10NL: Why did I put myself in this position

[Knytestorme]

Villain is 33/22/4 over only 87 hands. As soon as I made the river bet I thought "Fuck, what do I do if he c/r's me" and he did, the question is if I'm ever good here since the only play that makes sense form his viewpoint is something like 78 and has me on the flush draw where he can check and expect me to bet when it comes in on the river.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($10.74)
CO ($15.32)
Hero (Button) ($26.18)
SB ($11.50)
BB ($4.95)
UTG ($3.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
2 folds, CO bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.85) 7, 5, 3 (2 players)
CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.05) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.65) 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.90, CO raises $6.60, Hero ?????

[clvacva]

I'm not sure you can bet the river for value here ,Villain has overpairs trips and flushes in his range. I would have checked back the river. Doubt he c/r the river when your range like you said yourself contains flush draws. I think it's an easy fold.

btw I think you could have 3bet pre for value against someone who is opening a lot .....just saying.

[kmind]

Meh fold turn and are you saying you are value betting the river? You may be able to bet as a bluff since any 7/flush is beating an overpair but put him on some more specific ranges man.

[Knytestorme]

yeah it was a value-bet on the river as I figured he would most likely call me down with A-high. I ruled a flush out as I assumed he would bet that when it hit since it would be less likely I would be on a flush draw as well, also ruled out any hand with a 3 and 55 and since I have 88 then 78 seems unlikely so only hand really in his range that has the boat would be 76 (77 as well but given 2 of them out there it's unlikely he has the pp).

Not sure I agree with folding the turn but I do agree I played the hand badly on every street and should have played back at him pre, flop or turn just to see where his head was at.

I'm thinking my bet sizing looks really weird but still like I'm betting for value so I can't see him raising me there with anything but a 7....maybe 33 so I'm ok with the fold, just not sure my reasoning for betting is right. Say the river was 4, would that be a better spot to value with nothing else changed?

[kmind]

Playing back at him for that reason doesn't really make sense. I really doubt 10NLers double barrel without some sort of draw/hand so I don't see how he has A high here ever. He can easily have A7/T7s/97s/76 here as well on the river so keep that in mind. You are right that diamonds rarely c/r the river but semi-possible. The main thing here though is that he is so rarely double barreling with air that I just fold turn (on the turn you can throw in overpairs/86/75/55/33 as well).

If the river was a 4 no I would not bet. I do not think you are getting called by worse here at all and are often still behind even when you check.

He two-barreled then checked the river. We have an over-pair to the board but what does he have? 7x, 33, 55, flush, 99+? I check behind because I don't think he's calling a bet with worse hands or folding a better hand, especially with that weak-ass river bet.

[Outlaw]

Its possible he just played the hand very well. With his stats he's probably a decent player for 10NL. Check the river behind 100% of the time here imo.

What's important here what your image is and not really what his are. W/O trying to go to deep for 10NL maybe he thought the only way he'd get action on his boat was to check the river when the flush card hit? You played it just like a weak overpair or a flush draw.

[Da GOAT]

u turned your hand into a bluff on river imo, nothing is calling you but cud fold better hands (unlikely given your bet size). so u made a bad bluff

[littleogre]

Not taking his c-bet percentage into account as you didn't post it and 87 hands is to small for that stat to be useful. I would raise the flop. He will only have an over pair around 13 percent of the time. The vast majority of the time he has 2 overs. Calling would be ok but personally i don't like it as so many turn cards can give him a better pair then you.

[littleogre]

oh as played check behind on the river. You have a decent amount of showdown value.

[Donkafelts]

Obviously check behind river, littleogre, what worse hands is calling with on flop? If he is c betting as a bluff pick up another barrel on turn and check behind river.

Btw, what do we do if villian checks turn to us?

[pokertrainer.se]

Personally I would prefer to play this hand more aggressively.
Raise preflop, but the call is ok. I would definitely had raised the flop - I guess you have the best hand on flop at least 80 % on the time - and he can be on a draw or hit overcards so it is important to bet.
He is raising from cut-off with something like 25 % of all hands and probably c-bets quite often. On the turn you have to assign him a wide range even if he is double-barreling.
As the hand was played I would definitely have checked the river.
Calling his raise? It could be a complete bluff, but it is not really a good spot for him to pull that since you have been playing your hand like a draw. I guess he is not bluffing more than 20 % of the time in this spot and you don't have the odds to call that. So I vote for a fold.
A thing that might be interesting to think about on this hand; if he really has a flush now and you do call, then the hand has played out absolutely perfectly from his perspective. He has gotten really great odds to draw to the flush.

[kmind]

Raising the flop seems pretty bad. It's like you're only raising for protection or as a bluff. We have 2 outs when bluffing and raising for protection is retarded most of the time.

[Knytestorme]

Totally agree with everything said here, the river is a definite check behind rather than turning it into the bluff as I did but I do still think that AKo could be in his range that would two barrel and then check the river when the flush hits.

I'm thinking that raising the flop may have been the best play though...I have an over-pair to the board and my line looks like a pp that is either an overpair or a set, if he has AK/Q then he's likely to just call and shutdown on a black turn and then I know where I'm at and if he has a set or an overpair he's likely to play back at me and I can get away at that point.

Thoughts?

[kmind]

No stop trying to make bets to see where you are at. Raising this flop is bad with 2 outs as he has a ton of hands that will call a raise and will also reraise a certain%. Most microstakes "regs" will cbet a wide range but only double barrel with a few hands. To exploit this, we need to call with a wide variety of hands (depending on how often he actually cbets) and folding to his turn bets. If he does double barrel frequently (which I highly doubt), then I like raising more but I still wouldn't with this hand.