+EV river bluff?

[eragotte]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($42.40)
Button ($5)
Hero (SB) ($32.55)
BB ($25.40)
UTG ($25.75)
MP ($29.20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, J
4 folds, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 7, A, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.25, Hero raises to $3.25, BB calls $2

Turn: ($8) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

River: ($18) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $15, 1 fold

Total pot: $18 | Rake: $0.85

Okay so I think this bluff is +EV by the time I get to the river, say what you want of the flop play. Ive been stealing from villain from the sb almost every round, (sometimes I just like to f--- with people and see if they spazz). He has played incredibly cautious and seems to think about what I could have but isnt too deep a thinker.

On the flop I planned the check/raise because I think he bets his entire range and its pretty wide so not much of it is something he will continue with. When he has something big I think he reraises A2/A10/AK/sets like 100% of the time. AK i highly discount as well as AQ because he flats pre.

When the river comes he misses all flush draws, the only hand he could have that would improve is AQ... I doubt he has AQ/AK and I think he folds almost anything else. Am I missing anything?

[eragotte]

Also I thinking 15$ is way better than 8-12 because it gets AJ,A9,A8 to fold way more often

[clvacva]

I don't get the turn bet.
You really think he is gonna b/c that drawy flop and fold his continuing range on a 2h?

[Pelion]

So.... any idea of how loose/tight passive/aggro he is?

[surviva316]

i've been wrong many many times before, but i really don't get this hand. preflop is good...

[kmind]

I don't get the turn bet.
You really think he is gonna b/c that drawy flop and fold his continuing range on a 2h?

This isn't relevant if our goal is for the triple barrel to work.

Tbh I like this hand. He can't have anything better than AJ (AQ rarely) which can't stand the heat...not to mention the other weak stuff like draws. Actually, thinking about how we have the Qc sucks. If he has clubs he probably has some sort of combo draw which is more likely to get it in on the flop but meh.

[clvacva]

I rather barrel a card that gives us fold equity. That 2h adds nothing but makes it somewhat easier for marginal Ax,Tx hands to continue.

What's heros range for c/r that flop bvb look like?

[kmind]

Prob. doesn't matter too much what our range looks like in detail vs. this particular player. He's seems like a puss that hates aggression. That said, it's 25NL and I see people do weird crap with sets/2pairs/whatever like this in hero's shoes.

[XTR1000]

I dont hate it, but given dynamic you´re value towning yourself fairly often vs this guy.

[eragotte]

I dont hate it, but given dynamic you´re value towning yourself fairly often vs this guy.

Which type of hands do you think he gets to river with and calls? I suppose some passive donks shut down on a reraise with sets here maybe if theyre really bad but I think this guy is more likely to 4bet the flop... Or you think he can call river with like A9 because he thinks Im a cockbag lol...?

[eragotte]

KcJc rapessss me i guess lol haha

[JKDS]

I love the flop if our read is true (which implies he folds most of his leading range)

I hate the turn, since we just isolated the best part of his range and are now building a pot against it oop with a hand that only really has 4 outs. Its true that we can bluff some flush cards and some others, but im just really hesitant to do that against what looks like a bunch of Ax's and his own flush draws. Basically we're making this bet in anticipation of him folding to a river bet, but in the process we're running a 100bb bluff which i just dont like without a couple more outs.

River, well...its fine if we can expect Ax to fold. Rationally, we would expect it...but people are retarded and you've been attacking him so i cant help but think Ax is going to spite call you alot.

but idk, bluffing is the next thing im gonna work on so maybe the whole thing is fine lol

[spoonitnow]

Am I missing anything

Yeah that you're only getting him to fold hands worse than yours.

[eragotte]

I disagree ^

[Illfavor]

I dunno seems like we're either towning ourselves vs. A9 or folding out draws we beat anyway.

[Micro2Macro]

I hate your entire line, this includes sizing, etc.

betting this river and expecting Ax to fold when both the flush draw and some straight draws miss is just asking for too much imo.

this whole line is FPS

and by betting this river, given my reasoning, you are in fact just getting worse hands to fold most of the time.

[caddie444]

Also I thinking 15$ is way better than 8-12 because it gets AJ,A9,A8 to fold way more often

I've rarely met the villain who will call preflop with these hands, call your flop and turn bets, and fold the river. He never has these hands when he folds to your river bet IMO.

If you do decide to barrel this turn then you need to fire the river on blanks too. I just think he has weakish one pair hands that aren't folding way more than busted draws.

He isn't folding better as much as you think he is, if ever

this whole line is FPS

agree

[spoonitnow]

I disagree ^

If you'd take your fingers out of your ears and stop going LALALALALALALALALALALA then you might fuck around and learn something.

[eragotte]

okay so from your guys perspective the Q on the river does a lot more for me than what I thought it did for me at the time?

I guess fds in his range are like KcJc Kc9c-Kc2c Jc9c-Jc8c and all the connectors which i beat anyways... which is way more than I thought at the time.

As for disagreeing that he wont fold down the weakish aces, why not? in his spot I think I def do because these river overbets seem to always be big hands in micros...

by betting this river, given my reasoning, you are in fact just getting worse hands to fold most of the time.

^

i do get this though, and you probably have a good point, does any of you guys opinion change on different (non Q non flush) rivers?

[eragotte]

okay so from your guys perspective the Q on the river does a lot more for me than what I thought it did for me at the time?

I guess fds in his range are like KcJc Kc9c-Kc2c Jc9c-Jc8c and all the connectors which i beat anyways... which is way more than I thought at the time.

As for disagreeing that he wont fold down the weakish aces, why not? in his spot I think I def do because these river overbets seem to always be big hands in micros...

by betting this river, given my reasoning, you are in fact just getting worse hands to fold most of the time.

^

i do get this though, and you probably have a good point, does any of you guys opinion change on different (non Q non flush) rivers?