River Bet Sizing wit Dem Nutz

[surviva316]

Ok so i thought i'd do one of those douchebaggy HH's where i pretend like i know everything there is to know about poker and post a hand where i try to get you guys thinking about some things.

Sooooo, before i start, i'm not sure about the turn check at all here. talked about it in the irc and still am unsure, but that's besides the point. i really want you guys (BCers, not iopq and spenda who can end this thread by giving their thoughts) to think through this spot and give your thoughts on what bet sizing maximizes our value.

only like 35 hands in with villain, but he's likely a reg (28/22/ 3b of 9 and ATS of 38), and he's almost certainly positionally aware.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($13.85)
BB ($5.05)
UTG ($27.05)
MP ($26)
CO ($17.15)
Hero (Button) ($35.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with ,
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) , , (2 players)
MP bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.85) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.85) (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets _________

so debate away.

I think

really want you guys (BCers, not iopq and spenda who can end this thread by giving their thoughts)

oh nm

[Kbryce23]

I like the turn check because you have showdown value and he isnt folding anything you beat, plus a check-raise would suck. I would bet like 3.90 and hope he calls with JQ or some pp or slowplayed quads or something.

[kiwiMark]

Alright, so first of all let's try and get a rough idea for what hands he could be holding on the river.

Preflop: So he's raising 22% of hands, but probably a much tighter range from UTG+1, let's say something like: {AJ+, KQ, QJs, 66+)

Flop: If he's a run-of-the-mill reg like you suspect then he could easily be c-betting his entire range here, so it remains unchanged.

Turn: When he checks here I think we can say that he very rarely has hearts, or he'd be firing a second barrel. He's also not betting TT or 99 on the flop and then checking this turn I don't think.
So his range seems now to be: {AJ+, KQ, QJs, 66, 88, JJ+, but with no suited hearts} - I'm not sure how he plays JJ+ here, but I could maaaybe conceive he fired a cbet with them and is now scared you have a T, so I'm keeping them in there.

River: Maybe the flush coming in scared him, or the paired board, so I don't really want to eliminate KQ from his range based solely on his check. I think he's betting JJ however. In any event his range now consists of a bunch of missed hands that aren't calling anything (and that we beat if we check behind) so are largely irrelevant and this subrange, from which we could get value: {AJ, KQ, QJs, 88, QQ+}

And this is where I just sorta break down into even rougher guesswork, and start spouting stuff like this:

Hands he's calling 1/2 PSB with: {AJ, KQ, QJs, 88, QQ+} (All of the subrange that I decided we could get value from. 52 combinations, 100%) $2.5 * 100% = $2.5

Hands he's calling a PSB with: {KQ, 88, QQ+} (37 combinations, 71% ) $5 * 71% = $3.55

Hands he's calling a shove with: {KQ} (16 combinations, 31%) $24 * 31% = $7.20

So according to that a shove is best, but if I'm being honest I think it's marginal that he's actually calling a shove with the straight. Also a lot of you probably disagree that he never has hearts. In any event, this wasn't supposed to be definitive just some practice analysing I guess. Comments welcome!

Oh, and Surviva:
-Mark

[surviva316]

^^^^^^^^^^ keep analysis like this coming.

i think there are def some ways that mark's breakdown can be improved

[tugger]

A straight isn't calling a push, not unless he's mental.

I guess it depends on my table image. If I'd been bluffing lots of pots on the river, I'd keep my bet size in line with the bluffs, ie 70% of pot. Straight or flush will call, and a JJ will probably raise.

But if I have a tight image, I guess I'd fire less, maybe half pot, to keep KQ and maybe even AA calling. Again, I'd still expect to see JJ raise.

The push will only get called by a monster, and seeing how we should expect jacks full and quad tens to raise us, we can still expect to stack off against these hands.

Yeah, between half and 70%, depending on table image.

[clvacva]

bet 3.75
if he played KJ/QJ/AJ then get some value. He might also call with some 88/78 or whatever....

[littleogre]

I'll just regurgitate what i learned from the video series the mathematics of poker . With the nuts you are usually better off just shoving the river. It is mainly talking about hands where we bet both the flop and turn though. I think any boat will call a shove 100 percent of the time. At those stakes i would say a ace high flush is also calling every time. I say str8s are hardly ever calling. I'm not sure about under flushes though.

[tugger]

[double post]

[tugger]

I'll just regurgitate what i learned from the video series the mathematics of poker . With the nuts you are usually better off just shoving the river. It is mainly talking about hands where we bet both the flop and turn though. I think any boat will call a shove 100 percent of the time. At those stakes i would say a ace high flush is also calling every time. I say str8s are hardly ever calling. I'm not sure about under flushes though.

My problem with the shove is it's so obviously a strong hand. OK, there's no way he's going to put us on the stone cold nuts, and jacks full is calling. But by pushing you're giving weak full houses, like 7's and 9's full the chance to get away. Straight definitely folds, unless were up against an absolute fish, and flushes should fold to a massive all in too, allbeit with a bit of thinking time as if to show your displeasure.

Too many times I see people go all in on the river for a relatively small pot, and it seems obvious they have the nuts, or something near it. I've been able to get away from 2pr and hands like that thanks to this kind of logic, hands that would pay a 70% bet. Rarely I see these bets called, and even rarer is it a bluff when they do get called.

I prefer to put out a smallish bet so if he has a boat, he's looking at the bet and thinking "That's not enough for my hand", and raises. This way we keep the flushes and straights, maybe even AA, calling our bet. Bear in mind it looks as though we have hit backdoor flush, so maybe even weaker full houses raise us too.

