Blufraising river against a TAG

[minSim]

Villain in the hand plays 18/14/2.1 over 367 hands, with 70% cbet and decent aggresive postflop stats overall.

I'm floating the flop because a raise isn't repping a lot and with my backdoor draws I can get tricky on later streets, if villain isn't handing over the pot to me on the turn.

I expect villain to barrel the turn with basically any FD and good K+, so his river leads says either a boat, KT or a weak hand to me. Thoughts about raising?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($66.05)
SB ($50.75)
Hero (BB) ($116.70)
UTG ($31.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 6
2 folds, SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3) 7, K, 7 (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

River: ($15) 10 (2 players)
SB bets $7, Hero ?

[bikes]

The range you're repping for a river raise here is so thin that I would just fold.

You can have like AXss and 7Xss and thats it. I'm pretty sure if I was the villian I would not fold JJ here to a raise.

[mixchange]

I don't like this board to float with this hand. I would prefer raising flop and being done with the hand unless I picked up equity on the turn.

[minSim]

I don't like this board to float with this hand. I would prefer raising flop and being done with the hand unless I picked up equity on the turn.

Please elaborate a bit if you want.
Is it the dryness of the board that we're getting barreled a lot?

I'd say we're not repping much by raising a board like this, especially BvB. But maybe as we're IP we can polarise our range more and basically let villain deal with the tough decisions?

[Da GOAT]

I don't like floating a shorty. U cud bluff raise vs some opp but not shortys

[minSim]

I don't like floating a shorty. U cud bluff raise vs some opp but not shortys

Villain isn't short?

[pocketfours]

I'd fold. I like flop/turn.

[bode]

agree flop and turn are fine. betting turn is standard after picking up a gs, but its an easy river fold.

The range you're repping for a river raise here is so thin that I would just fold.

You can have like AXss and 7Xss and thats it. I'm pretty sure if I was the villian I would not fold JJ here to a raise.

I disagree, I'd consider shoving 7x without the flush

if you were the villain you wouldn't fold JJ so it's obviously a good value raise

[oskar]

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?! @ folding flop & betting turn.

He's c-betting this flop all the time, which is fine. I raise this flop both for value (88+, Kx) as well as a bluff.

When he DOESN'T barrel the turn, I'd just give up. This is such an obvious board to barrel as well as to float - if he has half a brain he'll expect you to bet the turn for protection/value/bluff all the time when checked to.

River is a great spot to raise for value if you have anything, because it makes no sense for you to have anything
Not so good as a bluff though imo.

I'd also 3-bet pre a lot depending on villain.

[Da GOAT]

Oskar why wud u raise such a range on flop vs a nit especially?

I misread as 100 nl stacks, flop and turn are fine tho I wud make turn abit bigger.

[oskar]

I'm just making assumptions here. It continues to amuse me that people post the stats that are almost completely irrelevant in the hand, and leave out the interesting ones. - if you didn't filter the stats for 4-handed or current session if it was 4-handed all the time, then they're even more useless.

I'd expect a generic opponent opponent to open around 50% of his hands there and c-bet almost 100% of that range on the flop. There are no draws, so if he folds everything but a pair+ hand to a raise, and never 4-bet bluffs, then a raise is immediately profitable.

But it's all blah without steal stats.


I don't want to sound like I know what I'm doing too much, but ending every sentence with 'imho' would also look dumb... so...
I'll do ranges on that later because it's an interesting spot, but now it's pizza time.

[Da GOAT]

I mean u can bluff raise with air but I think it's much better to call flop with the range u mentioned.

I mean u can bluff raise with air but I think it's much better to call flop with the range u mentioned.

not necessarily, we basically hold two uno cards on the flop
I don't see how calling flop and betting turn is better than raising flop

sure, we get to see villain check, but it's like the "float" line is so well-known I don't think we do necessarily better by calling flop and betting turn

I think raising dry flops with 0 equity is better because most people don't float them at 100NL
now if you had ace high, calling would be better because you have equity in the hand

[Da GOAT]

i never mentioned betting turns. oskars range for raising shud usually just call flop.

A high is actually a solid bluff raise hand since it has some more equity vs opp calling range.

i never mentioned betting turns. oskars range for raising shud usually just call flop.

A high is actually a solid bluff raise hand since it has some more equity vs opp calling range.

ok, so we call flop, check turn and fold river?

[oskar]

It would be nice if we could agree on ranges first.

If he's opening 45%, then he has any pair or better 35% of the time.

He has 8's or better 28% of the time... so if you assume he c-bets this flop with his entire range, and only continues with 8's or better, then raising the flop is definitely +EV.

Calling is a shitload of work to figure out, but I can't really think of an argument for it. It doesn't look much stronger than raising imo, he can catch up on the turn and your hand has little chance to improve - despite being the best possible draw.
And you'll get double barreled a shitton.

[Da GOAT]

i never mentioned betting turns. oskars range for raising shud usually just call flop.

A high is actually a solid bluff raise hand since it has some more equity vs opp calling range.

ok, so we call flop, check turn and fold river?

probably checking turn then reevaluate river. depends on our holdings on river exactly then, opp timing, and possible range for opp. We can bet tiny to get A high to call for example.

[minSim]

Oskar, I'm sorry I missed villains stealing stat which should be mentioned of course. His total stealing stat 32, SB stealing range stat is 29%, from 21 occasions.

He also had 20% 4bet (small sample) and decent 3bet stats which made me not want to 3bet this playable hand IP BvB. I agree 3betting is an option.

I also agree I should disable old hands from the stats. Filtering 360 for 4 handed only seems silly though.

I can't really see someone raising 45% from the SB at my stakes, 35% max and villains with these tight stats even less usually, in my experience.

That should affect your flop decision I guess, not sure how much, but please comment on it if you want.

[oskar]

It doesn't change a lot though.
If he steals 30%, he still only has a pair or better 40% of the time, and 88 or better 33%... something like that.