3 hands from latest sesh 10nl FR (kinda long)

[dranger7070]

#1) Villain is 16/10/3 over 90 hands with a 0% fold to cbet but only over 2 hands lol. I think he's going to jam with AxXc where X is > 9, 33, 22, 77+ where they have the club doing it as a semibluff and rightly believing that I would fold any non Ace hand without a club. I don't see how he can have AJ+ since I don't think he l/c these much, likewise I can't see him having A9/AT but its possible. KcXx, QcXx, JcXx, are also all very likely holdings. I also doubt he limp/calls QQ-AA PF, JJ is questionable. Totally forgot about this, but 45 is also an option ldo.

http://weaktight.com/1831759

{7c7x-JcJx, 22, 33, A7s-ATs, Ax9c-AxTc, KTo-KJo, QTo-QJo, TJo, 9Ts-QJs}

For KTo-KJo, QTo-QJo, TJo, they have to have a club. Otherwise I dont think he does this obv.

Vs this on this flop we have 43% equity, and we are getting 3.3:1 (23%) pot odds, making this an easy call.

#2) There is so much lulz in this hand. First hand at the table, I have no reads/stats, etc. So LDFO I'm going to playmaster this guy. PF could be a 3bet, but I prefer to call here. His 1/2 pot c-bet seemed kind of weak so I figured I'd just go ahead and float his donk ass and donkbet any scare cards (perfect turn for this imo) or value bet if I hit my T or A. Turn hits completing FDs, and a GSSD, so I opt to donk like I planned (sizing should be larger here), he kind of timed down then called so I put him on a mid PP, Kx with a weak K but DEFINITELY afraid of that third diamond.
I opted to barrel the river basically no matter what fell since I assume he wouldn't be able to stand up to the pressure. If I wanted to rep something here, I should obviously have bet larger, my bet basically screams that I'm either afraid of the 4 flush, or I'm just kidding, I dun haz anything. I opt to leave the results in cuz its funnay. I don't think my plan was a terrible one, but if I'm going to bluff this river, make it more believable, and FFS have HISTORY/stats with the guy before i try to playmaster him.

http://weaktight.com/1831775

#3) This was my last hand of the session on my last table so LDO I HAZ TO PLAY IT! Most of the table is nits, except for the two hudge stacks that are both 45/5/1 types over 115 hands. The villain I end up with has a tendency to c/minraise a lot of flops like this one, where its unlikely to have hit my range, and c/f on high card boards so I opt to just check it back here thinking my K high is going to be good a decent amount of the time, I have 2 overs, and a BDGSSD. Turn is probably a marginally safe card. Gives me an OESD but kind of counterfeits my J outs since he c/c he can easily have a 7 or Q here.
On the river he comes out and donks pot. This is the first time I've seen him do this, so I think this call was mostly out of curiosity, but it's still a bad call no matter how you look at it. I should have folded PF, but turn is fine, and river is bad. I check this back if he checks to me.

http://weaktight.com/1831781

[JKDS]

for the most part, i agree with everything youve said. seems like solid reasoning and analysis. theres 2 things im not sure about though

1) why do you not include A4-A8 in his range in hand 1? i find that many shortys (or is he not a shortstacker...) enjoy overplaying the fuck out of Ax post flop and also enjoy limp calling those types of hands. hes a 16/10 i guess, but i still see these here.

2) hand 3, if villain checked river, do you think we're likely to be check raised a ton? if not then i like value betting a lil' bit just cuz it makes his range closer to a medium pair type of thing...but you're right...as it stands a potsized donk bet has to be able to beat TPGK unless hes trickier than you let on

[JKDS]

actually no, we probably still shouldnt be betting all that much on the river in hand 3.../agreewith you again lol

[bikes]

Hand one is a snap

Hand 2 and 3 are just wtf.

[spoonitnow]

Hand 1: You know the deal here, but a way you can further your understanding of these spots is to find a range that makes a call break even and then decide against what type of players his range is wider than that or not.

Hand 2: Fold or 3-bet preflop because you're playing a hand that doesn't perform all that well against his range out of position. Your turn range isn't as strong as you think it is, and his river range isn't as weak as you think it is.

Hand 3: Don't do stupid shit that's blatantly -EV: fold preflop. Your turn bet makes no sense after checking the flop since you're never checking behind the flop with a strong hand to balance your checking range and he's calling with any pair and possibly stronger Ace high hands. Your river call is also pretty bad. I know OMGTOPPAIR but you don't have the equity to call here.

[dranger7070]

Thanks guys, this is exactly the kind of criticism I was looking for. I'm going to be doing this a lot from now on. (I'll try not to get too lazy. )

@Bbickes: yea I knew hand 1 is a snap call, hands 2 and 3 are ldo spew.

@Spoon: 1.) I'll do this then post in a bit. 2.) We've talked about this in IRC before, but apparently the message didn't get through that ATs just doesn't play that well OOP postflop. 3.) Again, totally agree. I was being stupid for some dumb ass reason thinking I can loosen up cuz its my last hand at the table. -.- I also agree river call is bade. Thats why i posted diz bitch.

[dranger7070]

Spoon, for hand 1, its got to be a pretty wide range. Including a lot of suited one and two gappers, sets, two pair, a lot of these hands would never be limped by a TAG (like J7s, Q8s, A2o, A3o) Basically this means its going to have to be a pretty big fish in order to have us breaking even on this call. I mean, I had to severely weight his range towards almost entirely flushes, two pair, sets, and some random Ax hands that we're going to get value from. I can safely get this in here vs almost any opponent, since anyone playing THAT wide of a range, will be stacking off with any Ax, instead of just A8-AT that I gave him.

[spoonitnow]

On the ATs thing it's kind of borderline against an unknown. If you knew he was fairly loose opening from the HJ or if he was really bad post-flop paying you off and shit then I'd be more okay with a call. I just think that AJs/ATs is about the borderline for you there where you should call AJs and 3-bet ATs. I mean, if you were on the button, would you be happy to call there with ATs? Probably. Would you be really happy with calling with worse? Probably not.