100NL, my lord, i cant stand these FR nits

[pokerfan]

villian is a regular running 12/8/2.8. His steal% is only 18%. Folks, i hate his line soooo much These fucking players need to go to hell!!!!
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($118)
SB ($23.60)
BB ($124.55)
UTG ($51.45)
UTG+1 ($20)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($101)
MP3 ($112.35)
CO ($58)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
4 folds, MP3 bets $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) A, 2, 6 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.50) 10 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

River: ($7.50) 9 (2 players)
MP3 bets $6, Hero raises $18.50, MP3 raises $103.35 (All-In), Hero fuck his life

[Parasurama]

lol it's so funny when people check on Axxr with initiative oop

do you think he plays 66/22 this way? If not I can't see a call.

[pokerfan]

lol it's so funny when people check on Axxr with initiative oop

do you think he plays 66/22 this way? If not I can't see a call.

i have no idea what he has after a river shove. i guess its a close-to -nuts hand for sure unless he is a total drunk.

lol, he has aa ldo

[spoonitnow]

I'm of the opinion that this is a relatively easy call, even if he's 50% more likely to take this line with AA than 22/66.

[caddie444]

Is this ever 78 suited? or does his steal% negate that option?

[bigspenda73]

fairly positive he'd cbet 8 high w/ the initiative

[OP]

Even though I absolutely hate basing reads solely on HUD numbers, am I the only one who thinks that a quote unquote 2.8 with AA would bet that turn like 98% of the time given it brought the BD FD and a few other straight draw combos? Even if he is solely playing his hand, he should realize that that card is bad for his equity and try to stick some money in the pot with a top set. I'm really having a hard time giving him credit for a better hand than yours.

[Parasurama]

Even though I absolutely hate basing reads solely on HUD numbers, am I the only one who thinks that a quote unquote 2.8 with AA would bet that turn like 98% of the time given it brought the BD FD and a few other straight draw combos? Even if he is solely playing his hand, he should realize that that card is bad for his equity and try to stick some money in the pot with a top set. I'm really having a hard time giving him credit for a better hand than yours.

Although I agree that he should be betting at least the turn with top set, it's not all that scary of a card from his perspective and it's nowhere near 98% scary.

Another thing to consider is that TT could take this line as well.

Here's a convoluted thought:

If he has a set and has decided to check the flop, he doesn't understand two things:

1. A cbet looks weaker than a check
2. His opponent isn't putting much more money in the pot with 33-55/77-KK/air but will call/raise a bet with AJ/AQ/AK/A6/A2/22/66.

Both of these are true for all three possible sets on the flop. So if he's betting 22/66 but checking AA it means that he does understand:

3. Betting while holding 22/66 is much more likely to get paid off than betting while holding AA.

So, the likelihood of his range being {AA} is the same as the likelihood that he understands 3 but not 2 and 1. Of the three concepts, I believe that 1 is the most advanced, 3 is next, and 2 is least advanced.

So, I conclude that it is unlikely that he understands 3 while disregarding 2. Therefore, his range is probably wider than {AA}

I also considered the possibility that he could take this line with TT, but decided that the probability of this was low enough that it couldn't change the decision from a call to a fold.

In conclusion, call. However, if I haven't placed the concepts correctly in order of their relative complexity, this is incorrect.

[Miffed22001]

Even though I absolutely hate basing reads solely on HUD numbers, am I the only one who thinks that a quote unquote 2.8 with AA would bet that turn like 98% of the time given it brought the BD FD and a few other straight draw combos? Even if he is solely playing his hand, he should realize that that card is bad for his equity and try to stick some money in the pot with a top set. I'm really having a hard time giving him credit for a better hand than yours.

has he done anything in the hand he 'should' have done? no

Fold - feel crap about it also IMO

[pokerfan]

The real question:
should we bet something with our 99 on this flop when checked to? Did i make a mistake by not betting but giving him free cards to let him catch up?

