hmmm semi-bluffing and interesting turn falls

[eragotte]

villain is tight, aggressive, but cautious to play big pots, on the flop i check/raise rather than bet out to 1. hopefully get more if i hit my flush 2. fold out low pockets and J10 and worse 3. dont let him float 4. if he has nothing i get an extra bet... because of his cautious play i think he reraises a set here, so his flop range to me is Ahxh QJ KJ AJ... he folds AK/AQ here and i think he raises QQ/KK/AA to my check raises although he may flat them.

so the A scares a lot of his range however AJ is prolly very common for him to have and the Ahxh, bet out or c/call... i like betting out but if he ships it its almost certainly Ahxh/AJ/AA and i have to fold... is it better to check and reevaluate?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($26.35)
Button ($25.20)
SB ($26.95)
Hero (BB) ($29.85)
UTG ($30.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) J, 3, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4, MP calls $2.50

Turn: ($9.60) A (2 players)

Total pot: $9.60

[daviddem]

I think checking is fine. You have nothing so far and the pot is already big. Since you check raised the flop, he should be wary of you doing it again on the turn, so I think he will only bet with premium. If the ace scares him, he should check back by fear of being check raised again (you said he is cautious, right?). If he checks back, lead most rivers. If he bets big, you probably have to fold based on pot odds because he is not going away. If he bets small enough then call and try to make your flush (you can't count kings and queens as clean outs here anymore).

[Micro2Macro]

if you're going to c/r the flop decide ahead of time what turns you are going to fire.

this is one of those turns.

there's actually a lot of ways you could play this hand depending on your opponents postflop tendencies.

[Fnord]

I like a bet here against a weak player who's going to give up based on his own hand strength here quite often. Against strong players, well that's another forum...

[eragotte]

alright, i like to bet here as well, what sizing do you think is good?

i bet out 5$, knowing this player it is enough to fold QJ JK J10 and enough to make him think hard about kk/qq and probably fold if he ever has it. i figured less than 5 looks weak and more than 5 is spending money i dont have to...

[XTR1000]

Id bet a bit more 7.5ish to max FE on turn and have a better SPR on heart/T-rivers. Fwiw, I dont think we could profitably triple if we miss, so Id rather max turn FE than to hope for FE on the river.

[eragotte]

ya if he calls i have to c/f rivers for sure, im not the spewtard omg can never give up on a big pot that i once was... if he flat calls it must be Ahxh or ive been reading him all wrong, AJ raises i think... come to think of it most of his continuing range probably raises

can you explain how 7.5 maximizes fold equity? Im not sure i 100% understand that concept

[XTR1000]

I have no idea what amount actually gives max FE as I have no idea how the villian interprets our betsizes, I pulled that number out of my a**. I was just going to say that Id rather bet 7.5 than 5.

[Fnord]

more than 5 is spending money i dont have to...

Huh?

[Donachello]

I think there are arguments both for betting the turn and for checking here. As usual it depends entirely on his range. If AT, AJ, AQ, AK make up major portions of it I think you can expect a raise a good majority of the time. If you think FDs are a big portion then he's probably floating or folding but not going to be raising here. If he does have an Axhxh type hand then you definitely should be c/f the turn as almost no bet size will get him off that hand at this point. I agree though that if you do bet out your bet sizing should be more like 6.50-7.50 range if you are trying to rep the A. And if you're not trying to rep the A here then you might as well just check and either call(spew) or fold.

[Micro2Macro]

$5 on the turn is way too small

rep a big hand, not a cheap bluff.

would you be betting only 1/2 pot with the nuts here? I doubt it.

[eragotte]

Huh?

he is passive and the difference between a 5$ bet from me or 7$ prolly means little to him although m2m is right that id bet bigger with the nuts (this said he doesnt know that)

basically vs this villain i think 5 is enough to not look super weak so he folds his junk with min loss if he has a good hand

[eragotte]

anyways i bet turn 5 he clicks it back, i call, river is a K it goes check check and he has AJ

[Micro2Macro]

Huh?

he is passive and the difference between a 5$ bet from me or 7$ prolly means little to him although m2m is right that id bet bigger with the nuts (this said he doesnt know that)

basically vs this villain i think 5 is enough to not look super weak so he folds his junk with min loss if he has a good hand

he doesn't have junk he called your c/r

[Fnord]

$5 on the turn is way too small

rep a big hand, not a cheap bluff.

would you be betting only 1/2 pot with the nuts here? I doubt it.

^^^^ this ^^^^

The turned Ace should polarize your betting range. Also, if you thought you were really ahead you'd hammer the turn on a draw heavy board.

[eragotte]

okay thanks guys

[shallam]

A very interesting hand.

Had you begun the hand with a PFR you could easily represent an A. But since your opp PFRed he might actually *have* an A. What is the probability that your opp has an A ? Does your opp call on the flop indicate a pocket pair ? Or could he just as easily have two big cards it's HIS PFR hand and he's not folding to some brash play on your part ?


The former sounds more likely than the later. Thus, it would seem that representing either the A or a strong hand on the flop makes sense -- bet about 2/3 the pot.



Of course if you want to play the hand a little more cautiously check calling a modest bet on the turn would be ok too. Being OOP is a drag huh ?

[eragotte]

i dont 3bet oop very often from the blinds unless the person is stealing a lot, against an average straight forward player who stays inline from the CO (this guy) isnt a good spot to 3bet pre imo. i call with AJ here as well, sometimes aq vs this guy...

[Fnord]

Had you begun the hand with a PFR you could easily represent an A.

Advanced players know they should often check an Ace behind here.

[rpm]

my tendency would be to fire this turn a lot because i picked up 4 outs (perhaps only 3 clean ones if he has Ahxh) and it presents a potential RIO spot for QQ,KK, giving us extra fold equity (although being in position makes these hands a little more comfortable). that said, i'd probably be a winning player if i didn't spew like an alcoholic in bloated pots when i have air.