Bleh, AK hits top two, fold river?

[eragotte]

Hand converter isn't working so I apologize for the uglyness but I wanted to post this.

Lots of history vs villain, he seems to always check the flop with his nutty hands. Example of a hand I played vs him recently, i open mp with AA, button calls, he calls from sb. flop 774 i cbet, button folds, he calls, turn is a 3 i check, river is a 10 he bets out pot i call he has 44. Ive seen him slowplay like this a lot.

Also seen him sb open aj and fire two small barrels with nothing then c/f river. he has also flatted my 4bet with tt then stacked off on a 9 high flop vs my AJ (a while ago so he may not remember)

i check flop because jj/tt folds and most other stuff has me beat other than AK or maybe AQ

so he insta bets pot out on the turn (seeming like f u for not letting me c/r) and insta fires river as well... can i put AQ in his range to make this a call?


GAME #2108185084: Texas Hold'em PL $0.25/$0.50 2010-02-07 19:45:24
Table Cascade
Seat 1: mbkuk21 ($82.14 in chips)
Seat 3: Arpo27 ($66.46 in chips)
Seat 5: randes ($8.57 in chips)
Seat 6: headfelt ($126.42 in chips)
Seat 8: analintruder50 ($60.24 in chips)
Seat 10: Mackers101 ($51.33 in chips) DEALER
mbkuk21: Post SB $0.25
Arpo27: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to headfelt [DA DK]
randes: Call $0.50
headfelt: Raise (NF) $2.25
analintruder50: Fold
Mackers101: Fold
mbkuk21: Raise (NF) $7.75
Arpo27: Fold
randes: Fold
headfelt: Call $5.50
*** FLOP *** [HK S6 CQ]
mbkuk21: Check
headfelt: Check
*** TURN *** [CA]
mbkuk21: Bet $16.50
headfelt: Call $16.50
*** RIVER *** [H7]
mbkuk21: Bet $49.50

[meeloche]

I don't know how he plays preflop but you should consider 4 b/c if the dynamic is right. As played I'd call he's never gonna expect you to have AK imo. Your hand looks a lot like Qx or 1010 JJ. He's always value shoving AQ as well

[griffey24]

Lots of history vs villain, he seems to always check the flop with his nutty hands. Example of a hand I played vs him recently, i open mp with AA, button calls, he calls from sb. flop 774 i cbet, button folds, he calls, turn is a 3 i check, river is a 10 he bets out pot i call he has 44. Ive seen him slowplay like this a lot.

Umm... bet turn.. bet river.. until given a reason otherwise. He's flatting in the blinds vs an UTG range, he has a ridiculous number of pairs here, and not as many SC's. Checking this turn is pretty bad imo.

As for the hand in question, yah if I played AK like this I'm def always calling river. He has 1 combo of each KK/AA, 3 QQ, and quite a few AQ that might play like this, and some AK chops too.

[Renton]

Umm... bet turn.. bet river.. until given a reason otherwise. He's flatting in the blinds vs an UTG range, he has a ridiculous number of pairs here, and not as many SC's. Checking this turn is pretty bad imo.

I don't really agree with this. Vs many you are value cutting yourself by the river with that line (i.e. any pocket pair that would call 3 streets would have 3bet pre). I think a flop check is pretty good.

As for this hand yeah 4bet pre, I don't mind post as long as you called.

[pocketfours]

These hands are beginners circle material eragotte.

[bode]

wtf at trying to justify a fold here.

[griffey24]

Umm... bet turn.. bet river.. until given a reason otherwise. He's flatting in the blinds vs an UTG range, he has a ridiculous number of pairs here, and not as many SC's. Checking this turn is pretty bad imo.

I don't really agree with this. Vs many you are value cutting yourself by the river with that line (i.e. any pocket pair that would call 3 streets would have 3bet pre).

I really don't agree with this. UTG opens, another person flats, and you think ppl are monkey squeezing hands like 88-JJ? What's their plan to a 4bet?

I think a lot of people are definitely flatting most pairs here, JJ squeezing is close based on UTG opener, and QQ+ will prob sq.

I'm going for 3 streets vs hands like 66-JJ all day here.

[shakesss]

def 4b'ing this spot given the history. I would def call river bet as played.

