AKo in SB versus 10NL reg

[kiwiMark]

Villain is 20/19 over a fair sample, 40% ATS and 75% F3B, seems like a fairly run-of-the-mill reg.

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
4 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO dragonz1974 ($4.90)
BTN Nu:Tone21 ($24.10)
SB Hero ($18.45)
BB eskalerareal ($14.85)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is SB
1 fold, Nu:Tone21 raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, Nu:Tone21 calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.10, Nu:Tone21 calls $2.10

Turn: ($6.70, 2 players)
Hero checks, Nu:Tone21 checks

River: ($6.70, 2 players)
Hero checks, Nu:Tone21 bets $4.10, $4.1 to Hero ($15.15)?


Preflop: I expect he's calling my 3bet with a slightly wider range and more implied-oddsy hands because we're deep and he's got position so something like: {22+, AQ+, AJs, KJs+, QJs}

Flop: The flop gives me a king, and I expect his calling range to a cbet here is {55, 88, KK, AA, AK, KJs+ and club draws}. Against this range I've only got like 34% equity so I can't make a value bet- but what am I 3betting for preflop if not for a Kxx flop? If we say he's also calling with TT-QQ because I cbet a large frequency or whatever, then I get 60% equity, but it seems weird. In any event, in the hand I did bet, and got called.

Turn: When the Qc peels off, I'm pretty much check/folding this turn- all of his flushdraws got there, and KQ now beats me. However it checks through.

River: On the river the only hand combination that I think calls me which I beat is KJs, so I check. He bets out 2/3 pot with a range I expect to me something like: {55, 88, KK, AA, AK, KQ, AJcc+, QJcc} which has me absolutely crushed so this seems like an easy fold.


Thoughts on my analysis? I suspect the problem lies with the preflop calling range I'm assigning him, so any thoughts on that would be great.

[spoonitnow]

Sets and KQ are less likely on the river because he only called the flop and checked through the turn on a super dangerous board, so you should account for that by discounting them a bit on the river.