bet? what? when?

[rong]

Villains stats 23/12/131
I'm lost on a range as CO could be raising quite wide here, nut 6xbb is big for a standard steel, so I'm thinking maybe TT+, AJ+ & KQ.

I think I should have either reraised pre or b/f or c/r/f the flop. After villain checks the turn, I'm pretty sure I'm ahead, and the river heart was a mistake to raise in hindsight as nothing in villains range that I beat is going to call me, so I should have c/c I think. But anyway, your opinions please.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10.55)
MP1 ($12.48)
MP2 ($3.10)
CO ($1.88)
Button ($4.55)
SB ($6.30)
Hero (BB) ($3.57)
UTG ($4.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, 1 fold, CO bets $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.67) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.27) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($1.27) (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, CO raises to $1.28 (All-In), Hero calls $0.88

Total pot: $3.83 | Rake: $0.15

[XTR1000]

Regarding his range, start with his opening range preflop, then discount all hands you think he´d check back the flop with, of those you discount those he´d be betting the turn with and then you´ll be surprised how narrow his range is by the river.

[XTR1000]

edit: Assuming he´s not incredibly positionally awar Id start with something in the neighbourhood of {22+,A8s+,KJs+,76s-JTs,ATo+,KQo}

[rong]

OK, will have a go.
I see him betting all of his opening range on the flop when checked to, just as a cbet (30% cbet stat). But lets discount AJ as that is the least likely to bet.

Range entering turn: AQ+, TT+, AK

What of those hands checks the turn: AK, TT, JJ.

At this point the hands that beat me are AK holding an H. WHich gives 7 out of 23 available hands (?).

That said, the 4 TT hands may call a river bet as well as the hands that beat me.

So if I check, out of the 23 available hands, 4 call and lose, 7 raise and win and 12 fold but would have lost anyway.

Is this right so far? And what the hell does this mean? What was the best course of action? Throw me a bone here, I'm trying.

[XTR1000]

I dont know how "I see him betting all of his opening range on the flop when checked to, just as a cbet (30% cbet stat). But lets discount AJ as that is the least likely to bet" can possibly make any sense. Also, whats up with 44, 77, 65, KQ and smaller flushdraws?

[rong]

I narrowed his preflop range much further due to the 6bb raise which based on how I've seen him play I don't think is a standard steel. I think he has a reasoonable hand here, hence the range estimate of AJ+, TT+ & KQ.

As for the first statement you quoted, I'm not entirely sure how it makes sense either, but all the other hands are a pair or 2 overs, which I would much rather be betting with, as you are more likely to have outs, which is why I discounted AJ but kept in all the rest.

[rong]

And the 30% cbet stat helped with this thought process, as its heads up & I think he has a better than average preflop hand so I think he will be inclined to cbet the majority of it. Still all just subjective bullshit though.

[Hoopy]

Firstly it's best to buy in for at least 100BB + have auto rebuy on - gives you room to maneuver and allows more value extraction from fish. Try buying in for 200BB sometimes as well as it can be very profitable.

As to the hand why don't we just 3 bet and get it in pre flop? Villein is short and unlikely to fold most of his range to a shove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.744% 57.04% 00.70% 685695516 8405130.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 42.256% 41.56% 00.70% 499531632 8405130.00 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

[Donachello]

This whole hand is just atrocious. First of all why are we not 3betting JJ especially OOP? Honestly you're way better off getting it in preflop vs this shorty than trying to play JJ OOP. As played... the flop bet by him is horribly sized and could often be seen as weak but seeing as how you didn't 3bet I dunno if I'd raise there. When he checks the turn you should be happy to just c/f the river since you have already crapped all over this hand.

[daviddem]

3-bet him all-in preflop. You're well ahead of his CO raising range (I think the range you give him in your OP is too tight). These guys often raise bigger with small PP or hands they would rather take right there. As played, I would donk pot bet the flop. As played on the flop (you check to him), I think I shove over his flop bet. Why call? You have very little chances to improve, less than he does with his range. If you just call, you basically give him the free card that he possibly is asking for with his small bet. Folding seems way too weak-tight here. He only c-bets 30% of the time, which pretty much means he plays fit or fold. But he might well be on a flush draw or overcards or a smaller pocket pair that he does not want to give up yet. Besides you checked to him so he may well be just taking a stab with a small pocket pair or even air.

And yes, keep your stack topped up (you have position on stacks bigger than yours).

[Outlaw]

Fine as played, the river is an easy fold.

[spoonitnow]

You're well ahead of his CO raising range

This isn't sufficient reason to 3-bet preflop.

[acoss3006]

You're well ahead of his CO raising range

This isn't sufficient reason to 3-bet preflop.

Yah your ahead of the raising range, but you also need to be ahead of his 3bet calling range.. ie there are enough worse hands in that range that will call to make the 3bet +EV.

[XTR1000]

You're well ahead of his CO raising range

This isn't sufficient reason to 3-bet preflop.

Yah your ahead of the raising range, but you also need to be ahead of his 3bet calling range.. ie there are enough worse hands in that range that will call to make the 3bet +EV.

actually your equity when called plus your 3bets folding equity must exceed your expectation when you just flat in order to make 3bet > flat > fold

hooray nitpicking

[acoss3006]

You're well ahead of his CO raising range

This isn't sufficient reason to 3-bet preflop.

Yah your ahead of the raising range, but you also need to be ahead of his 3bet calling range.. ie there are enough worse hands in that range that will call to make the 3bet +EV.

actually your equity when called plus your 3bets folding equity must exceed your expectation when you just flat in order to make 3bet > flat > fold

hooray nitpicking

I love your avatar.. so nitpick whenever you like.