[Alexos]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.047 secs 400,212 games/sec

Board: Kh 6s Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.297% 25.37% 15.93% 4772 2996.00 { KK-QQ, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 58.703% 42.78% 15.93% 8046 2996.00 { AdKd }

[tstrout]

You definitely could have 4 bet preflop potentially getting it all in to negate being OOP for the rest of the hand, but I don't mind the smooth call. The fact that you called the big preflop reraise tells your opponent that you have a strong hand, so check-raising wasn't the play on that flop. Leading into him strong is the play. By leading into him, he will reraise you with AA, KK, or QQ which is what you want him to do: play straightforwardly. If he 3-bet you preflop with something like JJ, he'll fold. A strong flop bet OOP on that flop indicates a willingness to go to the felt with your hand, and that should result in a direct play from your opponent: raise or fold. Even a set of queens will still raise you instead of slowplay because you showed such strength.

[nutsinho]

looks like a fold to me, and not super close

[bode]

looks like a fold to me, and not super close

i know the H of 7's hits his range pretty hard, but wat?

seriously though, alexo's range seems pretty spot on and we're getting 2:1 on a call. really a fold?

[nutsinho]

id prob take out aq and add aa

[eragotte]

ya i dont feel like AQ is in his range hence fold is good... if AQ is in his range it is a call no matter what else he can have...

These hands are beginners circle material eragotte.

as for this i was told to stop posting 50nl in beginners circle despite feeling like i am a beginner...

[eragotte]

UTG opens, another person flats, and you think ppl are monkey squeezing hands like 88-JJ? What's their plan to a 4bet?

just a note, utg limped so it's not really a squeeze right? also this guy isn't someone who is squeezing light

[griffey24]

UTG opens, another person flats, and you think ppl are monkey squeezing hands like 88-JJ? What's their plan to a 4bet?

just a note, utg limped so it's not really a squeeze right? also this guy isn't someone who is squeezing light

Sorry my bad, I was commenting on the AA hand you mentioned and not this hand in question. Just noticed that you opened MP and not UTG in that hand.

[bode]

UTG opens, another person flats, and you think ppl are monkey squeezing hands like 88-JJ? What's their plan to a 4bet?

just a note, utg limped so it's not really a squeeze right? also this guy isn't someone who is squeezing light

he can be 3betting lighter though since you're iso'ing a limper, so AQ is def. in his range imo and could very easily take this line.

[eragotte]

think in his shoes, he is betting 100bb into a 100bb pot where he has to think there is a good chance i will call. He saw the AA hand too and knows Im not about to stack off with top pair vs his slowplaying ass. If hes betting this on the river (never evereverveveevrvevrvevrvereverr as a bluff) wtf is he expecting me to call with that he beats when he has AQ?

Basically: He cannot expect me to call with less than AQ here from what he has seen of me. He is never bluffing... I should fold.

[eragotte]

I did call btw, if I was good enough to fold there I wouldn't be playing 50NL.

Anyways if anyone wants to chat about the AA hand mentioned earlier here is the hand history. My reason for checking the turn is I value own myself vs 7x and 44, I only get two streets out of maybe JJ and 1010-88 anyways so might as well pot control and make the second street the river, worse folds and 65 is his only real connecting hand that continues the flop. Random 43s and shit all fold to the turn if I barrell. On the river if he checks I bet, with him betting I think I can profitably call since my hand does not look nearly as good as AA.

GAME #2108536652: Texas Hold'em PL $0.50/$1 2010-02-07 22:42:23
Table Logan City
Seat 1: 0reptile0 ($185.21 in chips)
Seat 3: Sholukh ($87.35 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: mbkuk21 ($112.90 in chips)
Seat 6: Dodenow ($162.07 in chips)
Seat 8: NaktissBLR ($157.53 in chips)
Seat 10: headfelt ($147.90 in chips)
mbkuk21: Post SB $0.50
Dodenow: Post BB $1.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to headfelt [CA DA]
NaktissBLR: Fold
headfelt: Raise (NF) $3.50
0reptile0: Call $3.50
Sholukh: Fold
mbkuk21: Call $3.00
Dodenow: Call $2.50
*** FLOP *** [S7 H7 D4]
mbkuk21: Check
Dodenow: Check
headfelt: Bet $9.00
0reptile0: Fold
mbkuk21: Call $9.00
Dodenow: Fold
*** TURN *** [D3]
mbkuk21: Check
headfelt: Check
*** RIVER *** [S2]
mbkuk21: Bet $20.00
headfelt: Call $20.00
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $69.00 Rake $3.00
mbkuk21: Shows [S4 C4]
mbkuk21: wins $69.00

[IowaSkinsFan]

Yeah I absolutely agree that its a fold.

