Flat QQ IP with super nit CO open?

[Evilpopcorn]

(VP$IP/PFR [Street Aggression] 3-bet%)

CO : 13/4 [2 1 4] 4% over 187 hands

Is flatting here preflop fine vs the super nit ?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

UTG: $11.35
MP: $6.25
CO: $12.45
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $11.95
BB: $11.05

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.15) 4 8 Q (2 players)
CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($2.95) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

River: ($7.95) K (2 players)
CO bets $8.55 all in, Hero calls $6.10 all in

[JKDS]

its kind of a difficult question. the easy answer is ya, calling pre is fine. A conservative range is easily {JJ+, AQ+}, and we have 52% equity vs that range. We have 40% vs a range that is only AK+, KK+ as well, although we get into some wa/wb scenarios.

figuring out if 3betting is more EV is really the difficult part though, and requires some reads on villain. For instance, does he donk in 3b pots, floats with over cards, etc.

[bigspenda73]

how fast did he shove the river, could be a fold

[Stacks]

It's tough to do an EV calc on the situation to determine whether calling is better or not, because there are so many variables that can arise making it difficult to be certain. However, if we assume he is opening let's say 7% from this position (being the CO and all), and is only continuing to a 3bet with {JJ+, AK}, which is 3% of hands, then he is folding 4/7 or 58% of the time.

So 58% of the time you win the pot of $0.65c.

Let's assume the other 42% of the time he calls. In which case we have 47% equity in a pot of 31.5bb. And it cost us 15bb, so when he calls we lose on average -$0.19c.

Doing the EV calc on this shows that cbetting has on average an EV of $0.3c.

However, as I said, there are alot of other things to consider. This is assuming he only calls our 3bet, and also assuming we just open fold postflop, which we know neither is the case. Some % of the time we will hit a flop like we did and stack him. Some % of the time we will get coolered; however, I would think that since we can easily narrow the nits range here that postflop we can play pretty perfectly against his range. So given our positionally advantage I expect us to make more postflop in the 3bet pot when ahead, and lose less when behind.

Also, keep in mind that if he 4bet shoves we still have 47% equity, and only need 42% equity to call (8.50/20.15), so calling his 4bet shove is +EV as well.

So in essence, it's likely going to be +EV here to 3bet and get it in. That is assuming he isn't an uber nit and isn't adjusting his opening range by position. Which would lead to the problem of him not folding often enough to our 3bet, which is basically what makes the 3bet +EV in the first place.

HOWEVER, all of this must be compared to the EV of a call in which we can't be sure because there willbe a shitload of different board textures, and a lot of other variables to consider.

[Evilpopcorn]

Awsome post XxStacksxX ! Keep them coming plz !