[Seabass]

It looks a lot like TT or perhaps AA. It could be 66 or 22 but less so I think. He might not even have 22 in his range or shove it on the river if he has. When nits overbet-shove it tends to be very close to the nuts rather then "only" a very strong hand. I think its a fold.

As for betting the flop when he checks, it depends on the player and his range for checking. If I'm not sure I tend to bet more then not. Very very few gets tricky and c/r with air.

[JinxT4]

Looks like a pretty easy fold.

[BankItDrew]

It's not an easy fold.

I think we are ahead more than half of the time = call.

I really like OP's analysis. Good logic by Parasurama as well.

[pokerfan]

My Stationy fellows, its definitely an easy fold in theory. In the heat of the moment, i was just pissed off by his line and made a hero crying call. When was the last time we saw a FR nit shove over our river raise without nuts? His 78s just got there. Hmmmm, why did i give him some nice free cards to catch up? Yeah, these 12/8/2.8 players can steal from these late positions for sure.

[KillsAids]

snapcall

[KillsAids]

Also if I didn't bet the flop and he checked again on turn, I'm always betting. So if it was me here, I might expect my opponent to be trapping me with AA because I will bet much more often than not on either flop or turn. Anyways as played I'm calling the river shove.

[Fnord]

Is raise/fold really an ideal river line here?

Turned and Rivered sets is spots like this <<<<<< flopped sets

I call his river bet and laugh when he shows me a slow played set.

[Jason]

That's kind of a tough situation and in hindsight, you made a mistake by making a raise and being rattled by the check raise. It's fine to fold or call a check raise, but it's a mistake to make a bet and not know how you're going to hand a raise. In the lower levels, a player like this would have a monster and want you to call, so a fold is the best play, but most of them are donks who don't know how to extract value. Since I've been playing $25NL, I can't really comment on what $100NL players typically do or what they have in this situation. There are only two hands that beat you and only 12 combinations of cards in the deck to make those two hands.

This is mainly a leveling problem and knowing what his perception of you and your image versus what he is capable of doing. If you have been bullying him or the table, not been showing down hands, or showing down some bluffs OR he has just lost a big pot or might be tilting in some way, this could be a good call because we now have a reason to put him on something other than AA or TT like AK, AQ, Ax, 22, or a busted draw. On the other hand, if your image is solid and his play is indicative of his stats, then this is a clear fold and he shows up with AA most of the time. I see the psychology of villain unfolding like this:

Pre-flop: "I got aces - small raise and hopefully someone will re-raise it. C'mon, raise, you stupid donkeys! .. Crap! Just one caller ..."
Flop: "Yahtzee! I got a set of aces ... hrm, this sucks, though. I'll never get paid if I bet it because he probably doesn't have an ace. I better check and hope he bets it."
Turn: "Sheesh, this sucks. He probably missed. I'm out of position, so I have to give him a chance to bet @ this. Please bet you, donkey."
River: "Well, I guess the jig is up. I have to try to get at least something now. I'll bet something small and hopefully he'll do something stupid. Cmon, donkey, do something stupid ... get frisky!"
River re-raise: "Hell yeah! I don't know if he's bluffing or if that 9 helped him, but I'll shove and hopefully he'll call. Call, you donkey. Eff your life!"

The main point is that when you raise his river bet, he now believes or HOPES you have a big hand and so that's why he re-raises all-in to try to maximize value or make-up for all the lost flop and turn bets. If this was a modest hand like AK or AQ, he more likely would have simply bet for value on the flop or turn as that's not a hand he should want to get all-in at any point unless you are an opponent who has proved himself worthy of that. Again, that goes back to image and your play.

[pokerfan]

As i said above, he had 78s straight NUTS, guys. Actually, I'm interested in discussing the best play with medium pairs on ace high board vs these villians. I did give him free cards to catch up as played.

[Muzzard]

I bet the turn a fair %

[Jason]

As i said above, he had 78s straight NUTS, guys. Actually, I'm interested in discussing the best play with medium pairs on ace high board vs these villains. I did give him free cards to catch up as played.

