nitty river with station..

[Chopper]

$0.25/$0.50 Limit Holdem
10 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

READnly player type i would dream of betting the river here is against a station.....whom villain is.

b/f, b/c, or fold if he donks?

Stacks:
Hero ($15.85)
UTG+1 ($19.40)
UTG+2 ($14.75)
MP1 ($17.25)
MP2 ($16.35)
MP3 ($9.80)
CO ($10)
BTN ($7.40)
SB ($13.25)
BB ($44)

Pre-Flop: (2.4 SB, 10 players) Hero is UTG J Q
[CO posts 1.0 SB]
Hero calls, 5 folds, CO checks, BTN calls, SB calls, BB checks

Flop: A Q J (5.0 SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: 3 (4.5 BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

River: 3 (6.5 BB, 2 players)

also, looking back brings up another question: i raised flop because i was automatically thinking of denying 4 and 5 outers their odds. but, in retrospect, that could be wrong. they would only be getting 7:1 or 8:1 if i only called anyway, and i can always pop the turn if the A doesnt pair. which has more EV....as played or waiting to pop turn?

[Chopper]

excuse the converter, but i am not anal enough to go back in fix this when we can still read it...lol.

[KoRnholio]

Probably b/f or fold if he donks... Assuming your read is solid.

I recently bought HEM and got it working on Paradise poker. I got a read off a guy using it but it was ulimately way off

I had 80 odd hands on this guy and pinned him as a station, stats were like 45/4/ passive postflop. I ended up dumping KJ on a board of like KT697 when he raised the flop, bet the turn then again on the river (3 way)... He had Q6

[Chopper]

i can dispute the fact that stations never bluff, too. i have called off so many pots where i knew i had to be just dead as hell, but wanted to see just wtf station was repping in a hand.....only to find he was bluffing some awful cards.

remember the one where i bitched because i folded the Thi 4card flush on the river to two bets to realize that the naked 6 raised a station that bluff-donked into 3 of us with J2o? that is still the most shocking hand i can remember from a station in months.

they do weird shit.

in fact, here's another that happened today at a NL table just before Lawdude found me at stars...

read: loose/passive/relatively passive player...kind of stationy looking, but not quite sure. not a ton of hands on him, though. i had been picking the tables blinds and limps with relentless aggression and cbetting like a freaking monkey....often 2 barreling. i was literally waiting for someone to take a stand and was running 46/35ish through 45 hands at this table.....up about 2/3 of a BI on steals and flops.

this guy was oop to me, but that didnt stop him THIS time. he decided it was now or never.

i have QQ in the BB. he has the SB. someone raises, he flats, i 3bet pretty big....about 4.5X the original raiser. flop is 889r. SB leads small. i pause for a split second and decide the 8 would c/r me since i've been a real bitch. so, i raise. pfr folds. SB comes over the top with the rest of his stack.

damn. i've kind of hooked myself here, but i have to call because he wasnt carrying a full stack and i couldnt see much beating me at this point, but i am kind of scared. i call to see.........4d6d!

i have a 93% equity advantage. and, of course, he sucks off the runner-runner 5 and 7 to smoke 2/3 a BI off me.

i wanted to fold, but still thought the 8 would c/r. i thought he thought he could get me to fold my whiffed AK with his shove....which i am still convinced he thought. doesnt matter, he didnt issue me a refund because he left the table shortly thereafter.....the bastard....lol. but, i had him as rather passive. and, after that, i stand by it because his bluff made no sense for the situation considering he didnt have any outs for failsafe.

bottom line: i still feel stations pick the completely wrong times to bluff when they do.