Pocket 9s MP1 - FR 2NL

[Shifter]

Villain is 29/11 over 35 hands with 57 Aggression Frequency. Only a few of his hands went to showdown, but all of them were within the range of TT+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KJo+,QJo

Preflop - My bet was a little on the small size, but he simply called. At this point, I had him on something like {99-22,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo}. Any higher pairs or AK/KQ he would have raised up.

Flop - Flopped a set and so raised him, thinking that he hadn't hit his range and was value betting. I was sure he'd up the aggression factor if he'd flopped a set.

Turn - Again, it didn't look like he'd hit his range so I raised it up. He re-raised and I called. Not entirely sure what was happening here. C/R? I don't think his earlier play indicated a powerful hand. If the range I have him on is correct, that puts my equity at 97% and of course I'm not going to fold.

River - An A isn't great - he shoves. I don't know what to think. Is this a bluff on his part or has he been slowplaying pocket As (highly doubtful)? Don't know, but my money would be on the former.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($1.14)
CO ($0.66)
Button ($2.52)
SB ($2.05)
BB ($2.67)
UTG ($1.73)
UTG+1 ($2.12)
Hero (MP1) ($1.68)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $0.06, MP2 calls $0.06, 3 folds, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) 8, 9, 5 (3 players)
BB bets $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, MP2 calls $0.18, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.73) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.86, Hero calls $0.46

River: ($2.45) A (2 players)
BB bets $1.57 (All-In), Hero ?


I don't think my preflop bet was that bad, but 4xBB would have been more appropriate.

Any comments and suggestions welcome.

[mz102489]

Turn: ($0.73) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, BB raises to $0.86,

Now get it in

[daviddem]

He could also have flopped a straight if he plays 67 like this. Then he slowplays it. I also don't see why you rule out that he is slowplaying a set if he could be playing AA like this. Then if he slowplays a single AA or KK pair, he could aslo well be slowplaying two pairs (89 in the hole). If he slowplays AA like this all the way against two opponents, he is totally insane! (but everything happens at 2NL) Even slowplaying the straight is not without risk.

Be careful not to base your raise size on the size of his bet. Rather, base it on the size of the total pot (including his bet). By raising to only $0.18 on the flop, you are offering him 21.8% pot odds! He only has to pay $0.12 for a chance to win $0.43.

On the turn after his raise, you have to start to wonder what you are up against. I'd say big overpair, two pairs, set, straight but the weaker the hand, the more dangerous it is to slowplay, so I would discount the big pairs and two pairs quite a bit. Could also be a stone cold bluff I suppose. Some guys with AK can't lay it down and will try anything. I probably still shove hoping to be shown an underset or a silly bluff, but I am still worried about the straight.

As played, on the same grounds, I also call the river.

[bigspenda73]

so you don't even have 67 his range and you put question marks after the river card?

[Shifter]

I didn't include 67 because of his small bet/call on the flop. Analysing this hand afterwards, it's obvious I should have. It's a stupid mistake to overlook something that could potentially be so important.
I hadn't seen any evidence of this villain slowplaying cards previously. I'm not sure I would have done anything differently if I'd have added 67 to his range.
I probably should have got it all in on the turn, though the danger of that straight would worry me too. Hmm.

Thanks for the replies, guys.

[oskar]

You're making way too many assumptions with having close to zero information on the player.

Just shove the turn. If he c/r/folds, it's unlikely he was going to bluff the river anyway. If he c/minraises a draw, he's calling on the turn. And sometimes a scarecard might come and make him c/f an overpair.

Because you have so little information, you have to put way more hands in his range, but weight them... let's say he could have TT-KK, but you think he might raise KK most of the time (2 instead of 6 combos), and only shove the river with TT-QQ 30% of the time (6 instead of 18 combos).

Then you should determine how much equity you actually need to make the call.
You would call ~1.5 to win ~4, so you need to have 1.5/5.5 * 100 % equity.
But I don't even do that while I'm playing. 1.5 to 4 is all you need to know. convert it to 1:x if you're more comfortable with that.

Then take the range that beats you, which is AA(3), 67(16) = 19
When I'm in the hand I immediately round that up to 20.
Now you should already know how many combos of hands that you beat he must have in his range for a call to be profitable.


EZ game.

[daviddem]

Pot odds on the river are 16% because you have only $0.58 left in your stack (another reason to shove the turn). On the river, you have to call $0.58 for a chance to win $3.03, so pot odds = 0.58/3.61 = 16%

Excluding all pairs and two pair hands (it's too absurd to slowplay them that way), that leaves him with a river shoving range of {88, 55, 76s, 76o} against which you have 27% equity. So it's a call. Even if you included AA in his range, you still have 24% equity, still a call. And that's not even counting that he *might* be bluffing with air.

Estimate that while playing: you beat 88 (3 combos), 55 (3 combos) and you are beat by 76 (16 combos), so you win 6 out of 22 times, which you can roughly estimate to 5 out of 20, that is 25%.

Do we get a spoiler or did you fold?

Note also that you should keep your stack full as you have position on a stack bigger than yours, and the stacks to your left are smaller than yours anyway.

[Stacks]

You are forgetting to change your range as the hand progresses. You stated in your preflop analysis you believed his range was something like {99-22,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,AJo-ATo,KJo-KTo}. Which I guess isn't a bad range to assign to his overcalling range. However, you state on the turn that if your range is correct that you have 97% equity, and therefore shouldn't fold. Do you really believe he is playing every single hand in his preflop calling range in the same manner? You think he's donk/calling the flop with hands like AT, 22, etc? I don't think so.

Ranges aren't static, and therefore you must change his range as his actions occur.

[oskar]

Pot odds on the river are 16% because you have only $0.58 left in your stack

Oh, I didn't see that.

[Shifter]

I definitely need to work on my ranges, yup. Got a fair few hands from playing today that I've marked for review and tomorrow I plan on going back and analysing each one.

On this hand, I ended up calling the river and funnily enough, villain was holding 67s. So he got his straight, even though he played it pretty damn weirdly. I suppose he was simply aiming to slowplay and get as much money as possible and on this occasion it worked.

Again, thanks for all the input. Got a lot to work through and improve on!

[daviddem]

Yes, this shows that even with a straight on a board with no flush draw, he was still taking serious chances with his slowplay. On the flop he has no way of knowing the someone has a set, so although he is always taking a slight chance by giving a free card, the play can't be called horrible I think. Actually on boards like these that are very dry once you have excluded the nuts that you are holding, it may well be the only way to get paid with your straight a decent portion of the time.

On the turn, if you look at your own line through your opponent's eyes, it really looks like you have a set because after your flop raise was called by two opponent's, you bet again on the turn. You probably would not do that with just an overpair, because you would be seriously worried about being up against sets or the straight following the flop action. So on the turn he may have guessed you had a set, and his minraise is enough to deny you the correct odds to call profitably (7 cards could pair the board on the river giving you a full house or 4 of a kind, so you have about 14% chance to hit), and he is laying 19% pot odds with his min raise, so you cannot call profitably. He may have not done it on purpose though, because if he had known you had a set he would probably have raised bigger.

Funny to say, just a very slightly bigger preflop raise might have convinced him not to call your raise OOP with his 67s. Not for sure though so don't beat yourself over it.