I wrote my first response having not seen what you wrote. 87 is plausible, but at the bottom of his range because he's less likely to hit runner runner. But, it's about relative hand strength, so whether he had 87, TT, or AA isn't really relevant. The main point is that his line DOES reflect strength in my opinion unless there is contrary evidence so that we can put hands you beat in his range.

The two main mistakes I think you can learn from is:

(1) Know how to handle a check/raise or ANY raise - it's okay to call, raise, or fold, after you've been raised but just don't let any decision rattle you

(2) Don't go broke in a small pot. The pot was $32 and he came over the top for an extra $84. You had to risk $84 to win $116.85 against a 12/8. You need a really good read to justify that. Although it technically wasn't a limped pot, it does reflect the spirit behind the adage, "Don't go broke in a limped pot".

Yes, it's easier said than done. Once @ $5NL, I had A8 and in a blind versus blind situation, made a small raise and the flop came out 885. I made a small bet and the big blind came over the top all-in for a buy-in. I remember thinking my opponent was VERY nitty and I knew he had a very strong hand, but I said out loud "I can't fold trip 8's top kicker" and he turned over pocket 5's

[Fnord]

Yes, it's easier said than done. Once @ $5NL, I had A8 and in a blind versus blind situation, made a small raise and the flop came out 885. I made a small bet and the big blind came over the top all-in for a buy-in. I remember thinking my opponent was VERY nitty and I knew he had a very strong hand, but I said out loud "I can't fold trip 8's top kicker" and he turned over pocket 5's

Not folding...

23,760 games 0.032 secs 742,500 games/sec

Board: 8c 8d 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.929% 22.93% 00.00% 5448 0.00 { A8s, A8o }
Hand 1: 77.071% 77.07% 00.00% 18312 0.00 { 55 }

[Deanglow]

Stop saying "easy fold" or "easy call" when it clearly isn't. We have 3rd set against a (probably bad) nit who 3bet shoves the river. And tbh, it probably doesn't matter that much what we do either way. I know like 2 or 3 3/6 regulars I'd fold against but not more than that.

just bet $4 on the flop with your entire range except maybe jj/qq, if not the flop then on the turn.

and yeah, 87 makes way more sense than AA, just didn't notice the straight out there.

In my experience a villain with this stat line has never even once done this for either thin value or as a bluff, and since a flopped low set is definitely going to bet either the flop or the turn, he ALWAYS has TTT or better, so yes I do think this is an easy fold.

I agree with Jason's analysis.

[Miffed22001]

i probably bet flop 50/50 - because i probably 3bet a decent ace preflop here
Definitley bet the turn if he double checks to you - just looks as though hes giving up, then hes most likely to pot the river at you and then the hand turns into a completley different scenario on the river

if we had done something more 'standard' on earlier streets this hand would have been a much simpler decision - as we didnt we found ourselves making an unfamiliar/difficult decision for a lot of money

[mcatdog]

When was the last time we saw a FR nit shove over our river raise without nuts?

And why should they when people can't fold bluff-catchers?

By the way I think bluffing this turn is pretty poor and 99 is an even worse choice of hand to do it with. Sure he had 8 high this time, that he somehow didn't bet the flop with, but the majority of the time you have two outs in this spot, and will have to fire the river to win the pot, and even that might not work.

[Miffed22001]

When was the last time we saw a FR nit shove over our river raise without nuts?

And why should they when people can't fold bluff-catchers?

By the way I think bluffing this turn is pretty poor and 99 is an even worse choice of hand to do it with. Sure he had 8 high this time, that he somehow didn't bet the flop with, but the majority of the time you have two outs in this spot, and will have to fire the river to win the pot, and even that might not work.

i dont necessarily agree against someone who is playing their cards ABC style at 24 odd tables. However i think its clear that if we bet the turn and get called we must bet the river as standard