AK OTB facing sb C/R on turn

[caddie444]

Villain is 17/14 over 87, haven't really see him get out of line, has 13% 3-bet from sb

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($25)
CO ($25)
Hero (Button) ($30.50)
SB ($39.40)
BB ($21.90)
UTG ($28.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
2 folds, CO bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

I Flatted pre for two reasons:

1) I have the CO as a 8/6 nit over 200 and would like to play some post-flop poker
2) The SB seemed 3-bet happy and if he did 3 bet and CO called I could confidently shove

If the SB raised and CO shoved I think I could lay this down without too much thought.

Solid preflop plan?

Flop: ($2.50) , , (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($7.50) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $12.50, Hero ???

Total pot: $17.50 | Rake: $0.85


I'm having a little trouble giving him a complete range on the turn, I think it comes down to whether or not we thinks he calls flop and c/r'es with hands like 67s and KQ.

Anyways here's some likely ranges for him:

Against: 77,AKs,KJs,AKo,KJo I have ~28% equity

Against: 77,AKs,KJs+,AKo,KJo+ I have 50% equity ( KQ added to this range from previous)

if we add hands like 67s equity doesn't change too much. I don't really think he has JJ much here as his 3-bet% is 13% from sb over this sample.

Thoughts?

[surviva316]

i prolly wouldn't bet flop more than 1.75. as for turn, hmmmm. he's repping such a thin value range, but i don't really have reason to believe he wouldn't take this line for value on such a dry board with the PFR left to act behind him, and i really don't know how many draws are in his range. also his sizing and the fact that your line isn't weak on this board doesn't make me think he's bluffing.

all that being said, it only takes 4 combos of OESD's to be added to his thin value range (77, 7s6s, 2/3 combos of KJ) for us to have 35% equity. i think this is really close.

btw, i really like PF. if there's one spot where you're flatting AKs in COvBU, the spot described would be it.

[Monty3038]

Hmm... I am by no means skilled, but could this be a slow played set of jacks as well? or possibly 66 hiding in there too? Shouldn't we be including them in his range? I know 66 is highly unlikely to have continuted post flop, but I do think we should be considering JJ in the mix... or do you figure JJ is a different line?

[caddie444]

I know 66 is highly unlikely to have continuted post flop, but I do think we should be considering JJ in the mix... or do you figure JJ is a different line?

I think 66 is a stretch, like I said he hadn't really gotten out of line that I had noticed and I don't really think he'd call a c-bet OOP with 66.

I don't really think he has JJ much here as his 3-bet% is 13% from sb over this sample.

I mean it is possible for him to have JJ but I really expect him to 3-bet this hand especially after I just flat OTB

[caddie444]

I know 66 is highly unlikely to have continuted post flop

I think 66 is a stretch, like I said he hadn't really gotten out of line that I had noticed and I don't really think he'd call a c-bet OOP with 66.

but I do think we should be considering JJ in the mix... or do you figure JJ is a different line?

I don't really think he has JJ much here as his 3-bet% is 13% from sb over this sample.

I mean it is possible for him to have JJ but I really expect him to 3-bet this hand especially after I just flat OTB. If he did choose to just flat pre then I would expect him to take this line pretty much all of the time with it.

[Illfavor]

Erm..so does his 3bet mean he's 3bet once in 87 hands form the sb or..? I dunno. Too small a ss to really give any concern about imo.

Anyways, KJ, JJ, 77, 66, 76s all being firmly in his range imo, I shrug/fold.

[JKDS]

reverse implied odds fold imo

[rpm]

how is this an RIO spot?

[JKDS]

well, you may argue that the 7.5 isnt really a large bet considering the pot is 25, but villain still has 15 behind and is likely to bet it when we call. IIRC we dont have any reason to really beleive sb isnt taking a pure value line, and our outs arent good all the time.