25NL: Turn line

[Evilpopcorn]

Villian Stats : (VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

16/11 [2 3 2] 3% over 229 hands

Cold Call % : 13%
Fold to Cbet = 40% (6/15)

My Thoughts And Questions

Is this a b/f , c/c or c/f turn ?

I discount AK JJ+ from his range as i think he 3bets this.

Well what hands do i think i have beat on the turn: KT K9s A8 A7 AQ 99-TT

Hands that have me beat on turn: KJ 88 77 T9s

Hand that i have beat that will call a turn bet : KT K9s

So seeing that the only worse hands that call my turn bet is KT and K9s does this then make this a check/?

Now with the check/? line i would think that his guy for the most part wouldnt bluff a lot. Checking back his A8 A7 99-TT. So does this mean its a check/fold turn ? Feels kinda weak.

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

SB: $25.00
BB: $45.25
UTG: $29.75
Hero (CO): $27.90
BTN: $26.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q K
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, BTN calls $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.35) K 8 7 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, UTG folds

Turn: ($8.35) J (2 players)
Hero?

[kmind]

I'd take out KT and K9 out of his range. That should make it clear what decision I think is best.

[bigspenda73]

check den fold, worst card in the deck if you were ahead, his flop calling range is like AK/KQ/KJ/9T/77/88

16/11's aren't flatting K9s here and KTs should be discounted as well.

You cannot discount hands like AK/QQ/JJ against nitty players like this, in fact my standard w/o some 3betting history would be to flat JJ/AK a decent% of the time in this spot.

[Evilpopcorn]

I included KT and K9s becuase of his CC% and his low fold to Cbet on flop.

In post analysis i was leading to check/fold, and if we start adding in that some of the time he is gonna have AA KK AK here then this is a clear check/fold in my mind.

[kmind]

He only calls 5% of the time so he's going to have a lot more SC and PP before KT and K9.

[Fnord]

Yuck.

Surrender.

[Evilpopcorn]

He only calls 5% of the time so he's going to have a lot more SC and PP before KT and K9.

I see 5% is the difference between his VP$IP and PFR, but wouldnt CC% be more accurate ?