I might be wrong, perhaps the shove is most profitable over a billion hands, but I still think we stack off against jacks full by betting 50%-70% pot.

[Micro2Macro]

Overbet shoving here is bad. The problem with it is alot of the 2nd/3rd nut hands etc that would call aren't likely in his range - he checked the turn and river ffs.

Now that I think about it I doubt he really has anything in his range at all he's calling with unless he decides to station off like 66 or decides to bluff catch with AJ. You aren't getting value from these hands by just shoving.

[Love2Race]

$3 is a good bet here. Weak hands dont call anything, marginal hands could call or fold, maybe more of an "F-it!" call, and the strongest range of hands raise.

[Keith]

I'm tempted in this situation to bet $1.50 and appear to be nervous of the flush myself. Villain would appear to be fairly aggressive with 3b of 9 and ATS of 38 . The intention would be to let him try to steal the pot by taking a strong check raise the river line. This would get maximum value out of his air /weak hands that he may bluff ,its liable to get a call from his showdownable hands and his strong( perceived nuts ) hands are likely to raise.

[Monty3038]

Ok, so I'm going to not read the replies and see what I come up with, and if the analysis is along the lines you are looking for.

Villian is positionally aware, so UTG+1 means he isn't opening total garbage. He raises 22%, so let's tighten that down a bit for UTG+1, say to 15%. I'd say his range includes definately 22+, AJ+, sc's down to JT, maybe KQ... that may or may not = 15%, but that is a starting point...

His heavy flop bet, hmm... 1.50 into a 1.85 pot, basically that is almost full pot... let me do the math here... like 81% (ok, a little lower than I initially thought) so let's say 3/4. He's trying to put you on a bad call, seeing where you are going with it... I think his range tightens here, say 99+, AJ, sc's... maybe if he opens with JQ, they are in there...

You call and he checks... the call might have him worried... his check seems to help me narrow him down to an overpair... he wasn't worried about the board on the flop, nothing scared him until you checked... now he has to worry you are sitting on a ten... anything else and he is still ahead, but then the turn matches one of the cards, opening the flush for both you you as a possibility...

Your check leads him to wonder I suppose. His check on the river to me indicates he settled on the overpair. With no notes that he check raises made hands, I think you've got him beat, he seems concerned about the flush, probably can't credit you with the straight unless he has seen you play it this way before, and he's nervous... a bet here gets a fold a lot of the time. He is only calling with a flush, a set or better here... but your straight flush has him. I'd say go for 1/2 pot to see if he'll call... likely he is folding this without the set or better (J's is the set I'm referring to, 9's he will fold away). Unless he hit with AT or something I don't expect him to have...

Now that analysis has no math behind it at all... and may be way off... let me know your thoughts...

[surviva316]

i guess now's about the time to give my thoughts on this:

i think that a lot of you got the main and most important point, and that is that villain's range is pretty weak for the most part. this is the type of board that people seldom wanna get fancy on with the flush and straight possibilities abound, so the turn check is often him saying "i don't even have anything i'm that thrilled about showing down." (i think that this is only half right, but i'll get to that in a minute).

so he's raising pre and cbetting this flop with a pretty wide range: 22+, AJ+, KQ, 98s+ like 60% of the time, something liek ATs sometimes, etc.

now when we get to the turn, i think there's a caveat that has been largely ignored. i thinks he checks this with a wider range than you guys are giving him credit (at least some %age of the time). he can afford to check 99, TT and 77 and go for a c/r because he's gonna be floated on this board so much. in fact, it's actually pretty good for balance, because his betting range still contains plenty that's willing to stack off (KK, AA, Tx) on this board, and his checking range is far less susceptible to bluffing. i know that at the micros it seems insane to miss a street of value with a boat, but i don't think it's so crazy to weight the nuts in his range at least a little bit. as for all the people who said that he doesn't have hearts when he checks this turn, you're crazy, plain and simple.

so really the only things that i take out of his range with any kind of certainty is Tx, JJ+, and i think most of his straight draws barrel.

i think the river check is really debatable for what it does to his range, but one thing is for sure is that my range has been polarized to showdown hands that aren't going to call a bet a lot of the times and draws, most of which hit to make straights or flushes. so betting for value with anything is essentially going to fold out worse and get action from hands that woulda bet behind anyway. blah blah blah, we're not villain in the hand so i don't wanna get too indepth into this, but basically i'm trying to set up the point that it's not at all beyond my expectation for villain to check both the turn (as a whiffed c/r) and river (as a bluff inducer) with the top of his range (boats and strong flushes).

so what we do know is that he does not have a lot of hands (like overpairs, trips and straights) that are checking to call a 3/4 PSB bet. he has A LOT of weak hands, most of which are going to snap fold but some that can withstand a very small bet (like 88 and AJ and some other things that might talk themselves into a hero call 'cause this is such a bluff inducing board and he took such a bluff inducing line). the other smaller portion of his range is a bunch of hands that are very strong but leaking value fast and are going for a c/r.

so from that weaker part of that range, we wanna bet small to induce a hero call, or maybe even induce a rebluff with his D range. from the stronger part of that range we want to be sure that when he sees it he thinks "well i'm not getting enough value from this ballin' ass hand by c/c'ing such a small bet" so that he c/r's.

so, i decide to bet $2 (<1/2 PSB) and he snap folds.