Every part of this hand seems like it was played well.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

i do agree that there are factors here that make this less likely to be AQ. I just think that at 50nl we just cant assign anyone to super thin ranges especially someone who plays like a donk.

[shakesss]

I think analyzing this hand without any stats on this guy is much harder. His 3b percentage? flop check raise as pfr? wtsd? These numbers would really make it much easier to come to a decision. If we are beat in this spot can we not chalk it up as a cooler? its a 3bet pot and we have top two and we have underrepped our hand strength.

[pocketfours]

These hands are beginners circle material eragotte.

Yeah I take this back. You managed to tilt me with your other thread and I didn't really read this hand I just read the replies.

Good stuff ITT. A fold looks like a really sweet play.

[jackvance]

I think analyzing this hand without any stats on this guy is much harder. His 3b percentage? flop check raise as pfr? wtsd? These numbers would really make it much easier to come to a decision. If we are beat in this spot can we not chalk it up as a cooler? its a 3bet pot and we have top two and we have underrepped our hand strength.

I don't see how it is relevant in this situation that we have underrepped our hand. Villain is instantly hammering pot-sized bets on turn and river so he already made his mind up on the flop how to play this hand, ie most likely KK/QQ. Other hands like AA/AK/AQ/72o I would expect him to bet the flop, or atleast take some time on turn and river..

[shakesss]

I think analyzing this hand without any stats on this guy is much harder. His 3b percentage? flop check raise as pfr? wtsd? These numbers would really make it much easier to come to a decision. If we are beat in this spot can we not chalk it up as a cooler? its a 3bet pot and we have top two and we have underrepped our hand strength.

I don't see how it is relevant in this situation that we have underrepped our hand. Villain is instantly hammering pot-sized bets on turn and river so he already made his mind up on the flop how to play this hand, ie most likely KK/QQ. Other hands like AA/AK/AQ/72o I would expect him to bet the flop, or atleast take some time on turn and river..

So far in the hand, AK was flatted preflop and checked on a king high board, and then flatted with top two on the turn. Our plan might be to slow play our hand to extract value on later streets. In his mind it must be quite hard to put us on something that strong. The hands that would check the flop and call the turn in his mind are either monsters or hands that are unsure about where they are in the hand. If he thinks we have a big hand and he is shoveling chips in then he probably thinks he will get paid off. If he thinks we are unsure of our hand he might be betting a hand that is weaker than ours, AQ for example, for value, or he might be turning a weaker part of his range into a bluff. What i meant to say was that by underrepping the strength of our hand he might think he can get us to fold and play some of his range faster to get folds.

The tough part on putting this guy on a range is that we have no info about his 3betting stats. That would make the picture a lot clearer. If he is a nitty 3bettor than folding could be an option. If he is wider with his 3betting range its a call. In a vacuum with no reads i might just go and pay this off. The reason being that since we have underrepped our hand, he might think we are weak, and might try to get us off our hand.

[eragotte]

I just think that at 50nl we just cant assign anyone to super thin ranges especially someone who plays like a donk.

he plays like a donk AND WINS, no one ever assigns him the super thin nutty range he is always on and then pays him off

If he thinks we are unsure of our hand he might be betting a hand that is weaker than ours, AQ for example, for value, or he might be turning a weaker part of his range into a bluff.

Ive seen him bluff once with A high for $1.50 and he's been sitting on atleast half my tables since I moved to iPoker... if he bets the river for value with AQ how the fuck is he expecting AJ or KQ to call (maybe if he bets 20$ then he could have AQ)? As for stats I dont use HUD, I cut to 4 tables and concentrate on reads and it seems to work better for me. I also do this because Id prefer to be a live player one day and I wont have HUD going then.

[baudib]

This seems precisely the way a 50 NL player who "checks nutty hands on the flop" would play QQ in this spot, especially when he puts hero on Ax and hopefully AK after the turn.

[eragotte]

^ ya he had QQ obv