much equity your actual hand has vs that range. i cant see him overbetting here with 6x,7x,88-TT, as has been mentioned.

[dranger7070]

This is Jx, some weird two pair combos or air. Did villain play any hand while you've been on the table? If no reads at all, I fold our entire range pretty much, since I guess we have something like 88-TT or missed overs.

You would seriously fold 88-TT here?

[Donachello]

This is Jx, some weird two pair combos or air. Did villain play any hand while you've been on the table? If no reads at all, I fold our entire range pretty much, since I guess we have something like 88-TT or missed overs.

^this


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,650 games 0.016 secs 228,125 games/sec

Board: 6d Jd 3h 7s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.740% 18.33% 00.41% 669 15.00 { TT-88, ATs+, KQs, QJs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 81.260% 80.85% 00.41% 2951 15.00 { 77-66, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 76s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

I included 12 missed diamond draws and you'd need double that to even make this a close call. He's never bluffing here that much I don't think.

[Gobbatino]

You would seriously fold 88-TT here?

Yeah, with no other info to go on, I probably would. Depends on what you can get from his timing too, I guess. You'd have to be good here like 55%ish, which I can't say we are without any more reads. Too weak, maybe? Possibly, yeah.

When in doubt, fold. Or raise. :P Flip a coin!

[surviva316]

Yeah, with no other info to go on, I probably would. Depends on what you can get from his timing too, I guess. You'd have to be good here like 55%ish, which I can't say we are without any more reads. Too weak, maybe? Possibly, yeah.

When in doubt, fold. Or raise. :P Flip a coin!

not to pick on you, but a few corrections: dranger gave timing tells, which included the fact that villain "took a while" to call the cbet. this tends to polarize his range a little bit because it either means that he was considering folding, but because he was sick of dranger being a bullly he called, or that he was considering a range. so it makes it a bit less likely that he has a bare jack (meaning he's repping a thin range by the time the river comes).

also, we only need 35%ish to call.

also, as you move up the limits (though i doubt it matters that much at 10nl nit ring), you realize that when you're closing out the action on the river and deciding between a call or a fold is close, you should lean towards calling. it lets us see what he had, whereas if we fold, we would just have to give him the benefit of the doubt. also (and less importantly for the micros), dirties up our image a bit and makes villain less likely to pull bluffs in the future and just makes villain all in all a more straightforward opponent in the future.

all that being said, if villain is unlikely to bluff more than PSB here, than he's unlikely to bluff more than PSB here, so we shouldn't call. i don't know these games that well, so i wouldn't know.

[Donachello]

You would seriously fold 88-TT here?

TT-88 has 17% equity vs the range I used in stove. perhaps that range it too tight. shrug.

[surviva316]

interesting note that i decided to put in a separate post so that the other one didn't seem epically long:

since pretty much TT=65s (or at the very least, 88=65s), if we're calling with TT, then we should be calling with 65s. AND if it is the case that we have the proper 35% equity to call with 65s, then we're getting pretty close to 35% fold equity to bluff with air, assuming he isn't capable of b/c'ing with A3/44/AQ.

i mean it's a pretty sick bluff to run against a villain with no reads when we're repping ZILCH. (also, the stack sizes make it so that we'd have to risk 9.20 to win 4.25, unless we wanna CiB or power raise or something). but from a pure logic standpoint, if all the premises that i laid out are true, than if we can call with TT, then we can call with 65s and bluff with just about any air.

[rong]

This is an odd one, intuitively I want to call 67s & 88+, but once you break down villains range it is kinda hard to justify. Looking at the range above, perhaps you could add in suited aces preflop, therefore all Adxd & A6s & A3s. But not sure that would make a huge difference.

[Gobbatino]

If you can put enough bluffs in his range to call with 88+ then knock yourself out. There have to be quite a few in there to have 38% equity. If the villain's timing and hero's image make you think he's trying to bluff you enough then by all means.

[dranger7070]

Surviva, that's a pretty cool point you just laid out. So if we think we had enough (or more) equity to call with 56s, 88-TT, we could/should bluff/raise with pretty much all of our air? That's pretty sick.

Gobbatino, I our equity is shit in your example because you gave Hero's calling range as waaay too wide imo. Here's my results: I gave us 2 hands with Jx in them just in case since theres a non 0% chance we play it like this I suppose. I gave villain 15 combos of FDs (he probably has more than this), I left in all the Jx given above even though given timing tells its unlikely he has AJ/KJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,610 games 0.075 secs 21,466 games/sec

Board: 6d Jd 3h 7s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.876% 29.13% 00.75% 469 12.00 { TT-88, QJs, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo }
Hand 1: 70.124% 69.38% 00.75% 1117 12.00 { 77-66, 33, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KJs, KdTd, QJs, QdTd, JTs, Td9d, 9d8d, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }


---

Also surviva, couldn't the time he spent thinking on the flop be because he was considering raising?

I removed a couple of the Jx hands from his range and we get pretty close to the 35% needed to call. Ugh, its so sick how close this is. -.- So many assumptions have to be made to make it a call tho, so I think its a pretty safe fold here most of the time until Hero has more solid reads on villain.

[Donachello]

So many assumptions have to be made to make it a call tho, so I think its a pretty safe fold here most of the time until Hero has more solid reads on villain.

^this

lulz. was reading a different post right before this

[dranger7070]

Where do u get that he was 46/9, I never posted stats.

[surviva316]

yeah i played with stove and found it was tough to manipulate this so that it's a call (we'd have to remove A LOT of Jx combos based on a pretty unreliable tell, and he would have to be like autobluffing all his missed FD's). It's so close, though, that if the board were T-high or if it were like J65 2 J, i think it would be a call.

and let me clarify that what i said about bluff raising is ONLY true if TT=65s for us AND we can call with those hands AND if he never calls with 55- AND if we can give ourselves the correct price to where 35% FE is enough to make it a winning play. a lot of those premises we're pretty unsure of in this particular spot even if he were bluffing here enough to make it a call.

[Micro2Macro]

lol u r never good here

your calling range doesn't exist because any hand worth calling at this point you should have bet on the turn for value

[oskar]

Without having a note that he will reverse float/ overbet bluff rivers my calling range is AJ or better. If I'm multi-table auto piloting, I fold AA there pretty quickly and move on. JT-JK is kind of gross, but I think it's close.

Just keep in mind that there are just so few players who would ever overbet or shove anything as a bluff.

Take more notes. When I'm 4-8 tabling I take notes on almost every hand that goes to showdown whether I'm involved in it or not, and I'm not exaggerating. I just put the more important notes on top.
The reason I'm saying this is because if you had taken 100 notes in your life that said something like "c/c set, c turn, overbet FH otr when TP pairs"
and one note that said "cc air, c turn, overbet air otr" - then this wouldn't be a thread.

[Miffed22001]

rarely a bluff at $10nl - and even if it is it isnt something thats going to exploit you.
I dont think 88 is call but 99+ might be if you have enough of a read - but id fold all but Jx+ here and the only hands i dont shove are JT-KJ - but then id have bet turn with the whole of my range